Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch
Now, as you all know, I do have a knack for the minor leagues. I am not a scout, although I do know a few and played for a couple (who I still keep in touch with). But I mostly scour the internet for information and watch as many MiLB games as I can to try and see how good a certain player actually is. A lot of times, I am going off of scouting reports from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Scout.com. I will say that these sites offer differing viewpoints at times and some of these sites differ in how strong they cover each team. Scout.com for instance, is an entity that hires out "beat writers" to cover each team. Some of their teams have no beat writers and are uncovered. Those are typically the sites that are floundering (jsinger's free content has rendered the red sox coverage useless). But for Yankee prospects, it really is the place to be (and Lane Meyer just jumped ship from nomaas to go to scout.com as well.
BA hasnt put out their list yet. BP hasnt put theirs out yet. But scout.com has, and BP is typically the least reliable of the three. So, here is my list, my top 50. They will come out in groups of 5. Feel free to bicker all you want, here goes
1. Jesus Montero, catcher, 19 yrs old Combined A+ and AA line- .337/.389/.562- Montero finished the yr as the #3 prospect in all of baseball. And he deserved it. He only appeared in 92 games thanks to a finger fracture, but he made it count. Not only did he have a .951OPS, but he hit 17 homers in those 92 games as a 19 yr old in A+ and AA. He also had close to as many extra base hits (43) as strikeouts (47).
Strengths His offensive prowess is difficult to underestimate. He has light tower power. He has a good sense of the strike zone. He makes hard contact. He hits for average, etc, etc, etc. And he's very, very young.
Weaknesses He has two. He runs like a lumbering Molina and he is a weak catcher at present. His arm is strong, but his mechanics are a mess and he isnt as quick as we expect most catchers to be
Ceiling His offensive ceiling is in the Miguel Cabrera/Pujols/whomever you want to throw in there. He is that good at a really young age.
Projection I see Montero as a below average catcher in the big leagues from a defensive standpoint, meaning that he will spend a lot of his time as a DH. He has the hands to play 1b, but his speed will severely limit his ability to play in the OF and in this organization, 1b is not a need. I project him to have all-star caliber offensive seasons as he is a very rare offensive talent. The question is, will he ever get to wear a glove.
ETA Midseason callup 2010 as a DH
2. Austin Romine, catcher, 20 yrs old A+ line .276/.322/.441. Romine will be cracking a lot of top 50 lists this upcoming year after his solid performance in the FSL. Remember, for those who see a mid .700s OPS, that the FSL is a notorious pitchers league. Romine was 8th in the league in HRs (13) and 4th in the league in RBIs (72). His overall total package won him the FSL MVP honors.
Strengths He has good power, not great, but is a very solid line drive hitter who is capable of being a 20+HR guy in the big leagues. He is also a very sound defensive catcher. He has a great arm and near perfect mechanics. Most scouts think he can catch right now in the big leagues from a defensive standpoint. He also has good speed for a catcher, swiping 11 bags this past yr and legging out 3 triples. And, he is a well respected leader amongst his teammates and other managers in the league. He is an all around player.
Weaknesses He is not patient enough at this juncture. His IsoPatience has sat in the .040-.050 range for 2 yrs now. The hope is that he will learn that as he ages, but he really doesnt seem to like to get into deep counts.
Ceiling I know most sox fans will think I will put Mauer on here, but cmon now. But I think a Russell Martin a la 2007 is a good ceiling. 20 homer power, 20 SB potential with solid defense and a good average.
Projection He is a player who I think is very close to his ceiling in a lot of ways. His offensive approach needs to add just a bit more patience, but his power is there and he should add to that as he fills out. His defense right now is good enough to be a top defender in the AL, so he doesnt need to fill out there. The biggest thing he needs is to gain experience and it seems NY is content to go yr to yr with him.
ETA 2012 Starting Catcher
3. Manuel Banuelos, LHP, 18 yrs old A ball line- 9-5 2.64ERA 109IP 1.07WHIP 8.8K/9IP 3.7K/BB. Banuelos will also be cracking a lot of top 50 lists in the upcoming months. He was one of the youngest players in the SAL this yr and he dominated. So much so that he was invited to the futures game. He is a small guy (5'10") but he packs a punch as well as 3 plus pitches. His FB went from topping out in the low 90s to topping out at 96mph this yr. His curveball came a long way and his changeup remained plus. He only walked 28 batters in 108IP, showing that his command is very advanced for his age.
Strengths He's left handed, was 18 for the entire yr in long season, tops out at 96mph, has advanced command, and has three plus pitches. He is everything you could ask for out of a young pitcher.
Weaknesses Not many. His curveball can be inconsistent at times, which gets him in trouble. And his frame could scare some people from considering him a potential starter. Other than that, experience is his only real deterrent.
Ceiling With his stuff and his command, his ceiling is as a #1 starter.
Projection With his frame, it is difficult to see him maintaining that velocity, but I do see him in the front of a rotation. I think he profiles well as a future #2 starter. We havent had a pitching prospect this advanced in the art of pitching since Hughes prior to his injury bug.
ETA 2012. They have been pretty cautious with him to this point, I do think he takes all of 2010 to navigate A+ and then splits 2011 between AA and AAA. I expect him to be in the bigs either in the rotation or the pen come 2012.
4. Austin Jackson, OFer, 22yrs old AAA line- .300/.354/.405 24SBs. Austin has been labelled as the Yankees CF of the future for quite some time now and he has delivered. Albeit in 2009, he delivered a bit differently than some had hoped. He improved his BA and his baserunner had improved significantly. But his power has been lacking as evidenced by the 4 homers. He's still young and he is still pretty skinny, so the hope is that he fills out a little and stays in AAA for another yr to get ready for ascencion into the CF pantheon in 2011.
Strengths He is a true 5 tool player. He has power, although he decided not to show it this yr. He has great line drive skills, he has a very good glove and runs great routes. He is quick and he has a solid arm.
Weaknesses He has yet to put a season together where he has showcased all 5 tools. Also, he strikes out WAY too much and a lot of the people in the know think he will eventually be better suited for the COF rather than CF.
Ceiling I think he has the ceiling of a true blue 5 star CFer a la Adam Jones. I am talking .300 hitter, 20+ homers, 30+ steals and a highlight reel in the OF
Projection He is an incredibly difficult guy to predict. He could end up as a perennial All-Star CFer or he could be wildly inconsistent and be a 4th OFer. I think he fits somewhere inbetween. He has a few All-Star caliber yrs mixed in with mediocre ones. Maybe like a Mike Cameron, especially with the K's.
5. Zach McAllister, RHP, 21 yrs old AA line- 7-5 2.23ERA 121IP 2.23ERA 1.08WHIP 7.1K/9IP 2.91K/BB. McAllister is a future version of the past version of Chien Ming Wang. McAllister makes his hay with his 2 seamer. He had monkeyed around with a 4 seamer, but believe it or not, there was no velocity difference. He sits comfortably in the low to mid 90s and throws the sinker 80% of the time or so. McAllister does have a plus changeup, but he has an average at best slider and thats about it. He doesnt strike a ton of guys out, but he gets a lot of weak hacks, a lot of grounder, and looks like he is a future bulldog in the rotation
Strengths Young, big frame who has only had one DL stint in his 3 yrs of long season ball. He throws hard and has one plus off speed offering
Weakness Not a strikeout pitcher and likely never will be. Will make his hay on contact.
Ceiling I think his ceiling is as a horse in the #2-#3 mold. He's a big strong kid who can throw that sinker in there and know it wont be hit out of the park. He has very good command of his repertoire as well, which makes his ceiling and his projection rather similar
Projection I think he can go two ways. Some people see him in the Scott Shields role. A sinkerballer who can be a bullpen ace if you will and can eat multiple innings if needed. And others think he could easily slot into the middle of a rotation. I think with his arm, his size and his sinker-change combo, he will be a mid-rotation starter in the future
ETA He'll get a callup in 2010 if just for a cup of tea. He's in the swing role in the pen for 2011 and might be in the rotation for some team come 2012.
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