Quote:
Originally Posted by a700hitter
Without Ortiz in the lineup, the offense will have big problems in those games that Crisp plays.
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What I feared is that this is what we'd see while Papi recovers. Fortunately, the offense hasn't struggled because JD Drew decided to become one of the best hitters in the AL. How long will that last? Crisp is, yet again, horrible with a .301 OBP, with -4.9 Batting Runs compared to average with playing time in 52/68 games. Despite them winning games at a good clip w/o Ortiz, I think they need to bring Carter up to DH.
The question becomes, what kind of line does Carter need to put up to offset the difference between Manny and Jacoby in LF? Ellsbury is about 12 runs better per 100 games by Rate2 (30 adjusted games this year and last for Jacoby, 46 adjusted games for Manny). Not the best stat, but it's the easiest runs based metric to quickly access. If you figure Ortiz is out for another 33 games (a convenient 1/3), then the defense lost is worth 4 runs.
Crisp's -5 Batting Runs were compiled in 52 games. Over 33 games, that would be about -3. So, Carter would have to produce more than 1 Batting Run over 33 games. Every team has played an amount of games in the mid-60's, so double it. Now, who over the course of this season has produced 2 Batting Runs having played 60+ games? I'll limit the findings to guys with no steals, as we know Carter won't be doing that.
Garko - 1.6 - 0 SB - .265/.355.400
Millar - 1.2 - 0 SB - .249/.332/.422
Hannahan - 1.4 - 1 SB - .235/.345/.350
(They are harder to find than I thought). Can Carter beat that? My money says "yes".