...and whoever's playing the Yankees - 2008 Game Thread

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

If you would like I'll return in 20 minutes with some analysis to satisfy your statistical desires.

Pardon, but hasn't it been almost an hour since ORS took you up on your offer?

..the point I was trying to make though is that if Melky hasn't proven anything, then what exactly has Jacoby proven?? Shit!

Melky Cabrera: 9.1 WARP1 328 MLB games
Jacoby Ellsbury: 4.9 WARP1 76 MLB games

Jacoby has proven that he's roughly 2.3 times more valuable than Melky Cabrera per game.

Go look at your stats, I'll WATCH the game.

Watching the game without stats can hide uncomfortable truths. I don't blame you for wanting to watch the 2008 Yankees season without stats close at hand for reference.

[26 to 6]

Noneof that PROVES anything. Except that he's on a hot-streak. I'm not saying it's a fluke, but you have to do something for more than 76 games. I never said that Melky has proven much either, but you can't call somebody a proven player based on 76 games. How many is it gonna take for you guys to put him in Cooperstown, 300?

You guys jump to conclusions way too quickly. See Shane Spencer, Bud Smith, others.
Peace I'm out..

[Taliesin]

Well, I for one am taken aback by that analysis. It was astute while being thought provoking. I'm sorry but I really am enjoying this time in our history. Whining Yankee fans are my favorite.

Pardon the interruption and am no "stat man" by any stretch of the imagination. But, Melky has had 4 years of major league experience and while still young doesn't impress me as a superstar in the making based on his career numbers that I just looked at to pass the time. Also, let's look at the only season that really matters.

Small sample size because well the MFY's don't stay in very long these days, but there is a trend

6 games. 19 ABs. 2 R. 3 H. .158 BA. .158 OBP .316 Slg

Jacoby

11 games. 25 ABs. 8 R. 9 H. .360 BA. .429 OBP .520 Slg.

For those of you (me) that just watch the games as well and believe in intangibles beyond stats. Some got it...some not so much. And the proof as they say is in the pudding and I still don't know what in the hell that saying means.

I also didn't jump to conclusions about Shane Spencer. Anyone...anyone.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

And you really don't think Cano has the ability to win a batting title? What, because he's off to a slow start this season?

His inability to take a walk has exposed him to opposing pitchers. His batting average dropped last season and I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped again this season to under .300

Melky hasn't shown you that he's a good young center fielder with tons of potential? He's shown about as much, maybe more than Jacoby and Gomez have. Hits well, plays good defense (although he may zig-zag from time to time out there), has a good arm, runs well, etc.

I think Melky Cabrera is the worst CF in the AL East. I'm taking Ellsbury, Wells, Upton, and Jones over him...might have to take "part-time" Coco Crisp over him as well.

Kennedy has similar stuff as Mike Mussina and could one day be up there.

So Yankee officials say. He looks like a mediocre pitcher with average stuff to me. Nothing jumps out at you.

If Hughes's performance this year is what you're basing that statement on, what about last year? Give him some time, he needs more than 19 Major League starts before we declare that he is a failure. I'm getting a whif of some good old-fashinoed anti-Yankee bias with this one.

Currently I can't call his fastball a "plus-plus" pitch when it sits around 93 mph with little movement. I like his curve but because he lacks that other stellar pitch he must get the curve over the plate. If he doesn't then batters remain honest and can zero in on the fastball. He can be an adequate pitcher but thats not ace material. You guys talk about his changeup but it doesn't look like much to me. Phil Hughes looks like a poor man's Josh Beckett.

[BudLight]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

My thought was, and remains, that Melky Cabrera (four years) plus Phil Hughes (six years) plus the leftover salary dollars (a big factor) were worth more than Johan Santana (five or six years). Melky's looking OK this year; Hughes, we now know, pitched injured. I expect that he'll look better in 2009.

Ian Kennedy, though, is getting pitches six inches off the plate called strikes tonight--sure, he's great given those calls, but so's Kyle Snyder. Chris Guccione is making left-handed Orioles batters defend a 26-inch-wide strike zone, and that's impossible.

By the way, Burres is NOT getting Ian Kennedy's strike zone.

By the way as well, the Yankees are 9-1 in the last ten games of theirs that Guccione has called, including two Shawn Chacon wins and one Aaron Small win.

The pitch f/x data I reviewed this morning is telling a different story. From what I have reviewed Kennedy had one pitch outside the zone called a strike last night while 7 pitches in the zone were called balls. On the other side of the coin, Burress had one pitch outside the box called a strike while 2 pitches in the box were called balls.

[YAZMAN]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

..the point I was trying to make though is that if Melky hasn't proven anything, then what exactly has Jacoby proven?? Shit!

Did MJ steal your password or something?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

Noneof that PROVES anything. You guys jump to conclusions way too quickly.

To the contrary--that PROVES that there's a difference between their actual past mean value. I didn't make any claims about the future.

Except that he's on a hot-streak. I'm not saying it's a fluke, but you have to do something for more than 76 games. I never said that Melky has proven much either, but you can't call somebody a proven player based on 76 games. How many is it gonna take for you guys to put him in Cooperstown, 300?

Didn't say anything about the HoF with respect to Ellsbury. I have made such comments, IIRC, with respect to Melky Cabrera: he gets really poor support from most Yankees fans for some reason, when he's exactly the sort of player who develops into an All Star and a HoF candidate (not necessarily a HoF inductee). Ellsbury, OTOH, is the sort of player who doesn't grow into a power hitter, but who can be a very exciting and dynamic player through his twenties.

But if you want to look at the future, here's the big issue: until and unless Melky Cabrera fills out and hits for power, Ellsbury is a better player. I expect that Melky will overtake Ellsbury: I expect Melky to develop power, while I expect Ellsbury to lose speed. But right now, the two players are not especially close in value, even though I think that Melky Cabrera is one of the better center fielders in MLB. Thus far, Jacoby has simply been that good, and it's difficult to discount a nine-calendar-month stretch in MLB, including a World Series, especially when the minor league stats preceding it suggest that it's not a fluke. Check Ellsbury's stats:

MLB career stats: .319/.395/.463
MiLB career stats: .314/.390/.426

The two lines look pretty similar to me. And, while we're checking, these stats are even a little better:

Postseason stats: .360/.429/.520

Melky Cabrera has regular-season MLB stats of .272/.337/.389 and postseason stats of .158/.158/.316. Trying to defend him rationally and objectively as being in any way as valuable as Jacoby Ellsbury is an exercise in futility.

Go look at your stats, I'll WATCH the game.

I hope that you enjoyed the Yankees' walk-off win last night!

Melky was 0-3...but, hey, that's just a stat.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by BudLight

The pitch f/x data I reviewed this morning is telling a different story. From what I have reviewed Kennedy had one pitch outside the zone called a strike last night while 7 pitches in the zone were called balls. On the other side of the coin, Burress had one pitch outside the box called a strike while 2 pitches in the box were called balls.

Three points:

1) On Kennedy, check pitches to Markakis in his first at bat and to Huff in his second: that's where the outside strike zone was established.

2) Check when I posted: in the third inning, with Orioles already swinging at outside pitches, the umpire took away the inside strike zone on left-handed Orioles batters.

3) Burres didn't pitch where Kennedy was repeatedly throwing strikes called as balls. When he did, it was called a ball.

Certainly Kennedy racked up a number of balls throwing inside to lefties after my post pointing out that Guccione had expanded the strike zone. But check the second pitch to Jay Payton in the first inning: that was directly over the black of the plate, right where later pitches were called balls, and it was established as a strike.

Your point that Guccione called a number of Kennedy's pitches balls late is well-made, although I count differently than you do, checking the data files supporting the graphics we both clearly prefer to use. (I'm often off by a pitch or two using graphics, too.) Still, Guccione established a wide strike zone for Orioles hitters before taking a chunk of it away.

[Mr Crunchy]

tim donaghy was last nights ump in the bronx

[BudLight]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Three points:

1) On Kennedy, check pitches to Markakis in his first at bat and to Huff in his second: that's where the outside strike zone was established.

2) Check when I posted: in the third inning, with Orioles already swinging at outside pitches, the umpire took away the inside strike zone on left-handed Orioles batters.

3) Burres didn't pitch where Kennedy was repeatedly throwing strikes called as balls. When he did, it was called a ball.

Certainly Kennedy racked up a number of balls throwing inside to lefties after my post pointing out that Guccione had expanded the strike zone. But check the second pitch to Jay Payton in the first inning: that was directly over the black of the plate, right where later pitches were called balls, and it was established as a strike.

Your point that Guccione called a number of Kennedy's pitches balls late is well-made, although I count differently than you do, checking the data files supporting the graphics we both clearly prefer to use. (I'm often off by a pitch or two using graphics, too.) Still, Guccione established a wide strike zone for Orioles hitters before taking a chunk of it away.

The point I was trying to make was, while he may have been a bit liberal early on, he took away as many pitches for Kennedy as he gave him. Kennedy pitched a decent game last night, working out of tough situations twice where he could have just as easily folded and the O's could have blown the game wide open. He showed a tenacity last night that was missing in his past starts. Hope this is the start of something good for him.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by Mr Crunchy

tim donaghy was last nights ump in the bronx

Cheez, don't scare me like that, Mr. Crunchy...I had to double-check the box score. First the Pitch f/x thing where I check in the morning after I'm rightly called on my posts and Guccione has redefined his strike zone after I posted mid-game, and then you say I've even got the umpire wrong...

Umpires: HP: Chris Guccione. 1B: Tim Welke. 2B: Chuck Meriwether. 3B: Bill Welke.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index...lb_1&mode=wrap

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by BudLight

The point I was trying to make was, while he may have been a bit liberal early on, he took away as many pitches for Kennedy as he gave him. Kennedy pitched a decent game last night, working out of tough situations twice where he could have just as easily folded and the O's could have blown the game wide open. He showed a tenacity last night that was missing in his past starts. Hope this is the start of something good for him.

He did pitch very well. Lets see if he can continue it

[26 to 6]

Originally Posted by Mr Crunchy

tim donaghy was last nights ump in the bronx

It was definitely Guccione, as you can see Girardi gettinginto it with him here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Num9um0-ik

....oh wait,I get the joke. Donaghy the former NBA ref/chronic gambler

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

That isn't true. Maybe to an extent, but forever it's been the other way around. Sox fans, players, broadcasters and brass are infatuated with the Yankees. They make every move aronud what the Yankees do and what they anticipate the reaction. NESN postgame analysis used to revolve around the Yankees (idk if it still does because I stopped watching it because Tom Carron makes me want to pull my fucking hair out).

You know what has changed all of this?

October, 2004.

Since then the Sox have been the premier organization in all of Major League Baseball and it kills Yankee fans. It KILLS them.

Hank Steinbrenner has done nothing but reinforce this fact since he came into power.

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

For the sake of fairness lets say 2006. lol

And you really don't think Cano has the ability to win a batting title? What, because he's off to a slow start this season?

He certainly has the phyisical ability, just not the plate discipline.

Melky hasn't shown you that he's a good young center fielder with tons of potential? He's shown about as much, maybe more than Jacoby and Gomez have. Hits well, plays good defense (although he may zig-zag from time to time out there), has a good arm, runs well, etc.

Dude, I know you have a hard-on for Melky, but if you can't see that Jacoby Ellsbury is a far superior player than I don't know what to tell you. Nothing I can say can convince you of anything at that point.

You accuse Sox fans of homerism and them throw out things like this, and then COMPLETELY DISREGARD the stats that prove Ellsbury is better.

Kennedy has similar stuff as Mike Mussina and could one day be up there.

JFC, one good start and all of a sudden he's a guy with 200+ wins.

If Hughes's performance this year is what you're basing that statement on, what about last year? Give him some time, he needs more than 19 Major League starts before we declare that he is a failure. I'm getting a whif of some good old-fashinoed anti-Yankee bias with this one.

Hughes last year - 5-3, 4.46 ERA. A good back of the rotation starter?

I'm not willing to write him off either, but he didn't exactly set the world on fire last year.