What to do with all these pitching prospects

[jacksonianmarch]

Cashman is up to something. He is continually stockpiling arms but for which slots and potentially for trades?

Consider these rotation slots.
1. Wang- likely to be in NY for a long time
2. Mussina- signed for 2 more yrs
3. Pettitte- signed for 2 more yrs if he is healthy
4. Igawa- signed for 4 yrs
5. Pavano- signed for 2 yrs.

the only slot I see opening up this offseason is the 5 hole, as I feel Pavano will be gone by the beginning of 08. If he pitches well, he'll be dealt, if he stays injured, he may be bought out. The 3 slot is another area that could open should Andy be injured, but I wont be banking on that. Igawa could flame out but to count on Igawa to flame out and Pettitte to be injured is too unlikely to occur imultaneously when both have a history of durability. So, for the sake of argument, at most 2 slots are opening. Zambrano hits the market next yr, and I find it hard to believe the yankees wont make a run at him. Westbrook also hits the market, and he is another guy who the yankees will likely have interest in as he is similar to wang in stuff and durability. Then you have these guys.

Rasner, 25 - plus sinker, average fastball, successful short stint in the majors. Successful minor league career. Battled shoulder trouble. Pitched very well in winter ball. Will compete for a major league job in 07.

Karstens, 23 - 4 big league pitches with plus command. Successful minor league track record and successful short stint in the majors. Will compete for a major league job in 07.

Hughes, 20 - Has everything. Amazing minor league track record, plus plus off speed stuff, plus heat, plus location, plus plus plus plus whatever. Will start in AAA this season, with a likely mid season callup.

Sanchez, 23 - power arm, plus slider, pitched well in AA/AAA and would have been called up to Detroit during their WS run if not for a minor elbow injury. Will start the yr in AAA with the MLB being a strong possibility in 07

Clippard, 21 - average heat, plus curve, plus control and command. Very high K rate commensurate to stuff. Brought along one level at a time since being drafted out of high school. Will start the yr in AAA and will likely NOT receive a callup.

then you have the guys who are coming in, 2 of these 3 are likely to come over.

Nipper, 25, made his MLB debut in 2005. Has a plus fastball with plus curve. No tertiary pitch. Command is spotty. Will start season in AAA if acquired. Will likely be called up at some point in 07.

Owings, 24, plus heat, average off speed stuff, plus command and control who tore up AA and AAA last yr. Will start the yr in AAA, likely to spend the entire yr there if acquired.

Ohlendorf, 24, average heat, plus sinker, plus plus control, plus command. Dominated AA, pitched one game of AAA. Will likely stay the entire yr in AAA if acquired. He threw 180 innings last season, meaning he is stretched out.

There is just too much going around. The Yankees have their starting 5 filled. They have 2 guys who will be on the Scranton shuttle all yr long as spot starter. If a starter misses long periods of time, then they have 2 other guys who will likely step up and 3 if Nippert is a package to the deal. Overall, 7 starters (assuming the yankees get 2 of the 3 mentioned above in the RJ deal) on this list will be ready for the major leagues in 2008 as long as injury does not prevent anything, while at most 2 spots will be opening up and one of those holes may be filled externally. So given that, I think Cashman is up to something.

Of all of the minor leaguers mentioned above, Hughes is obviously the best. He ranks as the #1 pitcher in the entire minor leagues, not just on the yankees. He is a flat out, ace projected (not ceiling, projected) pitcher.

After that, the picture is fuzzy on how to rank them. If you want to go by stuff, then Sanchez is the 2nd best on this list. If you want to go by numbers, then Owings and Clippard could fight it out. NL scouts think Owings is a better prospect than Sanchez while AL scouts disagree. So lets consider them 2A and 2B even though Sanchez has the highest ceiling (ace ceiling, projections are erratic as some think his future is in the pen) while Owings (assuming he is acquired) is projected to be the safer bet (#3 starter with a ceiling of a 2). The fourth best on the above list in terms of ceiling has to be Nippert (assuming he is acquired). He has ace potential (according to scouts.com) but scouts really dont like his limited repertoire and his shaky command. Projections on him range from mid rotation pitcher to bullpen pitcher with a ceiling of an ace.

The final two spots would be reserved for Clippard then Ohlendorf (assuming he is acquired).

So what are we to do with these guys. Well that is for Yankee fans to discuss and for sox fans to pick apart. Ready GO. WOWZAH!

[Soxfan#1]

I saw an article saying that since Zitos contract went as high as it went, the twins have no chance of re-signing Yohan and he may be available. It says that he may be the only pitcher on the market the yankees would consider trading Hughes for.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by Soxfan#1

I saw an article saying that since Zitos contract went as high as it went, the twins have no chance of re-signing Yohan and he may be available. It says that he may be the only pitcher on the market the yankees would consider trading Hughes for.

That is why the yankees are stockpiling in my opinion. After reading scouting report after scouting report on the 20 yr old Hughes, there is almost no way we deal this kid. At the same time, anyone coming for Johan, better come hard.

Now, chances are, the Twins are gonna take a huge step back this yr. Losing Liriano and Radke will kill off both innings and effectiveness and the twins will essentially be leaning on Santana and a bunch of guys who were midseason callups and who really werent all that strong in their debuts. Add to that the fact that the twins have a lineup that is essentially 3 men deep and you have a team that may be a tough playoff team, but will not win in the regular season save a miraculous performance by the other guys. At the same time, the Twins have a young core that will likely be making some serious noise in 2009 when Liriano gets healthy, Garza and Bonser get more under their belt and some of their other prospects hit the bigs. So a deal with MLB ready talent will be necessary, but actual MLB players will not be.

This is where the stockpiling helps. Depending on what else is offering, nobody else will be able to hold such a stable of young prospects in AAA for a full yr like the yankees would. You are talking about 5 young AAA MLB ready, high projections and even higher ceiling pitching prospects. These are the deals that the Twins make their hay on. So I think getting Johan is possible without giving up Hughes. Also, I have a sound suspicion that Hughes will be the #5 starter when the season closes anyway. This would either affirm our suspicions of him as a stellar major league potential player or scare the twins away if he bombs. Either way, if he hits the majors, I dont expect him to be moved.

At the same time, we have never had a prospect like this. The nearest thing we had was Pettitte and he was never the #1 minor league pitching prospect in baseball. And to compare the two in minor league #s is not even close.

Pettitte's career minor league #s- 43-20 2.46ERA 608IP 522H 493K 173BB 7.3H/9IP 1.14WHIP 7.3K/9IP 2.5BB/9IP

Hughes career minor league #s- 21-7 2.13ERA 237IP 150H 269K 54BB 5.7H/9IP 0.86WHIP 10.2K/9IP 2.05BB/9IP

So what are we to do with the best minor league pitcher of the year. I dont know. I have no idea what the expectations should be, but I find it hard to believe that he doesnt suit up for NY for a long time coming. He is the best yankee pitching prospect since, well, since, I have been alive, and that is quite a while my friends. Granted, when I was younger, you didnt know much about the minor leagues, but you certainly heard about them when they came up.

So I think the yankees can outbid anyone looking to deal for him and I think they can outbid anyone should they hang onto him when he hits the market. And this includes not dealing Hughes.

[riverside sluggers]

"jackson", if you heard the Yankees turned down the Twins' offer of Johan Santana for Phillip Hughes... youd really be pissed about it?

[jacksonianmarch]

riverside. I would be wary of it. Simply because in Hughes you have a guy who SCREAMS Ace. A guy the likes of which have never come through your system. A guy who blows away the next closest guy in Homer Bailey. A guy whose peripherals flat out dwarf the last sure thing to come out of the minors in King Felix. A guy whose career minor league peripherals were better than Mark Prior's in his best college season. And the fact that the kid cannot legally drink as well. So, no, I would not like a deal of Hughes for Johan, I wouldnt trade him for anyone. His career WHIP in the minors is 0.86. To put that into perspective, that is better than Mariano Rivera's career best WHIP in 05.

Now I know you will all think I am crazy, but when you are handed this kind of talent at this young of an age, you dont deal that for anyone. I think Cashman is absolutely trying to build a package to get Johan without having to include Hughes, and I think he might be getting close.

The temptation will be there though. I hope he resists. Santana could be had for money in 2 yrs rather than deal for him now with Hughes.

Now if Santana were not 28 and were, shall we say 23, then deal. But at 28 and 2 yrs from FA, no dice baby. Not for this talent.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by riverside sluggers

"jackson", if you heard the Yankees turned down the Twins' offer of Johan Santana for Phillip Hughes... youd really be pissed about it?

why did you put me in quotes? "Riverside" you can call me Jackson, its okay bro.

[kreinbihl34]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

riverside. I would be wary of it. Simply because in Hughes you have a guy who SCREAMS Ace. A guy the likes of which have never come through your system. A guy who blows away the next closest guy in Homer Bailey. A guy whose peripherals flat out dwarf the last sure thing to come out of the minors in King Felix. A guy whose career minor league peripherals were better than Mark Prior's in his best college season. And the fact that the kid cannot legally drink as well. So, no, I would not like a deal of Hughes for Johan, I wouldnt trade him for anyone. His career WHIP in the minors is 0.86. To put that into perspective, that is better than Mariano Rivera's career best WHIP in 05.

Now I know you will all think I am crazy, but when you are handed this kind of talent at this young of an age, you dont deal that for anyone. I think Cashman is absolutely trying to build a package to get Johan without having to include Hughes, and I think he might be getting close.

The temptation will be there though. I hope he resists. Santana could be had for money in 2 yrs rather than deal for him now with Hughes.

Now if Santana were not 28 and were, shall we say 23, then deal. But at 28 and 2 yrs from FA, no dice baby. Not for this talent.

This is the deal with Hughes and maybe you do not want to see it because your a Yankee fan, he has only been successful in minior leagues. Yes he might has a great track record, but he is still a prospect and only that. My opinion is if my team can trade for MLB talent that can be had for prospects, then I would my team to do it. They can be called sure things, but the are not. Anything can hapen including some freakish injury.

Also you can compare WHIP for minior leagues to major and I laugh. To even write that is complete ignorant to Rivera's great season. Hughes did it in minor leagues, half the team is made up of bums. Rivera faces the best of the best, no bums there.

To put this in simple thems, if I could have Hughes or Johan to build a team with, I choose Johan everyday and twice on Sunday plain and simple. I'll go with the prove thing that's only 28, then risk it on a kid.

[One Red Seat]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Simply because in Hughes you have a guy who SCREAMS Ace. A guy the likes of which have never come through your system. A guy who blows away the next closest guy in Homer Bailey. A guy whose peripherals flat out dwarf the last sure thing to come out of the minors in King Felix. A guy whose career minor league peripherals were better than Mark Prior's in his best college season. And the fact that the kid cannot legally drink as well. So, no, I would not like a deal of Hughes for Johan, I wouldnt trade him for anyone. His career WHIP in the minors is 0.86. To put that into perspective, that is better than Mariano Rivera's career best WHIP in 05.

Look at Beckett's MiLB stats and dig up the old prospect rankings/scouting reports. You will find strong similarities. I don't care who the prospect is, if you can get the best pitcher in all of baseball two years before he turns 30, you do it. Bar none.

[Coco's Disciples]

Jackson, you wouldn't deal a guy who has the potential to be as good as Santana for a guy who IS Santana?

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by Coco's Disciples

Jackson, you wouldn't deal a guy who has the potential to be as good as Santana for a guy who IS Santana?

I feel that dealing a guy with Santana's upside and potential for Santana likely a year before we could get him for $$$ is stupid.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by One Red Seat

Look at Beckett's MiLB stats and dig up the old prospect rankings/scouting reports. You will find strong similarities. I don't care who the prospect is, if you can get the best pitcher in all of baseball two years before he turns 30, you do it. Bar none.

Beckett and Hughes have very similar MiLB stats. Hughes a better WHIP and H/9IP, Beckett the better K/9IP and ERA. I see your point.