Felix Hernandez signs contract extension with Mariners

[jacksonianmarch]

I am sure they'll be throwing big money his way. I am saying, if the Yankees put Kershaw at the top of their list, I guarantee the highest AAV would come out of the Bronx

[a700hitter]

Originally Posted by Palodios

Reports came out after the Felix deal that Kershaw and the Dodgers have mutual interest in a new contract.

Look at the money the Dodgers are spending on their current rotation! Do you honestly think they'd bat an eyelash to drop Beckett + Lily after 2014 in order to pay one of the best pitchers in baseball?

Greinke $23m
Beckett $16m
Billingsley $11m
Ted Lilly $13m
Hyun-Jin Ryu $6m
Harang $7m

Dodgers, Kershaw Have "Mutual Interest" In Extension
By Mark Polishuk [February 7 at 8:19pm CST]

If Ned Colletti has his way, we won't be hearing much about his club's negotiations about a new contract with Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers general manager did tell Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that both sides share an interest in getting a deal done.

“This is not going to be a daily discussion point for us publicly,” Colletti said. “But there is a mutual interest.”

Kershaw said last summer that he would be open to negotiating an extension, and while it has been assumed that the Dodgers would explore the topic this winter, Kershaw said that no talks had taken place as recently as two weeks ago. Kershaw signed a two-year, $19.5MM extension last February that covered his first two arbitration-eligible seasons, and he'll have one more arb-eligible year under team control before hitting free agency after the 2014 season.

While Kershaw is controlled through 2014 and there's no immediate rush to work out an extension, the Dodgers may wish to finalize a deal quickly given the ever-rising prices of frontline pitching. Felix Hernandez's reported seven-year, $175MM agreement with the Mariners sets a new standard in the pitching market and Justin Verlander (also a free agent after 2014) has an interest in discussing an extension with the Tigers. It seems like just a matter of time before we see a pitcher signing a $200MM deal, a number that Kershaw could get from the Dodgers and would absolutely get as a 26-year-old free agent if he kept up his current form.

[Palodios]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I am sure they'll be throwing big money his way. I am saying, if the Yankees put Kershaw at the top of their list, I guarantee the highest AAV would come out of the Bronx

Oh boy. I hate to break it to you, but Yankees ownership have a bridge to sell you.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by Palodios

Oh boy. I hate to break it to you, but Yankees ownership have a bridge to sell you.

Yankees ownership will get something along the lines of a $100+ mil break from going under the lux tax for 2014. After 2014, ARod will have only 3 yrs left on his deal and Tex only 2. We'd have presumably come off our first season of non-contention since before we traded for Paul O'Neill. We'd also reset the lux tax and our ace, CC will have half his new contract done and will be entering his mid 30s. Right now, the Yankees are a profit machine, but a lot of Yankee fans are humongous bandwagon jumpers and one bad season will drive the profitability down immensely. They'll be looking for a splash and that splash would come in the acquisition of Verlander or Kershaw

[Dojji]

The Dodgers are where the Red Sox were a few years ago. They can't beat the Yankees contract for contract, but they can easily match or beat them for any one player if they decide it's important enough.

I have a hunch, you know, just a small inkling, that the Dodgers might decide that Kershaw is important enough.

Besides, wasn't it the same song and dance from you until not very long ago when it came to Felix too?

[mvp 78]

Kershaw might be the most popular player the Dodgers have. He's not going anywhere.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by Dojji

The Dodgers are where the Red Sox were a few years ago. They can't beat the Yankees contract for contract, but they can easily match or beat them for any one player if they decide it's important enough.

I have a hunch, you know, just a small inkling, that the Dodgers might decide that Kershaw is important enough.

Besides, wasn't it the same song and dance from you until not very long ago when it came to Felix too?

No, it wasn't. I always maintained that Felix wasn't obtainable for trade and I had said that he liked it in Seattle. I had said that if he reached the open market, then we'd outbid everyone

[cbbosox]

Wish he would have ended up in Boston
but overall i think it's great for baseball when a smaller market can keep
one of their own,

[Palodios]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

They'll be looking for a splash and that splash would come in the acquisition of Verlander or Kershaw

I just don't think those guys are obtainable. If you're looking for a free agent ace available in the seasons ahead, that guy is David Price.

[BSN07]

Originally Posted by Palodios

I just don't think those guys are obtainable. If you're looking for a free agent ace available in the seasons ahead, that guy is David Price.

He makes a lot of sense, but he's going to cost a ton and he's going to have multiple suitors.

[Dojji]

Originally Posted by Palodios

I just don't think those guys are obtainable.

Not the right way to term that. A better way is that even the Yankees have prices in talent they won't meet, and a smart team locks up a top performer like Verlander or Kershaw if they can and forces the Yankees to deal in talent rather than dollars if they want to poach another team's superstars.

The fact that this strategy is out there, and works, is one of the reasons the Red Sox are having the devil of a time reloading. The deck has been tilted ever more heavily in favor of the team trying to re-sign its star rather than the team trying to filch one from another team over the last several years and I'm not sure we won't see that trend continue unless the MLBPA manage to gear up and fight it.

[Dojji]

Originally Posted by Palodios

I just don't think those guys are obtainable. If you're looking for a free agent ace available in the seasons ahead, that guy is David Price.

The Rays will trade Price to a team or their own choice that's willing to go balls to the wall to re-sign him. I'm convinced that "we promise to re-sign Price if we possibly can and keep him out of your division" is going to be a wink-and-handshake condition of any Price deal. The Rays have too much to lose if Price comes back to the East so they are going to do everything within their power to make sure that Price doesn't come back to haunt them in a NYY or BOS (or TOR or BAL) jersey.

Peering into my nonexistent crystal ball, I'd suspect that Price finishes his career somewhere west of the Mississippi. Angels, Dodgers, Giants, one of those teams looking for a chance to take a middle-aged core over the top (again?) in the coming years.

Given that the Hernandez contract itself means that the Mariners at least think they're serious too, I could see them make a move for Price and give themselves one of the most absurd one-two tandems in recent history, probably the best since Johnson and Schilling.

It has been hard to rebuild a team from FA since the days FA started. Now with the rules in place the way they are, it's rapidly becoming impossible to even seriously improve a decent team through FA. It's either the draft or it's the big trade, and heaven help you if the big trade goes belly-up.

[Palodios]

Originally Posted by Dojji

Not the right way to term that. A better way is that even the Yankees have prices in talent they won't meet, and a smart team locks up a top performer like Verlander or Kershaw if they can and forces the Yankees to deal in talent rather than dollars if they want to poach another team's superstars.

It is the right way to term that. They simply are unobtainable. Contenders with money don't trade elite players. It simply isn't done, because it makes no sense. Even if they were offered 5-6 top 100 prospects, teams like that might not make the trade because of how significantly it would hurt their fans and their franchise.

[iortiz]

I said a couple of times here that all those Hernadezs, Kershaws, Hammels, Cains, Etc. are pipe dreams. Some said that we have the prospects and that we could grab an ace in 2014 or so while we save money and blah, blah, blah. Lets face it, ain't gonna happen.

All I was asking all along was a couple of solid/durable 2-3 tier pitchers (Buehrle, Kuroda, Gio, etc type) since 2011 in order to reinforce our rotation and be at least competitive in that department and mostly, be a more balanced team all around.... and in the meantime develop somehow an ace from within. Some say that 35-50 M contracts for those type of pitchers were insane. Well, when you see what aces are getting these days, those type of contracts for 2-3 tier pitchers are fair from my glasses, otherwise you have to bet and see what pitchers like Cook, Dempster, etc. can do, over and over again.

[Palodios]

Originally Posted by Dojji

The Rays will trade Price to a team or their own choice that's willing to go balls to the wall to re-sign him. I'm convinced that "we promise to re-sign Price if we possibly can and keep him out of your division" is going to be a wink-and-handshake condition of any Price deal. The Rays have too much to lose if Price comes back to the East so they are going to do everything within their power to make sure that Price doesn't come back to haunt them in a NYY or BOS (or TOR or BAL) jersey.

Tampa doesn't regret trades . Price's home/away splits are insane. They'll trade him away, he'll either get hurt, or turn into a 3.50-4.00 ERA pitcher, pull in a pile of elite pitching prospects, turn them all into superstars and continue the process.

It has been hard to rebuild a team from FA since the days FA started. Now with the rules in place the way they are, it's rapidly becoming impossible to even seriously improve a decent team through FA. It's either the draft or it's the big trade, and heaven help you if the big trade goes belly-up.

You draft your core, and supplement it on the free agent market. That's how it has always been, and how it will continue to be. Finding a #1 pitcher is going to be incredibly difficult, which is why they we're going to see them put a good deal of faith into Lester/Buch/RDLR/ Webster/Barnes/Owens in 2013. Afterall, the Bard experiment was another attempt at finding another elite starter, but that one just happened to go kaput.