|
MVP
Join Date: Aug 21 2006
Posts: 3,744
|
New York Yankees Scouting Report
Keith Law of ESPN Insider and his New York Yankees scouting report. Enjoy!
The Yankees are in a transitional period as they try to incorporate a significant amount of young talent into their roster for the first time since their 1996 world championship. Having added Chien-Ming Wang and Robinson Cano last year, they've now begun filling out their pitching staff with the products of their farm system rather than overpaying for the likes of Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, limiting their free-agent signings to one- and two-year deals.
What that has meant in the short term, however, is a relatively young pitching staff complemented by a deep and powerful (not to mention expensive) offense. In the postseason, however, pitching and defense are somewhat more important than they are during the regular season, because of the higher caliber of competition. The Yankees' pitching and defense are, on paper, the worst of the four AL playoff teams, leaving them reliant on an explosive offense to win playoff games.
How They'll Win
• Their best chance to win is to bludgeon opponents, especially early, allowing the Yanks' starting pitchers to stay in the game even if they're a little shaky.
• They'll also gain an advantage through their ability to wear opposing starters out, taking tons of pitches and then beating up their opponents' bullpens.
• If the Yankees get to the seventh or eighth inning tied or with the lead, the Joba Chamberlain-Mariano Rivera combination is the best set-up and closer relief punch of any playoff team, although it's not clear just how often they'll use Chamberlain in October.
Strengths
The Yankees' primary strength is their offense, the best in the majors over the season's second half. Their lineup is deep, largely patient, with power from almost every spot, and they're capable of waiting almost any starting pitcher out. Their cleanup hitter, Alex Rodriguez, was the best hitter in baseball this year. He has excellent plate discipline and murders fastballs left over the plate, especially in the lower half of the zone. His bat is quick enough that he can adjust late and take balls the other way, and the only time you'll see him look bad at the plate is when he gets too focused on getting a fastball to drive.
Their unsung hero this year is Bobby Abreu, who doesn't seem to fit the profile of the typical slugging corner outfielder, but who takes a ton of pitches -- ranking third in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance -- and who keeps his head on the ball as well as any hitter in the league. They've also received tremendous contributions from Jorge Posada -- leading the team in OBP and squaring up every pitch, fastballs and off-speed pitches alike -- and from the surprisingly selective Cano. The left-handed hitting Cano was flailing at stuff out of the zone, especially breaking stuff well below the strike zone, through the season's first two and a half months, but hitting coach Kevin Long worked with Cano on his pitch selection and on keeping his swing under control, resulting in a .338/.392/.560 line from July 1 on.
The Yankees' postseason bullpen is going to remind a lot of people of their 1996 pen, when Mariano Rivera came in for the seventh and eight innings, with John Wetteland closing it out in the ninth. This year, rookie Joba Chamberlain takes the setup role, working with a 94-98 mph fastball and a venomous slider that comes in around 83-85 mph with plus tilt and a very late break. He also throws an inconsistent curveball that flashes plus, and has a fringe-average changeup, but going one time through the order he'll work mostly by getting ahead with his fastball and finishing hitters off with sliders down or the occasional 98 mph heater up. Rivera fills the Wetteland role in the ninth inning, throwing cutter after cutter and trying to hit the corners, especially to lefties against whom he'll throw cutters in on the hands. This alignment actually puts the Yanks' better reliever in for more of the crucial outs in the seventh and eighth innings, and should help avoid situations where Rivera has to come in to get more than three outs.
How They'll Lose
• The Yankees have four starting pitchers who don't miss a lot of bats, and a defense that doesn't cover a lot of ground. A few bad bounces can lead to early deficits, and there's no defense for the home runs that Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens can serve up if they're not fine enough with their stuff.
• Any game that requires the services of the Yankees' middle-inning relievers will lead to increased Zantac sales in the tristate area.
• The one weakness of the Yankees' offense is its left-handedness; Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu are all neutralized by left-handed pitching, and Robinson Cano's success against them over the last four months of this season is a new (and perhaps temporary) development.
Their rotation as a whole isn't deep, but their top two starters are both superb. Wang has replaced his split-change with an average slider that flashes plus; he gets a lot of awkward swings from right-handers and will back-foot it to a left-handed hitter. His bread and butter remains his 91-93 mph sinker, generating ground ball after ground ball and hoping the Yankees' infield is up to the task. His biggest risk is that he occasionally will lose his feel for the sinker for a few pitches, and his fastball is very hittable when it flattens out.
Andy Pettitte has been a revelation for the Yankees, who couldn't have realistically expected a season this good from him, given his age and up-and-down performance with Houston over the past three years. Pettitte's fastball, cutter and slider are all essentially one pitch; he just varies the shape and velocity by altering his grip (or the degree to which he "cuts" the pitch). He'll run it up to 92 mph with just a slight cut, will throw a slider at 80-82 mph with more of a two-plane break that runs hard down and in to right-handed hitters, and will throw various cutters in between those two. He also has a solid-average curveball with a tight 11-to-5 rotation to keep hitters honest.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately for the Yankees, the back end of their pitching staff is weak. Their third and fourth starters are likely to be Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina; Clemens has been plagued by minor injuries, first to his elbow (requiring a pair of cortisone shots) and then to his hamstring, while Mussina was completely ineffective until his last few starts in September.
Outside of Chamberlain and Rivera, their bullpen is scary. Their next-best reliever is Edwar Ramirez, who has a Bugs Bunny changeup but has to use it very heavily due to his lack of a breaking ball and straight, average fastball. Behind him, it's Luis Vizcaino, Ron Villone and Brian Bruney, all of whom show a platonic relationship with the strike zone, and The Professor, Kyle Farnsworth, with nuclear-powered stuff and a watch-battery head.
Question Marks
• How healthy and effective will Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina be in October?
• Can the team's questionable defense make enough plays behind their contact-oriented pitching staff?
• Can their starting pitchers provide enough innings to keep relievers like Luis Vizcaino and Brian Bruney out of close games?
They're also a shaky defensive club, which isn't ideal considering the fact that all four of their starting pitchers tend to allow a lot of balls in play. They're below-average defensively at shortstop and in left field as well as at first base when Jason Giambi plays there; Melky Cabrera has a plus arm in center but his jumps tend to be a step late; and despite his athletic ability, Rodriguez hasn't played well at third base. They do have a defensive whiz in Alberto Gonzalez, a shortstop who can play third or second, but they're not going to pull any of their starting infielders to play him (if he's even on the postseason roster).
And finally, their reliance on left-handed hitters does leave them a bit more vulnerable to a left-handed starter; Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon and Cano are all left-handed and all show weakness against lefties with good breaking balls, while Cabrera can bat right-handed but will chase changeups away all day long.
__________________
"Every year, the infielders move a step back because you have lost some speed, and the outfielders move in a step because you have lost some of your power. When they can shake hands, you're finished."
|
Linear Mode
