Re: Oswalt, Sox?
How does one evaluate a trade?
When I do it, I look at two things:
1) Just the talent flowing both ways must be about even for a blockbuster trade. Fans won't tolerate losing a superstar unless they see equivalent talent coming back in return, although that talent can be split into 2-3 players who will all make the team and contribute.
2) The multi-year value of the talent, less the price of the talent, most be roughly equal over the periods of obligated service for the respective players.
Those two aspects seem incompatible for Oswalt. Oswalt is guaranteed $60 million from 2008-2011, counting his buyout. Right now his VORP for 2008 is negative 1.8 runs, suggesting that he's pitching at roughly the AAA level this month. OK, such things happen. But looking at his pre-season predictions, PECOTA suggests that he'd only be worth $44 million over the next four years, suggesting a negative trade value. As good as Oswalt is, he's not worth his contract.
Boston is rich enough to take a few superstars for more than their fair market value--it's tough to contend in MLB if you don't overpay a few critical acquisitions. Boston may have done that with Mike Lowell last winter, just as New York may have done that with Posada. Oswalt may be valuable, even if overpaid. But giving away a package of talent such as Masterson, Lowrie and Moss for Oswalt is the stuff disasters are made of...and giving Houston much less isn't necessarily viable because Houston couldn't explain the move to their fans.
Accordingly, I don't see a deal for Boston here.
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