No question. Molina is better than Posada.

[Gom]

Flaherty said it Thursday on YES.

"Molina gets you an extra strike every at-bat".

"At some point, you have to realize that what Molina gives you behind the plate is at least a run a game compared to Jorge."

This is what I've been saying. Do you have any idea how huge that is? For most of you, of course not, you'd have to actually understand the game to get it.

Through April 26, look at these stats:

Posada ERA: 7.97
Molina ERA: 3.09

I know what you're thinking...."He caught Wang...blah blah blah". Fine. Completely eliminate Wang. All 6 of his innings and 25 runs. Fine. Huge difference right? Wrong.

Posada ERA: 6.36
Molina ERA: 3.09

Posada has caught the 16-11, 22-4, and 15-5 losses. This doesn't count last night's numbers either...as the Yankees won 10-9. Small sample size? Sure. However, this gap is way too big to be assumed as coincidence. So...does Posada add 3 runs per game? He did last night, he added 4 runs, and the Yankees won 10-9. Keith Woolner completely missed, and most of you guys are sheep, and believe anything anyone tells you. Japanese manager use this CERA [catcher ERA]. American managers [as far as I know, don't]. Does that mean we're smart and they're dumb, or the other way around?

Posada had a great game at the plate, but another terrible game behind the plate [as per my bro, I was at the stadium, you can't judge balls/strikes as well]. You guys are coming to the stadium on Monday. Watch Posada behind the plate, and how many potential strikes he loses because as soon as he catches it, not only does he not frame it, he drops his glove. Pitches that are strikes are called balls.

I know most of you guys like laughing at people who watch the games and have played the game, and that clueless people like to track pitch f/x and then cry like bitches when the pitches they think should be strikes aren't called that way...but if you watch the game, you'll figure out why. The Red Sox are coming to the Stadium this week. For one inning, if it's a blowout either way, try watching Posada objectively. Then compare him to Varitek. Then, finally, you'll see what I'm talking about. If you remember, then watch Molina.

I'll even give you a quick primer, since I see more Yankee games than you do.

Forget pitch selection. We don't know what pitches are working, etc.

Molina sets up behind the plate before the pitcher goes into his windup, and puts up the glove for a target. He gets in position as the pitcher sets. Posada rocks back and forth, and actually puts up the glove while the pitcher is in the windup. He rarely puts up a target for the pitcher to shoot for. The pitcher is just guessing.

Watch how Molina frames the pitches. He pulls borderline pitches back into the strikezone, and HOLDS it there, allowing him to get a borderline strike call from the umpire. Posada does the exact opposite. He drops his glove after he catches the pitch, and pitches that are strikes are called balls. Sometimes he'll even stand up BEFORE the umpire makes the call.

I'm not the only one who thinks so either.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-v-jose-molina

Since it's now discussed in the media, does that make it more or less correct than when I first preached it?

Going back to the blatantly obvious point. Let's take a look at Burnett. He has had 3 games caught by Molina, and 2 by Posada. Here are the results from the games:

Apr 30 LAA 7.0IP 8H 4ER 1BB 5K
Apr 25 @BOS 5.0IP 8H 8ER 3BB 3K
Apr 19 CLE 6.1IP 3H 3ER 7BB 2K
Apr 14 @TB 8.0 3H 2ER 1BB 9K
Apr 9 @BAL 5.1IP 7H 2R 1BB 6K

Gues which three were caught by Molina and which two by Posada? It's only a matter of time before someone comes up with a reliable statistic that will validate what I already know.

Even the most ardent stat-head realizes that some statistics have more merit than others. They are formulas. As a scientist, you formulate a hypothesis and then you create an experiment to test the hypothesis. Just because the results do not validate your hypothesis does not mean that the hypothesis was wrong, the test itself could be flawed.

Remember when Moneyball was the all the rage? How OBP was all that mattered, and defense was inconsequential? That was basically one of the tenements in the book. Just a few short years later, Bobby Abrea and Adam Dunn got much, much lower salaries than expected, even in this poor economy, because of their DEFENSIVE rankings.

Just because it's written doesn't mean it's true. Maybe watching a game once in a while has it's merits? Nah...that would screw up your spreadsheets.

Try thinking for yourselves once in a while.

[jacksonianmarch]

nice try Gom. Small sample size for one. And for two, no matter how "bad" Posada is behind the plate, he does not make up for the significant offensive dropoff. Sorry Gom. If they were close offensively, then I would be on board. But when you talk about 300-400 points of OPS, then it is not worth it. If you really want to try and make a case, you'd go back through ERA in games Posada caught since Molina arrived and then of course get the ERA in game Molina caught. Then, you'd have to break it down further based upon pitcher to see how much of a difference, if any, there was between them on a pitcher by pitcher basis. If certain pitchers have a massive dropoff going to Posada, then you have a case for Molina being a personal catcher. Otherwise, I think you'll find it hard to find a significant difference over a bigger timeframe.

[riverside sluggers]

3 years/$39 remaining. Bench him, awesome

[Coco's Disciples]

Originally Posted by Gom

For most of you, of course not, you'd have to actually understand the game to get it.

Just because it's written doesn't mean it's true. Maybe watching a game once in a while has it's merits? Nah...that would screw up your spreadsheets.

Try thinking for yourselves once in a while.

Holy shit you're such a bitch.

[diony]

Posada is one of the best offensive catchers in the majors. He has a +130 OPS now, and you prefer Molina based on catcher's ERA? How exactly is Molina better than him? There's a reason why he's a backup catcher.

[Dipre]

Originally Posted by diony

Posada is one of the best offensive catchers in the majors. He has a +130 OPS now, and you prefer Molina based on catcher's ERA? How exactly is Molina better than him? There's a reason why he's a backup catcher.

Molina frames pitches better, and he doesn't get up before the umpire makes the call.

And he wonders why we all think he's a fucking idiot.

[Gom]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

nice try Gom. Small sample size for one. And for two, no matter how "bad" Posada is behind the plate, he does not make up for the significant offensive dropoff. Sorry Gom. If they were close offensively, then I would be on board. But when you talk about 300-400 points of OPS, then it is not worth it. If you really want to try and make a case, you'd go back through ERA in games Posada caught since Molina arrived and then of course get the ERA in game Molina caught. Then, you'd have to break it down further based upon pitcher to see how much of a difference, if any, there was between them on a pitcher by pitcher basis. If certain pitchers have a massive dropoff going to Posada, then you have a case for Molina being a personal catcher. Otherwise, I think you'll find it hard to find a significant difference over a bigger timeframe.

I don't expect you to understand. Small sample size? Yes. However, it's 1/6th of the season. What you're saying is that April games don't count?

Molina saves the Yankees a run a game. The numbers show THREE runs per game. Posada doesn't give you a run a game at the plate. End of story.

Originally Posted by DipreG

Molina frames pitches better, and he doesn't get up before the umpire makes the call.

And he wonders why we all think he's a fucking idiot.

Coming from you, that's a compliment. If you actually think that I thought you had anything to add intelligently, then you're even dumber than I thought, and that would be tough.

For the rest of you, just watch him, and then form your own opinions.

[CrespoBlows]

At least one run a game better? The burden of proof isn't very high for you, is it?

[Gom]

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

At least one run a game better? The burden of proof isn't very high for you, is it?

At least Crespo. When you watch as many Yankee games as I have, and I watch the players the way I do.

When I'm at the stadium, I am a fan who cheers and goes crazy because I can't see the little things. When I watch on TV, I look at their stance, the way they pitch, the way the catcher sets up. It's so blatantly obvious to me, but I don't expect a lot of you to believe me because you don't watch as many Yankee games as I do.

All I ask is that you try to watch the Yankees catchers objectively when the Red Sox come to town. Then tell me what you think.

[CrespoBlows]

No.

Think about that. 162 runs. At least. Do you know how much value that would give Molina? He'd be the most valuable Yankee on the staff. Oh, but that's why similar catchers like him are often labeled "backup catchers."

Besides, why the fuck should I value your judgement over concrete evidence from people who watch A LOT more baseball then you do?

[CrespoBlows]

Besides, if Molina is so good defensively, why was his CERA a 12.27 with the Yankees in 2007? The sample size was 29 games.

[ORS]

In a year in which more than one catcher caught more than 30 games, and one of them was Molina, last year was the first time he lead his team in OPS against since 2004.

The difference in league hitting after the first pitch is greater than .200 OPS between that pitch being called a ball or strike. After subsequent counts, the difference increases.

If "stealing" strikes was a true talent, and Molina was inarguably the best (Gom's words), he would lead his team every year, without exception. Last year was the first time in 5 years.

Gom will ignore this.

Carry on.

[Gom]

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

No.

Think about that. 162 runs. At least. Do you know how much value that would give Molina? He'd be the most valuable Yankee on the staff. Oh, but that's why similar catchers like him are often labeled "backup catchers."

Is Molina that much better than any catcher in baseball? No.

Posada is the problem.

Imagine having both Jeter and Everett on your team. One costs runs. The other saves runs. The aggregate total is much larger than it would be with say, an average shortstop and Everett.

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

Besides, why the fuck should I value your judgement over concrete evidence from people who watch A LOT more baseball then you do?

What concrete evidence? Woolner said that game-calling isn't significant, and I agree. However, I wasn't arguing game calling. I was talking framing pitches. Bill James said that while it is possible that catchers may have a significant effect on a pitching staff, there is too much yearly variation in CERA for it to be a reliable indicator of ability. Japanese managers use it as one of the prime metrics in determining a catcher's value.

So we have one saying no, one saying I don't know, and the 2nd best baseball league in the world that uses it a lot.

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

Besides, if Molina is so good defensively, why was his CERA a 12.27 with the Yankees in 2007? The sample size was 29 games.

I can't really answer that. Why did Posada hit .338 that year, I believe? Molina came over in 2007, he was learning the pitchers, I guess.

Originally Posted by ORS

In a year in which more than one catcher caught more than 30 games, and one of them was Molina, last year was the first time he lead his team in OPS against since 2004.

The difference in league hitting after the first pitch is greater than .200 OPS between that pitch being called a ball or strike. After subsequent counts, the difference increases.

If "stealing" strikes was a true talent, and Molina was inarguably the best (Gom's words), he would lead his team every year, without exception. Last year was the first time in 5 years.

Gom will ignore this.

Carry on.

I don't know who the Angels had as their catcher. I'm comparing Molina to Posada. Molina was traded to the Yankees in late 2007. Last year, he led the Yankees in OPS against. He's doing it again this year. So, assuming Crespo's numbers are correct, Molina was bad in 2007, with a new team and new pitchers for two months, and then been solid ever since.

Wow ORS. You have dropped to the level of DipreG. I like you, and I realize that these are fighting words, but they had to be said.

Last year, the Yankee pitching staff over-acheived. Everyone here would agree with this, I believe. Mussina won 20 games at the age of 39 I believe with Molina becoming his personal catcher. The Yankee ERA with Posada behind the plate, and discounting Wang's starts, is more than double what it is with Molina behind the plate. You guys choose to chalk it up to coincidence, or because someone else isn't telling you what to think.

Keep in mind...I haven't included pitch-calling, because I believe that in this case, Woolner is correct in stating that "catcher game-calling isn't a statistically significant skill". We haven't even entered into the discussion Molina's arm either, which is probably the best in the majors.

All I'm asking you to do is to watch the defensive game of the two Yankee catchers when the Red Sox come to the stadium on 5/4 and 5/5, and judge for yourself, if you have the capability to do so.

[ORS]

The 20 wins is a meaningless number. Stop bringing it up. He pitched better in 2001 by the measures of ERA, K/9, and WHIP yet only won 17 games. There are 3 major factors a pitcher can't really control that impact who wins or loses a game. One is BABIP/defense, two is what his offense does, and the last is how the bullpen performs in his game. It's childish to keep supporting your lame argument with such a worthless stat.

[Gom]

Originally Posted by ORS

The 20 wins is a meaningless number. Stop bringing it up. He pitched better in 2001 by the measures of ERA, K/9, and WHIP yet only won 17 games. There are 3 major factors a pitcher can't really control that impact who wins or loses a game. One is BABIP/defense, two is what his offense does, and the last is how the bullpen performs in his game. It's childish to keep supporting your lame argument with such a worthless stat.

Fine. Throw out that stat completely. No problem. Doesn't change my argument or my point in any way, shape, or form.

If Molina catches the same number of games as last year, Yankees win 100 games. If Posada catches, especially in the playoffs, the Yankees are out in the first round.