...and whoever's playing the Yankees - 2008 Game Thread

[BoSox21]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Your hope is that Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will buy your team back into contention. As constructed, your team will not win.

Which will happen because everyone associated with the Yankees I'm sure refuses to accept that the last playoff game in Yankee Stadium has been played

[yankeessuck013]

In spite of their recent lackluster hitting recently, I do think the Yankee offense will turn things around and will start to hit like most people expect them to. The pitching should be a huge area of concern for the Yankees and their fans. While there is no need to panic and no race was ever over by May 21, I think the Yankees have to take a serious look at their options.

Can they make a run at #3 starter who can eat a lot of innings. Any pitcher with an ERA under 4.5 should garner enough runs support from the Yankees to have an overall winning record.

It is near June 1, and it may be near time to stretch Joba out and see if he is a future starter or stud reliever.

It's shocking how Hughes and Kennedy have been such dismal failures. I felt they would get off to starts similar to Buccholz and Lester in Boston this year (no hitter excluded) and keep the Yankees in a position to win around half of their starts at least until they got late into the season and reached their 150 inning ceiling. If Wang pitches well, Pettite comes back, Mussina is decent, and Rasner continues to throw well New York will be OK. That is a lot of maybes, but it is possible. I really think The Yankees will try to trade prospects for an inning eater with a big contract.

[26 to 6]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Dude, read the posts. I've been on your side.

I'm not joking: the Yankees' biggest asset is their revenue base. The Yankees probably have the ability to sustain a $300 million payroll, if one considers the hidden revenue of the YES Network in the profit and loss statement. If they choose to do so, the Yankees can pick up any high-priced veterans from non-contending teams whom they might need: Greg Maddux, Bengie Molina, Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham, Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe might all be available for a price, with each of their teams already ten or more games back.

But when you write,

Who knows whats gonna happen, but I think you guys writing them off this early is as asinine as you guys think my statement is. Fact of the matter is that while they have experienced early struggles, and bad ones, this team, with the roster, payroll, experience, and attitude they have are bound to snap out of it.

you're dead wrong. As constructed, this Yankees team will not reach the playoffs.

I prefer to quote the BP Playoff Odds using ELO because it reflects the strength of the Front Office to adapt. A different report shows the odds and projected outcomes based strictly upon this season's performances. Here's that report:


Based upon what they're actually doing this season, the Yankees are the fifth-best team in a five-team division. It's not just that they have to overtake the Red Sox; it's that they have to prove that they're better than the freaking Baltimore Orioles. If Boston were to fold due to, oh, I don't know, distraction from Hollywood when they start making The Jon Lester Story, the Rays would still be demonstrably better. The Blue Jays are right behind the Rays. Even the Orioles are better than the Yankees, although it's close.

"Fact of the matter is?" Fact of the matter is that the Yankees suck. Keep insultingly misrepresenting me in your posts and the gloves come off, kid.

Your hope is that Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will buy your team back into contention. As constructed, your team will not win.

I misinterpreted your post, I thought those responses of
"Humungous Media Market!
Gargantuan Payroll!
Absurdly high revenues!" were meant sarcastically. You insinuating that I "insult" you is absurd, as of all the members on this board your opinion is one that I respect most. And what from my post did you take as an insult? I thought you were being sarcastic, so all I said was that despite what u guys think, the Yankees are not done. And despite what your BP report says, I prefer to let the games play out on the FIELD rather than in some Baseball Prospectus writer/stat geek's boring thoughts. The season is still early, and before we draw conclusions that teams like the Yankees and Tigers suck while teams like the Orioles and A's are favorites let's see it done over a consistent length of time. Lets play 75-80 and see where things stand before we etch the season in stone. What it comes down to is who can play the best ball over the course of 162 games. Say what you want about all the other aspects; coaching/managing, offensive woes, pitching problems, injuries, etc., frankly there is too much talent on the Yankee roster to be this bad ALL year. Every year when we get off to a bad start fans of opposing teams throw their hands up in jubilation and count us out; (maybe not you because you're not that ignorant) but we're always there in the end.

And so what if we need to make a move. Maybe we don't, but if so what's the big deal? How come when the Yankees make an addition to improve the club it's "buying" players, championships, etc; but when other teams make a move at the deadline to bolster their rotation, or lineup, or bullpen they're just going out and bettering themselves? How come the 29 other teams can make trades and acquisitions but if the Yankees doit it's a devilish act of greed? Logic? And if a move is made and we do make a run, it's not just because of that player, but because the TEAM played well. Sure the addition may help, but he doesn't play every position, so fact of the matter still remains that the experience, talent, and attitude of the Yankees is what will determine how they end up, not some player that we bring in to "buy our way back into contention."

[26 to 6]

Originally Posted by TheKilo

Here's the thing that many Yankee fans overlook though...this time last year, they had a positive run differential and really shitty bullpen performance. They were awful in close games. All they needed was a Joba-type pitcher to assume the 8th inning and to have Mo revert back to his norms and wins would begin coming (let's not forget the Yankees had a cakewalk of a second half schedule).

This year, the Yankees are playing in a vastly improved division (Rays? Orioles 4 games over .500??) and they really are playing to the level they should be (right now). Their pitching is a huge concern, run prevention will hold this team back all year and I really don't see them going 70-47 the rest of the way (which they need if they want 90 wins). 75-42 seems way unlikely at this point (for 95 wins).

Their offense will get better. The lack of production from Hughes and Kennedy has killed them and will continue to do so. Yankee fans seem to be pinning their hopes on "a magical run", spearheaded by guys like Darrell Rasner (or Horne or MucCutcheon, etc.). I see this team improving, but it will be VERY difficult for the Yankees to catch the Sox.

Lucky for the Yanks they are still VERY much in the WC race because I think the Tigers are done, so they'll have to beat the As and the White Sox for the WC spot, teams I think the Yanks are superior to.

I agree. If the Red Sox play near the level they have played thus far for the rest of the way there is no way in hell we catch you guys, but like you said the Wild Card remains wide open. I expect that the Yankees SHOULD be one of the best 4 teams in the AL come October. We just have to wait and see.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

And so what if we need to make a move. Maybe we don't, but if so what's the big deal? How come when the Yankees make an addition to improve the club it's "buying" players, championships, etc; but when other teams make a move at the deadline to bolster their rotation, or lineup, or bullpen they're just going out and bettering themselves? How come the 29 other teams can make trades and acquisitions but if the Yankees doit it's a devilish act of greed? Logic? And if a move is made and we do make a run, it's not just because of that player, but because the TEAM played well. Sure the addition may help, but he doesn't play every position, so fact of the matter still remains that the experience, talent, and attitude of the Yankees is what will determine how they end up, not some player that we bring in to "buy our way back into contention."

Individuals who use the phrase "the fact of the matter" when describing their opinions, not facts, diminish their credibility. Do yourself a favor: don't do it, and watch who does.

***

Did I mention "devilish act of greed?" You're projecting. MLB has established a perpetually unbalanced situation where big cities will dominate smaller cities. It's obviously lucrative. MLB has remained profitable for over a century, during which the New York Yankees have been the World Champions roughly a fifth of the time, with the rare period between implementation of the amateur draft and the court decisions introducing free agency standing as a striking exception to New York's dominance. When money matters, New York rules the AL. It's not devilish--it's an intentional decision on the part of league owners to preserve perpetually competitive teams in major media markets.

What it comes down to is who can play the best ball over the course of 162 games. Say what you want about all the other aspects; coaching/managing, offensive woes, pitching problems, injuries, etc., frankly there is too much talent on the Yankee roster to be this bad ALL year.

Let's watch what happens, as you request. I predict trades for veterans and a Yankees team that earns about 90 wins in the highly competitive AL East--I do not predict a static team that suddenly becomes competitive. I may be mistaken, and, of course, YMMV.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Let's watch what happens, as you request. I predict trades for veterans and a Yankees team that earns about 90 wins in the highly competitive AL East--I do not predict a static team that suddenly becomes competitive. I may be mistaken, and, of course, YMMV.

I want to know where those wins will come from? You just have to look at the pitching staff and I can't see 90 wins in that group. Unless Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon show up I just don't see it from these guys.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by SchillingIsTheNatural

I want to know where those wins will come from? You just have to look at the pitching staff and I can't see 90 wins in that group. Unless Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon show up I just don't see it from these guys.

Rasner and Bruney are 3-0 with an ERA under 2.50.

If guys like that can go 3-0, a couple of veteran pitchers might do even better. Even Barry Zito can win games given enough runs; Greg Maddux needs fewer runs. There are a few guys in the Yankees lineup who occasionally drive in runs, so those guys plus some reasonable quality veteran pitchers might result in wins.

[BoSox21]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Rasner and Bruney are 3-0 with an ERA under 2.50.

If guys like that can go 3-0, a couple of veteran pitchers might do even better. Even Barry Zito can win games given enough runs; Greg Maddux needs fewer runs. There are a few guys in the Yankees lineup who occasionally drive in runs, so those guys plus some reasonable quality veteran pitchers might result in wins.

yup, cause as bad as Mussina was last year, he still won 11 games and maintained a winning record

[das11209]

Originally Posted by TheKilo

26 - What about the Yankees makes you think they will be making any kind of run anytime soon?

I'm asking seriously. Not to be a dick.

Am I the only one to think Yankee season is a Groundhog day movie? Every May they struggle - fall behind and by October they are in the play-off?

Since 2004

2005 - Journeyman Small and Rockie's reject Shacon takes the Yankees to the play-off after a bad bad start.

2006 - Phillies give Bobby A and Corey L in a gift-wrap to Cashman - Yankees salvage their season.

2007 - 14.5 games out by May - Yankees almost catch the Sox with what must be Joe Torrie's best managed and last season in NY. Yankees also were helped by the Sox acquisition of Gagne.

I will not take Yankee's out of the AL East or Playoff race unless they are mathematically eliminated.

[Gom]

You guys are amazing. You don't seem to realize that teams get hot, go cold, whatever. Based on what they've done this season.....get real. The Yankees are slumping. The Red Sox aren't. The fact is the Yankees haven't been hitting. They will. Anyone want to bet on this?

Who would you rather have? Arod....Ortiz.....Manny....or Carlos Quentin?

Guess who's the top hitter in the league right now?

You're basing your stats on the first month or so of the year. There is little doubt the Yankees and Red Sox finish 1-2. It's just a question of who's one and two.

It's mid-May. One three game winning streak for the Yankees and one three game losing streak for the Red Sox, and all of a sudden it's a race.

If anything has taught ALL of us since 2003......

It's a long, long way 'till September.

As constructed....this team is fine. Their only real hole is 1B, one mid-reliever, and possibly one other SP. They are above average or average at every position on their 25 man roster.

[das11209]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

What do u mean ouch? Rasner has been pretty good.


.

Rasner reminds me so much of Kennedy and the success he had last year. Average stuff- depends on location - ML hitters generally catch up to that. The probability that a pitcher of that kind eventually becomes someone like Greg Maddux is pretty low.

[das11209]

Originally Posted by Gom

You guys are amazing. You don't seem to realize that teams get hot, go cold, whatever. Based on what they've done this season.....get real. The Yankees are slumping. The Red Sox aren't. The fact is the Yankees haven't been hitting. They will. Anyone want to bet on this?

Who would you rather have? Arod....Ortiz.....Manny....or Carlos Quentin?

Guess who's the top hitter in the league right now?

You're basing your stats on the first month or so of the year. There is little doubt the Yankees and Red Sox finish 1-2. It's just a question of who's one and two.

It's mid-May. One three game winning streak for the Yankees and one three game losing streak for the Red Sox, and all of a sudden it's a race.

If anything has taught ALL of us since 2003......

It's a long, long way 'till September.

As constructed....this team is fine. Their only real hole is 1B, one mid-reliever, and possibly one other SP. They are above average or average at every position on their 25 man roster.

Are you not the guy who generally give up on your team by summer?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by Gom

You guys are amazing. Anyone want to bet on this?

There is little doubt the Yankees and Red Sox finish 1-2. It's just a question of who's one and two.

Hmmmm...

I'll bet that unless the Yankees get 5.0 WARP1 from players acquired in trades, Boston and New York will not finish 1-2 in the AL East.

I want a bottle of Pernod as stakes...are you up for the wager?

[Optimist]

Girardi just confirmed on YES that the process of transitioning Joba from the pen to the rotation has started. They extended him a bit tonight and had him throw more changeups.

[das11209]

Originally Posted by Optimist

Girardi just confirmed on YES that the process of transitioning Joba from the pen to the rotation has started. They extended him a bit tonight and had him throw more changeups.

The bridge to Mo looks very fragile now.

I do not know if this will work out for them and may very well be a panic move. But because Joba has been so successful in the 8th innings (well not so much of late) - does not mean he will be a great starting pitcher.