Quote:
Originally Posted by One Red Seat
I think if one were to plot $/WS you'd find the graph to take on an exponential shape toward the high end, meaning the value is not strictly linear. Those in the top 5-10% are worth more than their value on the line of best fit. Just my opinion.
|
And that of Baseball Prospectus.
BP offers a stat called MORP, which calculates the approximate value of a player on the free agent market based upon their projected WARP. They haven't updated it from 2007, so the formula is:
MORP = $1,200,000*(WARP^1.5) + $380,000
BP projects Julio Lugo to be worth 4.1 WARP in 2008. Jeter, although expected to be a couple of runs worse on defense, is expected to be worth 6.0 WARP. Given the exponential function, that makes Jeter much more valuable:
Lugo: $10,362,837
Jeter: $17,871,809
Of course, Jeter is paid $20 million per year, and Lugo is paid $9 million per year, so Lugo might be expected to be worth about a million bucks more than his salary, while Jeter might be expected to be worth a couple million bucks less than his.
In 2007, Jeter was both better and more cost-effective than Lugo. In 2008, we'll see how it goes, but BP PECOTA suggests that Jeter is the better player while Lugo is the better bargain.
Edit: The new PECOTA cards are out this morning, with the 2008 MORP included (the 2008 formula isn't yet published, even though it's used, so I can't tell you how it changed.) Julio Lugo's MORP is $8,075,000; Derek Jeter's is $14,675,000. Lugo is overpaid by about a million by that reckoning, while Jeter is overpaid by roughly five million.
Re: Jeter Worst SS According To Penn Study
Linear Mode
