Talksox - Red Sox Forum / Message Board - View Single Post - This is why you dont call up pitching prospects prior to being ready

jacksonianmarch · 05-15-2007, 02:49 PM

Dusty did happen to Prior. But look at the jumps. If you consider the modicum that Prior should have thrown a total of 120IP in his first season and 150 in his second, he threw 135 too many innings in his first 2 seasons.

Consider Buchholz. He threw just the perfect amount last yr at 119. Right now, he is at 34IP. Lets assume the sox bring him up to the majors right now as a700 was saying and best case is he is pretty damn good. That means, he will get 25 starts for the remainder of the season ((162-37)/5). Assume you get 6IP from him per start. That is 150IP in the bigs alone. That leaves him at 184IP at the end of the season (with the AA numbers) and if he outpitched any of the sox big 4, he'd be in line for at least 6, maybe even 20 or more innings of playoff pitching. That leaves him 35-50 innings over where he should be. It would also cement a rotation slot for him next yr, something that would all but guarantee him 200IP when he should be at 180. You are talking about 70+ innings of overwork in 2 seasons on a young prospects arm. You dont want to do that to a prize prospect.

But then consider the alternative. Even though Buchholz is dominating right now, there is no guarantee he will be solid right off the bat. Garza dominated the lower levels too and got hit pretty hard when he came up. Some players cannot handle that. Wait until he has complete control over his arsenal and learns how to pitch before throwing him to the wolves. You could ruin his confidence, his progression or his health in the process.

05-15-2007, 02:49 PM	#15 (permalink)
jacksonianmarch Deity Join Date: Aug 02 2006 Posts: 12,751	Re: This is why you dont call up pitching prospects prior to being ready Dusty did happen to Prior. But look at the jumps. If you consider the modicum that Prior should have thrown a total of 120IP in his first season and 150 in his second, he threw 135 too many innings in his first 2 seasons. Consider Buchholz. He threw just the perfect amount last yr at 119. Right now, he is at 34IP. Lets assume the sox bring him up to the majors right now as a700 was saying and best case is he is pretty damn good. That means, he will get 25 starts for the remainder of the season ((162-37)/5). Assume you get 6IP from him per start. That is 150IP in the bigs alone. That leaves him at 184IP at the end of the season (with the AA numbers) and if he outpitched any of the sox big 4, he'd be in line for at least 6, maybe even 20 or more innings of playoff pitching. That leaves him 35-50 innings over where he should be. It would also cement a rotation slot for him next yr, something that would all but guarantee him 200IP when he should be at 180. You are talking about 70+ innings of overwork in 2 seasons on a young prospects arm. You dont want to do that to a prize prospect. But then consider the alternative. Even though Buchholz is dominating right now, there is no guarantee he will be solid right off the bat. Garza dominated the lower levels too and got hit pretty hard when he came up. Some players cannot handle that. Wait until he has complete control over his arsenal and learns how to pitch before throwing him to the wolves. You could ruin his confidence, his progression or his health in the process.