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Originally Posted by 26 to 6
Same should go for you, especially. You in particular have had a tendancy, since 2005, to rip Melky and his abilities. In 2006 when he went on his first hot-streak I remember you calling it a fluke and saying something along the lines of "I hope the Yankees FO buys into this and is stupid enough to hang onto him for the long-term. It won't last." Not exactly word for word, but it was something to that effect.
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I don't rip his abilities, I just find them deficient from what I would expect from a perennial contender. He's already demonstrated subpar range at CF and he's only 23. He's not going to get any faster. Not with his body type. He's thick in the middle. Not fat, but barrel chested, but he lacks the powerful legs that Kirby Puckett had to stay in CF. He'll ultimately need to move to a corner, more than likely RF with his arm. The problem there is that he doesn't appear, over a season's worth of work, to have the type of power one expects from COF star. Will he be adequate? I think that's a perfectly reasonable expectation. I can see him hitting 20 HRs regularly by his late 20's, especially in that stadium. Is that an all-star corner outfielder? Only if the fans juke the vote.
I'd love for the Yankees to find this acceptable. I'd love for them to pass on better players in future years to keep him in RF.
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Originally Posted by JHB
Just the way everybody carefully considered that he might improve with age before responding to my research and analysis last winter?
ORS, as a guy who understands statistics and research well, you know very well the frustrations of those who try to point out long-term probabilities that run counter to current stat lines. I've been there--but right now I'm bringing up what I wrote about Melky before Spring Training started, which now seems pretty solid forecasting. That seems eminently fair to me.
If this happens to be just an unprecedented hot streak, not an indication that he's developed power, well...exactly what are folks going to post that they didn't already post last winter, when they were assuming that Melky wouldn't get better with age?
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I don't doubt that he will improve. Where I think we differ is that magnitude of his improvement. I think his body type will lend itself well to doubling the power he's demonstrated to date. That puts him, like I mentioned above, it the 20+ area. All-Star performance from a CF, but I think that same body prevents him from continuing there. The usual suspects in the ASG for COF spots tend to do more than I see him doing. And, it isn't like he's going to get the pity "one from every team" spot being on the Yankees. That said, the fans could rock the vote. So, that first round is at the mercy of the rationality of Yankee fans. Great.