Reading all these minor league stats on the Internet makes me want to Ralph.
Or, to be more specific, ERALF.
ERALF is a Luck-free ERA. All pitchers, but particularly minor league pitchers, get their ERA distorted by circumstances. Last winter Clay Davenport invented the ERALF, described in full here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=7165
Let's use this to look at Bowden. Checking BR, Bowden has an ERA of 2.33 at AA Portland this morning. Is he really that good?
Not according to ERALF. His ERALF is 3.12, almost a run higher than his ERA.
Bummer. Does that mean that he's not as good as we thought?
Probably not. BP now offers MLEs for minor league players. Based upon his 2008 performance, Bowden projects to a 3.91 ERALF in MLB right now, or a 3.66 ERALF at his peak. BP also gives Runs Above Replacement (RAR), which is similar to VORP. Bowden is at 38 RAR in AA, translating to 25 RAR in MLB. That would put Bowden right between Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez as the fifth-best pitcher in the AL.
Look, probably Bowden wouldn't do quite that well if brought up to MLB right now--we're translating Bowden's best season, not his established level, and we don't know if he's gotten better or if he's gotten lucky in 2008 (even using ERALF doesn't eliminate ALL factors that might be called luck). But even if Bowden is only half as valuable as these metrics suggest--12.5 RAR at the MLB level thus far in 2008--that would still put him between Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang as the 33rd-best pitcher in the AL, and 33rd-best in the AL is a very valuable pitcher indeed.
And he's just 21 years old until September...yeah, barring injury, this guy is gonna be good.
