New York Yankees 2010 offseason thread

[jacksonianmarch]

The champagne is still wetting the carpet in the Yankee clubhouse, and while I will revel in this victory for a long time, plans for next season need to be made. This will be the thread I will use for rumors and what have you. Feel free to post your thoughts, it will take me a bit to come up with my plan for 2010.

[BSN07]

Olney guesses that the Yankees won't tender Chien-Ming Wang a contract, but they may decide to pursue another starter through trade or free agency.

[yankees228]

I'm a bit confused. What is Wang's current status with the Yankees?

[BoSox21]

Originally Posted by yankees228

I'm a bit confused. What is Wang's current status with the Yankees?

Head chef for Korean BBQ Day at Yankee Stadium.

[Gom]

Can we enjoy being World Champions for a couple of days at least?

[BSN07]

Originally Posted by Gom

Can we enjoy being World Champions for a couple of days at least?

Why not just ignore the thread? Why post in it at all if it's too soon?

[Gom]

To tell Jacko to enjoy this one.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am enjoying it Gom. It was the perfect end to a great season. And, it segways into one of my favorite times of year. The months of November and December are when all the trades are consummated and FAs are signed. I love player movement. This is like frickin heaven right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just noticed something. The last 9 yankee titles were during a democrat's presidency. Obama may not be worthless after all

[Coco's Disciples]

Funny stats: Yankee success linked to democrat president?

You made that thread.

[yankees228]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Just noticed something. The last 9 yankee titles were during a democrat's presidency. Obama may not be worthless after all

Jacko, not trying to be pushy, just curious. What is the contract status of CMW?

[jacksonianmarch]

He's under team control for another 2 yrs. But he's in his second to last arbitration season, meaning he is getting expensive. He made $6mil last yr to do nothing for us, and arbitration rules preclude him from losing more than 20% of his pay. He should get non-tendered, but I would want to have him back at a reduced rate

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, I am gonna start out my post and see if my fatigue lets me finish it.

First, one must look at the departures...

Andy Pettitte made $12 million in 2009
Jose Molina made $2 million in 2009
Hideki Matsui made $13 million in 2009
Johnny Damon made $13 million in 2009
Chien-Ming Wang made $6 million in 2009 (I think he gets non-tendered)
Xavier Nady made $6.5 million in 2009

That leaves a surplus of $52.5 million dollars

To look at the yankee plans, one must take it position by position.

Catcher #1- Jorge Posada
Catcher #2- Francisco Cervelli
Firstbaseman- Mark Teixeira
Secondbaseman- Robinson Cano
Shortstop- Derek Jeter
Third base- Alex Rodriguez
Left field- ???
Centerfield #1- Melky Cabrera
Centerfield #2- Brett Gardner
Right field- Nick Swisher
Designated Hitter- ???
Utility IF- Ramiro Pena
Utility OF- Jerry Hairston

That leaves 13 position players, which is probably the amount that we break camp with. Once all the pitchers find their grooves and settle out, we probably go back to the customary 14-11 split.

In terms of position players who are down the pipe but possible to make an impact on 2010...

Jesus Montero will be making his MLB debut in 2010. He has proven to be an elite offensive talent at an incredibly young age. The only concern is his defense, which by all accounts, is well below average. So, while Montero will likely be in the bigs in some capacity in 2010, I think it is more as a hitter and less as a catcher.

Austin Romine will at least be on the radar as he will be moving into AA. He was the FSL MVP and is both a solid offensive and defensive catcher. If catastrophe strikes in the Bronx and a full time catcher is needed, Romine has an outside chance of being the guy called upon

Austin Jackson the speedy OFer capable of playing all 3 OF positions completed a successful season in AAA last yr. But the lack of power was concerning for the Yankee brass, something that might buy him another season in the minors. Regardless, he will make his debut at some point

There are plenty of others in the system with bright futures, but they are at least a yr away. The above guys are the notable ones

In terms of pitchers...

SP#1- CC Sabathia
SP#2- AJ Burnett
SP#3- ???
SP#4- Joba Chamberlain
SP#5- Phil Hughes

In terms of starting pitchers who will be vying for the 6th spot and beyond...

Sergio Mitre will be in the Yankee fold again for 2010. He had a couple good starts mixed in with a lot of putrid ones. But he will be another yr removed from surgery and could be an asset if used right

Chad Gaudin is a guy who could be a contributor to the rotation if need be, but I think he snakes a spot in the bullpen for 2010.

Zach McAllister is another extreme sinkerballer with a good change and curve who is due to start the yr in AAA. He might not be one of the first line replacements, but he is a guy to definitely watch as the season starts. He looks like he's gonna be a good one.

Ian Kennedy dont sleep on this guy. He is likely to be showcased next season in some capacity. And either he makes enough of an impact to be good and stay, or he makes enough of an impact to be part of a deal for a need at the deadline. Regardless, he is pitching well in the AFL, which few pitchers are doing, and should be ready to go after he lost 2009 to aneurysm surgery

Relief Pitching..

So, there are 12 pitcher slots, meaning there are 7 relief spots. Here are the guys I believe have spots locked up

#1- Mariano Rivera
#2- Damaso Marte
#3- David Robertson
#4- Alfredo Aceves
#5- Chad Gaudin

That leaves two spots open.. Internal players vying for the last 2 relief spots...

Mark Melancon was solid in AAA but walked far too many in the bigs. I think he is the front runner based on his stuff and his makeup. All he needs to do is not get rattled and I think he locks up a spot in the pen

Brian Bruney the enigma continues. Some days, he is untouchable, others he sucks. He's under control through 2010, so this is his last yr in a yankee uni to prove he can hang.

Phil Coke made a name for himself after being removed from the Nady/Marte deal. Then he lost his velocity and his slider midway through 2009. If his velocity stays in the 90-91 range, then he goes to the minors. If his velocity is back into the 94 range, then he breaks the big club

Michael Dunn Lefty with a big fastball and an even bigger slider. Control has been his problem.

Grant Duff good guy to keep an eye on. After toiling for multiple yrs in the yankee system and sustaining injury after injury, his pre-draft velocity is back. He's in the AFL right now throwing 99mph. If he shows the same velocity in 2010, he could be on the fast track to the majors

There are plenty of other guys to keep an eye on, but the above guys actually have a good chance to make a significant impact in the pen


So, thats the team as of right now. But as we all know, the yankees wont sit by idly and not spend their freed up dough. So, lets look at positions of need

Starting with DH- I do think the yankees will retain one of the duo of Matsui and Damon. The rumor was that Cashman would offer a 2 yr deal worth $16 million to both players and the first to sign it will be retained. With Abreu's signing, that may need to go up by a mil per yr, but I do think we retain one of them. And that guy, IMO, is Hideki Matsui. Estimated contract 2 years, $18 million

Then you go to LF- This is a tough one to assess. NY wants to shed payroll. And after the Matsui signing, we are down to a $42.5 million surplus. If you assume that NY wants to cut spending by $10 million, then that leaves $32.5 million to fill 3 holes. So, that means we need to go outside the box. This is why I think NY makes a deal here for a player in their prime. And that player, IMO is...

Brad Hawpe- rumors are running rampant that this guy is on the block. And these rumors stem from the fact that Hawpe isnt a very good RFer and that is where he is playing in Colorado's large ballpark. They need guys with good range and Hawpe is right around average. But, Hawpe is exactly the kind of player the Yankees will be looking for. Lefty, he's 30 yrs old, he takes a ton of pitches and hits for a lot of power. And, when you look at his splits, 14 of his 23 homers in 2009 were hit on the road. He's due $7.5 million in 2010 and then would become a FA, something I think the yankees would not let happen should they like the guy. In terms of who they would give up, I have a feeling Austin Jackson would be one of the centerpieces, since Hawpe would be blocking him pretty much and Colorado loves athletic, 5 tool OF prospects. I would also expect the deal to be pretty pitching heavy as well. Maybe a 3 or 4 for 1 with high upside guys mixed in.

On to the rotation. With Hawpe in their clutches, NY has spent a grand total of $16.5 mil to round out their offense. That brings us down to a spending limit of $25 million. In this model, I expect NY to sign John Lackey. It just makes too much sense. He's 30, he's a horse, he's been good in the playoffs, etc. etc. etc. The guy just makes too much sense not to pass up especially since pitching was the factor that put NY over the top. For Lackey, I use AJ Burnett as a starting point and add on a yr (since Lackey is a yr younger than Burnett was last season) and 1.5mil per season. 6 yrs, $108 million.

With Lackey in the grasp, that brings NY's spending limit to $7 million. That leaves NY just enough to pursue a top notch reliever to replace Hughes move into the rotation. Take your pick between Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg, JJ Putz and Billy Wagner. I am sure we can snag one of those guys to man the setup role for $7 million per yr or less.

One other note, I would also sign Chien Ming Wang to a heavily incentive laden 1 yr deal with a pretty big 2011 option that vests at a certain IP mark. Mayeb $1.5 mil in 2010 with $2-3 million in IP bonuses, followed by a vesting option that becomes a club option if it doesnt vest in 2011 for $5 mil plus. If there is anything left in that arm, I'd rather see it used for us than against us.

So. My plan gets us to about $10 million less than the team we had on the field this yr ($208 million dollars was spent in 2009) and gets us under $200 mil projected prior to the season. And this would be the roster

C- Posada
C- Cervelli
1B- Teixeira
2B- Cano
SS- Jeter
3B- Rodriguez
LF- Hawpe
CF- Cabrera
RF- Swisher
DH- Matsui
OF- Gardner
OF- Hairston
IF- Pena
SP- Sabathia
SP- Lackey
SP- Burnett
SP- Hughes
SP- Chamberlain
RP- Gaudin
RP- M. Gonzalez (who I am picking out of that list)
RP- Marte
RP- Rivera
RP- Aceves
RP- Robertson
RP- Melancon (who I expect to win the last pen spot if not dealt for Hawpe).

Thats my team, and it that is the team going into 2010, we will be incredibly hard to beat

[jacksonianmarch]

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

Twitter is such a crappy newssource, but its news nonetheless. Apparently the yankees are hot on the heels of Lackey

[26 to 6]

Twitter isn't the source, Heyman is.