GOM's Plan for Yankee Dominance Part Ii

[Gom]

Dipre, this was a good thread in my opinion, which is why I re-posted it. Going forward, let's leave the personal attack out an merit the moves themselves and not he details we argued about. Let's be adults about this and go forward. Agreed?

Ahh...the thread you've all been waiting for...dreading actually. For I am convinced that Cashman read my column and followed it nearly to a T last year, and the end result is a championship. Two years ago, he ignored me and we missed the playoffs for the first time since 1995. Without further ado...and in no particular order...here we go.

1. Avoid Holliday. As good as his stats may be, he is not worth the money. First of all, his tenure in Oakland was nothing to write home about. An .832 OPS is more indicative of his performance in the AL instead of the insane 1.023 OPS with the Cardinals, in a weaker division and league. Also, he was horribly exposed in the NLDS. Of the 36 pitches he saw, 34 were inside fastballs. He hit one homerun, on you guessed it...a curveball. Considering the money he's going to command, would you rather have Damon AND Matsui short term or Holliday long-term? Let the Cardinals and Mets fight it out. Plus, with Arod, you need a lefty to even it out. Considering he will command a long-term contract, let him go back to the Cardinals or to the Mets, or as a suprise, the Giants. I doubt the Red Sox are dumb enough to take him on.

2. Resign Molina. 2 years/$4M. This may be the most important move the Yankees make. Posada was exposed as being an absolutely terrible defensive catcher. Anyone who watched Game Six of the World Series objectively was outright disgusted by how terrible he is behind the plate. Molina ended the season with a CERA that was a run and a half lower than Posada. His lack of framing nearly destroyed Pettitte. He still has a decent arm, but how many times does someone try to steal? It's all about the pitching, stupid. The Yankees beat the Phillies with nearly no production whatsoever from 1/3 of their lineup. Cervelli is decent, but could use another year of seasoning. The Yankees have too much money invested in pitching to NOT sign Molina.

3. Resign Damon. Two years/$18M. Abreu set the standard, which is going to be fair. Ideally, I would like to see a one year deal, but it won't get done with Boras. If he balks, let him walk. After playing the first few years in KC, then going to Oakland during their heyday, then the Red Sox and then the Yankees...I can't see him going to a middling team. This is tough because of Boras. A take it or leave it offer. His home/away splits are putrid, he is a by-product of Yankee Stadium...but since we play half of our games in Yankee Stadium, it's beneficial. Offer him arbitration and hope he takes it. One year at $13 million would be a Godsend. Then the Yankees can look to Carl Crawford next season as they are only on the hook for one year. If he rejects it and they can't work out a deal, we got two draft picks.

4. Resign Matsui. One year/$7 million. A professional hitter with the ability to hit lefties and righties, his market is limited as there are many DHs on the market. Winning is it's own drug, and the reality is we're starting to see what we saw in the 90's...players WANTING to play in New York. Winning does that for you.

5. Resign Pettitte. One year/$12 million. Pettitte will pretty much go year to year at this point. I don't think he will retire, he still has the ability to pitch effectively. He wants to come back, and the Yankees want him back.

6. Sign John Lackey. 6 years/$100 million. Throw the kitchen sink at this guy. His numbers are comparable to AJ Burnett, and he should command about the same amount of money. A quartet of CC, Lackey, AJ and Pettitte and we can book another trip to October.

7. Non-tender Wang, but bring him back. One year/$5 million. You can never have enough pitching. With four spots wrapped up, you leave a spring training competition between Hughes, Chamberlain, and Wang for number five, with the two losers going to the pen. I am of the belief that the 5th spot should always be a competition in the hope of catching lightning in a bottle. Plus, it will allow Girardi to stretch out the pitchers so they can save their arms for the post-season. This was the reason for going three deep in the playoffs.

Where does that leave us salary-wise? Molina is a wash, and so is Pettitte for the most part. Wang saves you a million. You save $6 million on Matsui, $4 million on Damon, and $5 million on Nady. That means breaking even and getting Lackey. Not only that, but Nady projects to be a Type A...so you don't even lose draft picks by signing Lackey.

The bullpen is unchanged. Cashman has assembled a bunch of pitchers who are interchangeable that there is no reason to go outside of the organization. Let Giradi figure out what to do with Marte, Coke, Aceves, Gaudin, Chamberlain/Hughes or both, Robertson, Kennedy, Bruney et. al.

This leaves a LOT of roster flexibility. Let's face it...this is an older team. Their core players are all on the wrong side of 35. Sooner or later, these players will start to decline. Jeter quieted his critics by turning back the clock defensively. Arod rebounded. Posada will continue his decline into oblivion. I fully expect Posada to catch a pitch next year, throw his glove down, and stomp on it. His contract the next two years will hamstring the Yankees. Mariano defies the odds, and is quite possibly the most amazing pitcher I've ever seen.

Most fans will see things as continuing. Father Time has a say in this. The Yankee players under 30 are nothing to write home about. Cashman has to manage the money until some of his players, the Jacksons and Monteros are ready. The Yankees cannot afford any more long-term deals. Short term deals at a higher AAV is a better risk.

A lesson to be learned from the Red Sox this year. They went into the season looking like they had a pitching surplus. It was a deficit by the end of the year.

Burnett, Joba, Wang, Hughes, and Pettitte have had injury issues. I wouldn't be surprised if all of them played an important role. I also wouldn't be surprised if all of them got injured. Let's face it...when it came to injuries to their staff, the Yankees were INCREDIBLY lucky this year.

Next year is the key. With the probably emergence of Austin Jackson, and the free agency of Carl Crawford, we could see two if not three changes in the OF.

I am a huge Crawford fan. With the excess in the pen, look to the Yankees to possibly package Melky with some of their surplus pitching to Tampa for Crawford and throwing him in CF. Gardner is not a major league hitter, and Melky is a weak stick as it is. Putting Gardner in there as well makes them a very weak team at the end of the lineup.

Cashman has done a good job in accumulating assets. This would allow him to use some of these chips in a deadline deal or to replace those that need replacing, and at a very low cost.

End result: Salary wash. Lackey replaces Gaudin.

Next...I will try my hand at Fixing the Red Sox.

[yankees228]

Wait, Gom, in this post you're advocating that they offer him arbitration and that it would be a great thing if he accepted.

Yet, in another post, you said the problem with offering Damon arbitration is that he might accept it.

I would have no problem with Damon being offered arbitration, and subsequently accepting, but how do you actually feel about it?

[yankees228]

A few more things...

I really don't think it's only going to take seven million dollars to retain Matsui. I could be wrong, but I just don't see him going for that little money. Granted, the only people that think he can play the field are himself and Arn Tellem, but his offensive production was really good this year.

I agree that they should add another pitcher, but that leads to another question. What do you want for Hughes and Joba next year? Personally, I want Joba in the rotation next year from day one, without any rules to worry about. But then there would be no room for Hughes. I understand that you can never have enough starters, but, Gom, how do you look at Joba and Hughes long term?

Lastly, I would prefer to leave the DH spot open. A-Rod, who has been injured the last two years, is signed for the next eight years. They have to do everything they can to preserve him through as much of that time as possible, and next year would be a good time to start. I would be opposed to A-Rod DHing around forty games next year. I think it would also be wise to give Posada some significant time at DH next year. If they want to keep his bat productive through 2011, they should consider having him catch fewer and fewer games. I wouldn't mind seeing a rotation in the DH spot between A-Rod, Posada, and somebody like Hinske (when A-Rod and Posada both play the field).

EDIT: By the way, nice work Gom.

[Gom]

I'm kind of up in the air about arbitration for Damon. On one hand, I think they should offer it to him. On the other hand, I kind of hope he rejects it.

[yankees228]

Originally Posted by Gom

I'm kind of up in the air about arbitration for Damon. On one hand, I think they should offer it to him. On the other hand, I kind of hope he rejects it.

Personally, I would like the Yankees to bring back Damon and Nady, while letting Matsui walk.

I wouldn't mind seeing them go into next year with Damon, Cabrera, Swisher, Nady, and Gardner as the team's outfielders, with no permanent DH (for the reasons I mentioned earlier). What do you think of that?

[Gom]

Originally Posted by yankees228

A few more things...

I really don't think it's only going to take seven million dollars to retain Matsui. I could be wrong, but I just don't see him going for that little money. Granted, the only people that think he can play the field are himself and Arn Tellem, but his offensive production was really good this year.

I agree that they should add another pitcher, but that leads to another question. What do you want for Hughes and Joba next year? Personally, I want Joba in the rotation next year from day one, without any rules to worry about. But then there would be no room for Hughes. I understand that you can never have enough starters, but, Gom, how do you look at Joba and Hughes long term?

Lastly, I would prefer to leave the DH spot open. A-Rod, who has been injured the last two years, is signed for the next eight years. They have to do everything they can to preserve him through as much of that time as possible, and next year would be a good time to start. I would be opposed to A-Rod DHing around forty games next year. I think it would also be wise to give Posada some significant time at DH next year. If they want to keep his bat productive through 2011, they should consider having him catch fewer and fewer games. I wouldn't mind seeing a rotation in the DH spot between A-Rod, Posada, and somebody like Hinske (when A-Rod and Posada both play the field).

EDIT: By the way, nice work Gom.

I'm not sure on Joba and Hughes. Joba's decreased velocity is a major concern to me. He ramped it up to 96 in the playoffs, but that's still 2-3 MPH down from last year. I think all these rules screwed with his head. I know I'm guessing here, but I would swear I could see this guy thinking during a game "Ok, I got two strikes with my fastball...let me try my curveball...oh wait, my changeup, or maybe the slider...I mean, I do have four pitches...etc". I think with the Yankees depth in the pen, he should just go out and throw. Go as hard as you can, as long as you can....attack the hitters. He'd probably go farther in games if he just went after the hitters instead of pussyfooting around [how do you like that reference?].

As for Hughes, I think the Yankees should start him out in the pen. Wait to see how the pitchers do...and if need be, start lengthening him in June/July, so that by August he's in the rotation. I am worried about his meltdown in the playoffs.

Plus, and I know some here will believe me...he wasn't anywhere near as good as his numbers indicate. What I mean to say, from what I saw of him, he had probably the most amount of luck of any pitcher who pitched for the Yankees in recent years IMO. I would see every at bat, he would miss his spot by a foot or more, and the batters would just miss. In the post-season, those misses were getting hammered.

I'm not sold on either one, but I'm not down on them either. I think the jury's still out on them.

As for the DH spot, a rotating DH won't work. This is why I like Matsui. If Matsui DH's 6 days a week, once a week you can give Arod, Jeter, or Posada a day off. However, Matsui is one of the rare lefty hitters who can hit lefty pitching, and he is murder on righties. He is a much better hitter than Posada in that he can hit good pitching.

Another thing the Yankees could do is that they could go after a centerfielder, and then shift over Melky/Gardner over to left. In my opinion, Damon is such a liability in the outfield that his ability to play left field is pretty much insignificant compared to Matsui's inability to play out there at all.

[26 to 6]

Originally Posted by yankees228

Personally, I would like the Yankees to bring back Damon and Nady, while letting Matsui walk.

I wouldn't mind seeing them go into next year with Damon, Cabrera, Swisher, Nady, and Gardner as the team's outfielders, with no permanent DH (for the reasons I mentioned earlier). What do you think of that?

I agree 100% Although I wouldn't be opposed to Damon leaving, getting that draft pick, and retaining Matsui. Either way though I'm on board with bringing back Nady and one of Matsui or Damon.

As for Joba and Hughes, I think ideally Joba should go to the pen and Hughes should be starting, whether he start the season in Scranton or in New York, I think he should go into the season as a starter. I also wouldn't be opposed to both of them starting, as long as there are no restrictions on Joba. But if they do that who would you guys propose they go out and get to set up for Mo? I don't think you can rely 100% on Coke and Robertson and would definitely need some sort of insurance down there.

[yankees228]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

I agree 100% Although I wouldn't be opposed to Damon leaving, getting that draft pick, and retaining Matsui. Either way though I'm on board with bringing back Nady and one of Matsui or Damon.

As for Joba and Hughes, I think ideally Joba should go to the pen and Hughes should be starting, whether he start the season in Scranton or in New York, I think he should go into the season as a starter. I also wouldn't be opposed to both of them starting, as long as there are no restrictions on Joba. But if they do that who would you guys propose they go out and get to set up for Mo? I don't think you can rely 100% on Coke and Robertson and would definitely need some sort of insurance down there.

Well, yeah, the bullpen is an issue. For arguments sake, lets say Joba and Hughes are both starters next year. That leaves them with...

Rivera RHP
Robertson RHP
Marte RHP
Coke RHP
Aceves RHP

Overall, that's pretty good, but one solid setup man would really make it an enormous strength, like it was towards the end of last year.

I would love to get Fernando Rodney, but he might want to close. Same with Rafael Soriano. In my opinion, those are the two best relievers on the market. They could consider going after Rafael Betancourt, but he might not be good enough to sacrifice the required draft picks. All three of those guys are type A free agents.

[yeszir]

Any person making any semblance of an attack here earns a permanent ban from talksox. Anyone responding to an attack earns a permanent ban. This goes for attacks disguised as jokes and sarcastic comments as well.

[Gom]

Easy, killer. Dipre and I can play nice when we want to. We just choose not to most of the time.

[Gom]

Originally Posted by 26 to 6

I agree 100% Although I wouldn't be opposed to Damon leaving, getting that draft pick, and retaining Matsui. Either way though I'm on board with bringing back Nady and one of Matsui or Damon.

As for Joba and Hughes, I think ideally Joba should go to the pen and Hughes should be starting, whether he start the season in Scranton or in New York, I think he should go into the season as a starter. I also wouldn't be opposed to both of them starting, as long as there are no restrictions on Joba. But if they do that who would you guys propose they go out and get to set up for Mo? I don't think you can rely 100% on Coke and Robertson and would definitely need some sort of insurance down there.

The problem with Hughes starting is the whole innings limit thing. Personally, I agree with you if I had to pick one in the rotation. Next year we have the Hughes Rules.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am okay with Hughes' rules as long as nobody else is on any innings limit. And, Hughes needs to be the #5 by default due to the innings limits.

The strength of our rotation will be the top 3 IMO. CC, AJ and either Pettitte or Lackey.

And we need to make a decision for good on Chamberlain. I think he ends up as our #4 starter with no innings limits. People seem to think he was a complete and total bust as a starter in NY. But look at the numbers from Joba prior to when they started monkeying with him.

Before: 126.2IP 123H 56ER 62BB 109K 3.97ERA 1.46WHIP
After: 30.2IP 44H 27ER 14BB 24K 7.92ERA 1.89WHIP

The before numbers actually look a lot like Burnett. ERA around 4, WHIP in the 1.4 range, and K/9 close to 8 or higher. Now, Burnett was a lot more durable, but Joba was also in his first full yr of starting in the AL East. I did notice the stuff difference, but at the same time, he never "lost" the heat. He just seemed to save it for a little later.

So NY has to make their decision. Joba has a good start and a terrible finish. Was he just tired? Maybe. Is he better as a reliever? Well, all young players fare better in shorter stints, so that isnt really a good barometer since we probably expect to see Joba around in pinstripes for awhile.

[Gom]

Meh...I'm not sold on anyone unless they can do it for a full season. Like I said, Joba's arm strength and Hughes's blowup in the playoffs worry me. Plus, IMO Hughes was incredibly lucky last year. His control will take some time, but I am not sold on Hughes being a solid pitcher yet.

[jacksonianmarch]

In terms of who we get for the bullpen, I am okay with who we already have.

Mariano closing
Aceves in the swing role.
Robertson slides to setup.
Marte, if he is healthy can be a setup man. He was lights out in the post season
Bruney will be an option
Mark Melancon will end up having an important role with the team by the end of the yr, IMO.
Phil Coke will be an option, but I dont know if he makes the team if his stuff doesnt come back
Then there's the standard retreads of Ramirez, Albaladejo, etc.
Then there are the other young bucks who could be an option in Duff, Dunn, Kennedy, McAllister, etc.

There are going to be options. I dont have a problem with an improvement here or there. But I do think we have enough talent internally to have a good pen. The question is, how long will it take to secure a good pen. Last yr, it took a month to find the right combo. Will it be the same this yr?

[yankees228]

Originally Posted by Gom

Meh...I'm not sold on anyone unless they can do it for a full season. Like I said, Joba's arm strength and Hughes's blowup in the playoffs worry me. Plus, IMO Hughes was incredibly lucky last year. His control will take some time, but I am not sold on Hughes being a solid pitcher yet.

I'm not sold on either, by any means. However, at some point, you have to see what these guys have. In my opinion, one or both of them should be in the rotation.

However, and I mentioned this earlier in thread, if they both start, what do you do about the bullpen. Overall, I think it's pretty good, but it would be in need of someone to fill Hughes role.