Talksox - Red Sox Forum / Message Board - View Single Post - This is why you dont call up pitching prospects prior to being ready

jacksonianmarch · 05-15-2007, 01:18 PM

Are you seriously going to compare the marlins and the NL East to this division? Buchholz could probably start for the Marlins right now and be at least a NL average starter. This isnt the NL East. This is the dogfight in the AL East where every offense is vicious and loaded with premier talent. Hell, even the Rays are hitting this yr.

And most people in the know (scouting services that I have asked, mostly on scout.com and not the sox site which is fucking trash) do not consider college innings in their formula. Typically, you bring along a SP 30 innings at a time, starting them off in the 90-120 range their first full season and increasing by 30 every yr after that. Last yr, Buchholz threw 119IP. Therefore, if you want to stretch a starter out, you cap him this season at 149-150IP. Look at what happened to a guy like Prior.

First season out of college, they had him in the majors and he threw a total of 176IP. The next season, he threw 235IP (included playoffs) and now he is scrap heap material. That is a ridiculous jump.

Also, as nice as Buchholz composure and such is, his bread and butter is that he still overpowers hitters and although his walk totals are fantastic, they are more due to him overpowering hitters than locating where he should be locating. IE, he needs some work to fine tune his stuff. And right now, you may get a MLB average starter but it may take longer for him to become a finished product as he will just have too much learning to do and you could risk injuring him. But if you let him finish out the season in AA or AAA and work on locating all of his pitches, he will come closer to his potential sooner and could come up as a top of the rotation kind of guy.

And the bigger question is, do you need him? You have 4 guys in your rotation capable of throwing 200IP. All 4 are pretty damn dominant right now and you have a 8.5 game lead. Why risk it?

05-15-2007, 01:18 PM	#13 (permalink)
jacksonianmarch Deity Join Date: Aug 02 2006 Posts: 12,751	Re: This is why you dont call up pitching prospects prior to being ready Are you seriously going to compare the marlins and the NL East to this division? Buchholz could probably start for the Marlins right now and be at least a NL average starter. This isnt the NL East. This is the dogfight in the AL East where every offense is vicious and loaded with premier talent. Hell, even the Rays are hitting this yr. And most people in the know (scouting services that I have asked, mostly on scout.com and not the sox site which is fucking trash) do not consider college innings in their formula. Typically, you bring along a SP 30 innings at a time, starting them off in the 90-120 range their first full season and increasing by 30 every yr after that. Last yr, Buchholz threw 119IP. Therefore, if you want to stretch a starter out, you cap him this season at 149-150IP. Look at what happened to a guy like Prior. First season out of college, they had him in the majors and he threw a total of 176IP. The next season, he threw 235IP (included playoffs) and now he is scrap heap material. That is a ridiculous jump. Also, as nice as Buchholz composure and such is, his bread and butter is that he still overpowers hitters and although his walk totals are fantastic, they are more due to him overpowering hitters than locating where he should be locating. IE, he needs some work to fine tune his stuff. And right now, you may get a MLB average starter but it may take longer for him to become a finished product as he will just have too much learning to do and you could risk injuring him. But if you let him finish out the season in AA or AAA and work on locating all of his pitches, he will come closer to his potential sooner and could come up as a top of the rotation kind of guy. And the bigger question is, do you need him? You have 4 guys in your rotation capable of throwing 200IP. All 4 are pretty damn dominant right now and you have a 8.5 game lead. Why risk it?