Yankee Rotation

[Plumpamania]

In another forum, that is litered with Yankee trash...well...they are arguing that the Yankee rotation is actually better than the Red Sox rotation.

Mussina = Schilling
Wang > Beckett (not on potential)
Pettite < Matsuzaka
Johnson < Papelbon
Igawa/Pavano < Wakefield

That's at least how I view it and I think I do it without bias. But they then are contingent to argue that Karstens and Rasner are good back up options if one of their starters is injured. Which I disagree with, since Hughes will almost be the top choice to be called up.

Anyways, what do you guys think?

[Coco's Disciples]

Mussina>Schilling
-Schilling is going to decline this year. Mussina is still a real good pitcher.

Not so sure about Paps vs. Johnson...Johnson's gonna rebound to about a 4 ERA, 15 wins, etc...they could be about equal this year.

[Plumpamania]

That's one argument the Mussina > Schilling one that I argued.

Mussina in the last three years has had elbow problems, that restricted him to sub ERA+ (below a 100 ERA+). Then he came out of nowhere last year with that season.

Last season they were only 9 ERA+ points apart. I'd still call them a wash.

[BoSox34]

Mussina > Schilling
Wang < Beckett
Pettite < Matsuzaka
Johnson < Papelbon
Igawa/Pavano < Wakefield

There's no question that our rotation is superior.

[Plumpamania]

I wouldn't call Wang < Beckett.

Last year Wang was much better. If you did potential it would be Wang < Beckett, but off results its Wang > Beckett.

[example1]

Okay, this is all about opinion so I'll throw in my 2 cents... I'm ranking this on how I think the pitchers will be, rather than the order they will necessarily be in.

Mussina < Matsuzaka
Wang > Beckett
Pettitte = Schilling
Johnson = Wakefield
Igawa < Papelbon

I see two clearcut Sox advantages and one for the Yankees. All-in-all though I think their starting pitching is pretty good. I like the Sox pitching better for the next few years, that's for sure. I don't think Wang's upside is much higher than he's at now, as he's a gb pitcher and that's essentially what he's getting at this point. He's not going to have a 2.00 ERA and 200+ k's in any season. Beckett, Papelbon and Matsuzaka could all do that.

Finally, I suppose I should explain how I could have Matsuzaka as better than Mussina. I think they're actually pretty close but Matsuzaka has some particularly nasty stuff. We'll check in later in the season, but I think that those who have seen him believe he will be very good. Jorge Cantu, when asked by an ESPN commentator where on a scale of 1-10 Matsuzaka would fit in, Cantu surprised him by saying "Oh, he's up there. Probably a 9, possbly a 10". Mussina is a good pitcher but he's no longer over powering. I think Wang/Matsuzaka and Mussina/Schilling are the best potential matchups in the group. Although a Randy Johnson/Papelbon duel wouldn't be bad either

There is a reason that the Sox have had their eyes on Monster since 1999 Koishen and that Theo says he actually hoped Matsuzaka wouldn't do well in the WBC so he might stay more under the radar. The Yankees bid 30+ and the Mets 40+, so I think we're talking about one of the games elite pitchers.

Oh yeah, he's also one of the healthiest and most projectable pitchers around. His motion is smooth and seems very fluid and he's just a pitching machine. The sox will slow down how much he's used but they also said they weren't going to completely change the way he pitches. He's an innings eater, pitching lots of CG's over his career. They aren't worried that its a sign that his arm is likely to go, they see it as a sign that he's in excellent pitching condition.

[Gom]

Originally Posted by Plumpamania

I wouldn't call Wang < Beckett.

Last year Wang was much better. If you did potential it would be Wang < Beckett, but off results its Wang > Beckett.

I don't even see potential. Wang throws just as hard as Beckett, gives up less homeruns, has better control. I don't see Beckett better in any way shape or form.

Mussina > Schilling
Wang < Beckett
Pettite < Matsuzaka
Johnson < Papelbon
Igawa/Pavano < Wakefield

The question is not who is number one, etc. The only ones that really matter are 1-4. No one goes with a fifth in the playoffs. However, I will include all 5.

So, the Yankees sport Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Johnson, and Igawa/Pavano. The Red Sox sport Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield.

In the matchups of number one's, Wang tops anything on either side. Let's put him up against Beckett, since that seems to be the consensus in this argument. No contest. Edge: Big-Yankees.

Schilling versus Mussina. Both pitchers are getting up there in years, but Mussina had been more consistent. Edge: Yankees...very slight.

Matsuzaka vs Pettitte. Toughest one to call. Pettitte comes with a track record, Matsuzaka could be boom or bust. Pettitte has the pedigree, Matsuzaka has the hype. No one really knows this one. Edge: pick'em [I know Sox fans will disagree, but this could go anywhere from huge edge yanks to huge edge/no contest sox]. No one really knows.

Papelbon vs Johnson. Johnson was the benificiary of a potent Yankees offense. Papelbon was dominant in the pen, but problems with his shoulder lead to question marks. However, I will take Papelbon's youth and skill. It's not like Randy Johnson is the most durable these days either. Edge: Red Sox.

Wakefield vs the 2 headed monster. Wakefield will put up the same numbers he does every year. The combination of Igawa and Pavano should yield about the same results as Wakefield does alone. Edge: Who cares?

I admit, the Sox rotation has more potential, as they have 3 starters under 30 and are still maturing, against the Yankees one in Wang. However, going into next season, I think there is a slight edge to the Yankees only because of the unknown of Matsuzaka. If he comes as advertised, then the edge is huge to the Red Sox.

[Coco's Disciples]

You better care about the 5th starter, cause if it's poor, thats a few losses tacked on...every game is important, and the 5th spot gets 35.

[Gom]

Originally Posted by Coco's Disciples

You better care about the 5th starter, cause if it's poor, thats a few losses tacked on...every game is important, and the 5th spot gets 35.

Eh...we're in the playoffs. That much I'm pretty sure of. So it doesn't really matter. The 5th starter will go close to .500. For both teams.

[Coco's Disciples]

There are no givens...in 2005, you made the playoffs because of Chacon and Small basically...5th starters.

[example1]

Originally Posted by Gom

I don't even see potential. Wang throws just as hard as Beckett, gives up less homeruns, has better control. I don't see Beckett better in any way shape or form.

From Bill James handbook:

Fastest average fastball:

Hernandez, SEA 95.2
Verlander, DET 95.1
Beckett, BOS 94.7
Sabathia, CLE 93.7
Bonderman, DET 93.3
Escobar, LAA 93.1
Wang, NYY 93.1

Pitches 95+ Velocity

Beckett 1072
Verlander 992
Hernandez 950
Zumaya (!!!) 884
Cabrera 834
Burnett 677

Long story short, I don't think its factually correct to say Wang throws just as hard as Beckett. If Beckett could locate like Wang then his fastball would be a better pitch than Wang's. Just to clarify.

Mussina > Schilling
Wang < Beckett
Pettite < Matsuzaka
Johnson < Papelbon
Igawa/Pavano < Wakefield

The question is not who is number one, etc. The only ones that really matter are 1-4. No one goes with a fifth in the playoffs. However, I will include all 5.

So, the Yankees sport Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Johnson, and Igawa/Pavano. The Red Sox sport Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield.

In the matchups of number one's, Wang tops anything on either side. Let's put him up against Beckett, since that seems to be the consensus in this argument. No contest. Edge: Big-Yankees.

True, until after Matsuzaka's first MLB start at which point people will realize that every one of his pitches is as good or better than Wang's best. Just sayin'...

Schilling versus Mussina. Both pitchers are getting up there in years, but Mussina had been more consistent. Edge: Yankees...very slight.


Matsuzaka vs Pettitte. Toughest one to call. Pettitte comes with a track record, Matsuzaka could be boom or bust. Pettitte has the pedigree, Matsuzaka has the hype. No one really knows this one. Edge: pick'em [I know Sox fans will disagree, but this could go anywhere from huge edge yanks to huge edge/no contest sox]. No one really knows.

Papelbon vs Johnson. Johnson was the benificiary of a potent Yankees offense. Papelbon was dominant in the pen, but problems with his shoulder lead to question marks. However, I will take Papelbon's youth and skill. It's not like Randy Johnson is the most durable these days either. Edge: Red Sox.

Wakefield vs the 2 headed monster. Wakefield will put up the same numbers he does every year. The combination of Igawa and Pavano should yield about the same results as Wakefield does alone. Edge: Who cares?

I admit, the Sox rotation has more potential, as they have 3 starters under 30 and are still maturing, against the Yankees one in Wang. However, going into next season, I think there is a slight edge to the Yankees only because of the unknown of Matsuzaka. If he comes as advertised, then the edge is huge to the Red Sox.

he's coming, as advertized. We will re-evaluate in a few months, but this kid is going to be a dominant pitcher unlike ones we've seen in awhile in MLB in terms of the bredth of his repetoire and ability to throw 95.

[example1]

Originally Posted by Gom

Eh...we're in the playoffs. That much I'm pretty sure of. So it doesn't really matter. The 5th starter will go close to .500. For both teams.

So you clearly don't think the Red Sox are a threat, huh? If you did then of course you would be worried about the playoffs, cause the Twins, White Sox and Tigers are still there to challenge for a WC spot. No respect for the Sox despite their recent upgrades, the fact that they led the AL East with essentially the same team for much of last year (minus, of course the new SS, #1-2 starter, RF and the three new RPs) and the further development of their young guys? Man oh man... I hope the Yankees miss the playoffs this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by BoSox34

Mussina > Schilling
Wang < Beckett
Pettite < Matsuzaka
Johnson < Papelbon
Igawa/Pavano < Wakefield

There's no question that our rotation is superior.

Man, the assumption of Matsuzaka in a new league being better than Pettitte seems a little unfounded for now at least.

Wang was the ace and is currently the best pitcher on either staff
Mussina was the 2nd best pitcher between the two teams last season.
Schilling came in at #3. Pettitte would be at #4 followed by Wake at 5. Johnson and Beckett were equally sucky tied at 6. Matsuzaka, Papelbon and Igawa we have no idea.

If you want to talk about potential, well it is a double edged sword going both ways anyway. Johnson has the potential and still has the stuff to be an ace. Matsuzaka could be the best Japanese import since Nintendo. Beckett could reach down and find a breaking pitch that he wont bounce. Pettitte could continue his second half surge and be dominant.

Who knows, who cares. It is all about how they fit the team, and durability is the most important thing in my mind.

1. Randy Johnson is durable. Yes he is coming off another surgery, but the guy has surgery every offseason it seems. But you know what gets me about him? In 1990 he was sent to Seattle and since then, there have been only 3 seasons in which RJ didnt surpass 200 innings, and one of those yrs was in 94 because of the strike. The guy is a durable machine who was uncharacteristically bad without having the bad peripherals you would expect. The only trend was a mild increase in BB/9 (up by 0.7) and a decrease in K/9 (down by 0.8). BAA rose by only 7 points, which could be random variation. HR total dropped by 4. Still less than a hit per inning. What is interesting is the fact that he cannot seem to get out of the big inning. 2 years ago, RJ's opponents OPS with RISP was .717. This season, his OPS w/RISP was .998. 2 seasons ago, his opponents OPS with runners on was .766. Last yr it was .927. Either RJ was the victim of bad luck last yr is something that could be debated. It could also be debated that he no longer has either the balls or the stuff to get himself out of jams. That could be why his peripherals (which are very Schilling-esque) translated into a run higher ERA. One other thing that is going to be an obvious carrot in front of RJ is 300 wins. He is 20 wins away, and having won 17 games last yr while giving up so many runs makes 20 this season possible, even if he vultures them. Very difficult to predict, but it is not out of the realm of possibility to say that he could have an era below 4 next yr or approaching 6. The one thing I will bank on is, barring any setback in recovery, 200 innings like clockwork.

2. Mike Mussina The guy is a yearly DL'er. He'll hit the DL again, but he reinvented himself last season. Was 3IP short of 200. K'd 0.7 more per 9IP, walked 0.9/9IP less and had an astronomical 4.91K/BB which was his second highest in his career. His BAA dropped by 43 points, his OPS against dropped by 110 points, his ERA dropped by 0.9 runs per 9, and his WHIP dropped by 0.25. All from slowing down his breaking stuff and embracing age which will increase his longevity and effectiveness. I expect more of the same if he stays healthy, but that is a big if.

3. Chien Ming Wang was pretty amazing last season. 218 innings in 33 starts. His ERA was low at 3.63. But that doesnt make him amazing. What is amazing is that he allowed 12 HRs and the third highest GB/FB ratio in the bigs. He has power stuff that he uses to contact, which makes him an innings eater. And it isnt like the hitters dont know its coming. He throws the sinker about 80% of the time, they just cannot lift it. Quote about him essentially say it is like trying to hit a 95 mph bowling ball. His problems are with running teams, something that the sox are not. He is horrible at holding runners. He is a GB pitcher, so speedy hitters reach base a lot on him. He does have a significant injury history. He has ha TJ and two yrs ago was told he needed rotator cuff surgery. Obviously that was poor advice as R and R fixed it up. If healthy, I'd expect more of the same. He'll never be a K pitcher, but he will eat 200 innings, put up a lot of QS's and win a ton of games on a team that will provide him runs. Is he a prototypical ace, absolutely not. But will he give the yankees a very good chance to win any game, regular season or playoffs, that he pitches, absolutely.

4. Andy Pettitte is durable. He has reached 190 innings 9 out of the last 11 seasons. Also, if you take his last 3 seasons and subtract out the pre AS break numbers from last yr, you have a pitcher with an era sub 3 in the NL. Not bad. His K rate rose to his second highest rate in any full season last yr at 7.4 per 9. But his walk rate jumped as well, by 1.3 from 05 to 06. His BAA jumped a whopping 54 points from 05 to 06, but if you look at the splits, it is even more impressive. His pre AS BAA was .309 last yr. His post AS BAA was .249 which is right about where his numbers were in 2004. Overall, the guy has always been a 2nd half pitcher, but if he could maintain his second half performance from last yr (provided the AL transfer bump), he should give the yankees a lot of wins based on the O and the pen, a lot of innings and a 4-ish ERA.

5. Kei Igawa Nothing known really about this guy except that he is remarkably durable. 200+ innings 5 times in the past 7 yrs and 190+ in 6 of the last 7. Other than that, who the fuck knows.

The Yankees needs from their rotation are VASTLY different than what the sox need. The Yankees are going to have a pen that will be a strength and potentially the best lineup in baseball. The downfall of the yankees the previous yrs has not been in the rotation necessarily, but has been because of the durability of the rotation. The bullpen is filled with power arms, but power arms get tired. If this rotation is durable and partially effective, then this team will be very good. If the rotation is effective and durable, then this team will be awesome. But the durability is the key. Now the one thing the yankees have that the sox dont is depth. Pavano is still on this team for now, and would be the #5, but I have a feeling he moves soon. But for now he is the 5/6. Then you have guys like Karstens and Rasner who are not sexy by any means but will eat innings. Karstens averaged 6Ip per start in the minors and then averaged 6.2 last yr in 6 starts. Rasner is a guy who fought arm trouble last season, but is a guy who could go 6 innings on a given day. Will they throw shutouts and be lights out. Not likely. But these guys offer depth that will eat innings when called on and not walk people (Both Rasner and Karstens were pretty good in that area last yr). These 2 are NOT Gabbard and Pauley. Those guys walked a ton of hitters and hence were not around deep into games. Plus, the yankees have 3 top prospects in AAA who are starting pitchers.

Overall, the yankees can handle injury better. They should get more innings out of their rotation than the sox will and as long as they reach the magic number of 900 and potentially 1000 then this team is gonna be tough to beat. The edge in my opinion is not useful to tell right now. If every single thing bounces right for both teams, then the sox will have the best rotation (potentially in all of baseball), but we know that isnt always the case. And if injury strikes, then the sox will be in a whole heapin helpin of trouble.

[Plumpamania]

Just to point out Randy Johnson you said right off the bat is durable, then talked about his surgeries, and neglected to talk about the fact he has no cartilidge in one of his knees.

I do not think the Yankees will get more IP out of their SP than the Sox. I think the Sox rotation is superior in youth and longevity.

The Yankees however do have a better pen, up and down.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by Plumpamania

Just to point out Randy Johnson you said right off the bat is durable, then talked about his surgeries, and neglected to talk about the fact he has no cartilidge in one of his knees.

I do not think the Yankees will get more IP out of their SP than the Sox. I think the Sox rotation is superior in youth and longevity.

The Yankees however do have a better pen, up and down.

He hasnt had cartilage in his knees for 5 years now. It hasnt affected him one bit.

As for your durability aspect, I see your point. But I am going off performance here. The sox have younger pitchers, which means they will be handled with kid gloves and their chances of hurting their arms are much greater. As it is, the yankees will have 5 pitchers in their rotation who threw 197IP or more last season (4 in the MLB and one in Japan). We'll see.