Manny Delcarmen's xFIP, by year:
| Year | xFIP |
| 2005 | 4.59 |
| 2006 | 4.04 |
| 2007 | 4.07 |
| 2008 | 3.95 |
That looks like very consistent pitching once the effect of fielders is removed. The trouble, of course, is that xFIP can hide two things that can raise ERA: either a decrease in ground balls (an increase in fly balls is captured, but ground balls are captured only indirectly) or an increase in line drives. Let's check:
| Year | LD% | GB% |
| 2005 | 16.7 | 62.5 |
| 2006 | 25.7 | 44.6 |
| 2007 | 17.0 | 44.6 |
| 2008 | 12.8 | 59.0 |
Looking at the peripherals, MDC should be having his best season. The biggest missing element is home runs: MDC has allowed two fly ball home runs despite allowing only 12 fly balls all season. A contributing factor is that 34.8% of his ground balls in play have been allowed through for hits and that 100% of his line drives in play have become hits, both figures about a third too high. Boston's only given MDC a .632 DER--any pitcher can look bad with that support.
The HR/FB rate will return to around 11-12% with time, not 16.7%, and the DER allowed should rise to around .700, maybe better if MDC can keep avoiding line drives.
This isn't MDC's fault, IMO. I counsel patience.
