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Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch
Are you seriously going to compare the marlins and the NL East to this division? Buchholz could probably start for the Marlins right now and be at least a NL average starter. This isnt the NL East. This is the dogfight in the AL East where every offense is vicious and loaded with premier talent. Hell, even the Rays are hitting this yr.
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I don't think we need him right now, but he can certaintly pitch well if called upon. I think he's capable enough to give the Red Sox a 4.00 ERA.
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And most people in the know (scouting services that I have asked, mostly on scout.com and not the sox site which is fucking trash) do not consider college innings in their formula.
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I included the college innings, because he has more polish than Dontrelle Willis had when he was called up.
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Typically, you bring along a SP 30 innings at a time, starting them off in the 90-120 range their first full season and increasing by 30 every yr after that. Last yr, Buchholz threw 119IP. Therefore, if you want to stretch a starter out, you cap him this season at 149-150IP. Look at what happened to a guy like Prior.
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Dusty Baker happened to Mark Prior.
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First season out of college, they had him in the majors and he threw a total of 176IP. The next season, he threw 235IP (included playoffs) and now he is scrap heap material. That is a ridiculous jump.
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Yeah, that was pathetic. He even missed a month and threw 225 IP in the regular season.
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Also, as nice as Buchholz composure and such is, his bread and butter is that he still overpowers hitters and although his walk totals are fantastic, they are more due to him overpowering hitters than locating where he should be locating. IE, he needs some work to fine tune his stuff. And right now, you may get a MLB average starter but it may take longer for him to become a finished product as he will just have too much learning to do and you could risk injuring him. But if you let him finish out the season in AA or AAA and work on locating all of his pitches, he will come closer to his potential sooner and could come up as a top of the rotation kind of guy.
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I think he's proven that he can shut down the EL league. He needs to be moved up to Pawtucket, and then to Boston in August, a la Papelbon 2005.
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And the bigger question is, do you need him? You have 4 guys in your rotation capable of throwing 200IP. All 4 are pretty damn dominant right now and you have a 8.5 game lead. Why risk it?
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No, but if Gabbard and Pauley start getting most of the starts, I will kill Theo and personally insert Buchholtz.