Arizona Diamonbacks scouting report

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Keith Law's scouting report. Enjoy.

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been outscored by 20 runs on the season, meaning their projected won-lost record (based on their runs scored and runs allowed totals) is below .500. Their weaknesses as a playoff team outnumber their strengths, but they had the best record in the National League and have home-field advantage in the Division Series.

 

Law's Scouting Reports

 

Strengths

The Diamondbacks' bullpen is the main reason they are outperforming their projected record, and it's not just a question of the quality of their arms -- it's how they use them. The Diamondbacks eschew the traditional slotting of roles in their bullpen, with one pitcher the "seventh-inning guy" and another the "eighth-inning guy." Instead, they think of relievers by situation, such as using Juan Cruz as their "tied or down-by-one guy."

 

For most of this season, Arizona has used three relievers in those tight situations. Jose Valverde is the one traditionally used reliever in the group, since he nearly always works as a one-inning closer, although he rarely works in situations when Arizona is up by more than two runs (just 17 of his 63 appearances). Valverde blows most hitters away with high heat in the 93-96 mph range, but he has two solid secondary offerings in a splitter with good bottom and a little fade away from lefties and a slider with a very short, mostly downward break. His arm action in back is ugly, but he hides the ball pretty well and it loosens up as it comes around his body.

 

How They'll Win

• Two starts from Brandon Webb should give them a shot at two wins, since only Jake Peavy was better among NL playoff starters.

 

• If they face a pitcher who lacks good offspeed stuff, they've got a lineup of fastball hitters who can crush mistakes.

 

• Smart bullpen management with three, maybe four good arms out there puts them in position to keep games close in the sixth and seventh innings.

Backing up Valverde in tight situations before the ninth inning are Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena. Lyon has been both good and lucky this year. He's been good because he commands his 91-93 mph fastball and throws strike after strike, mixing in the occasional curve down and away to righties to try to get a strikeout. He's been lucky because he doesn't really have an outpitch and he works all over the zone with his fastball, which doesn't have a lot of movement, so two homers allowed in more than 70 innings is a lot fewer than his stuff would lead us to expect.

 

Pena was their best reliever for the first four months of the season, working with a plus fastball at 93-95 mph and a very sharp, late-breaking slider at 86-88 mph, but he has worn down as the season has progressed, and the fatigue has taken a toll on his fastball command, which was never great but is now well-below average. The role he had been filling now has been handed to Cruz, who has a similar repertoire but better commands his fastball, especially to his glove side.

 

Arizona's biggest single weapon in the playoffs, however, is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, Brandon Webb. The next time you hear someone claim that such-and-such a pitcher is a "groundball machine" or throws a "heavy sinker," refer them to video of Mr. Webb. At 89-91 mph, his velocity is just average, but his sink is off the charts -- an 80 on the 20-80 scale -- with an almost splitter-like bottom, plus run to boot. He also throws an average curve and a plus changeup that also has a splitter-like tumble to it, commands all three pitches and has plus control. He will, on occasion, leave a fastball up, and that's a hitter's best opportunity to do something other than ground out.

 

How They'll Lose

• If Hernandez or Davis is in the No. 2 spot, not only will Arizona be at a disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup, their 'pen will have to soak up innings it's not well-equipped to soak up.

 

• Plenty of starters on postseason rosters boast at least one plus secondary pitch, and if it's got a twist or a wiggle, several Diamondback hitters are going to do walks of shame back to the bench.

 

• As good as the bullpen has been, the main guys have been worked hard, with Tony Pe?a already wearing down, and Jose Valverde is a bit erratic (like Francisco Rodriguez, for example) even when he's rested.

And while Micah Owings has just average stuff on the mound -- an 88-91 mph fastball, an 82-83 mph slider with early break and a changeup he rarely uses -- he commands everything to both sides of the plate, and he's a hidden weapon because he can hit. He has a strong, full swing, centers the ball well, shows some plate discipline and can adjust to soft stuff away. Having him on the playoff roster gives Arizona another pinch-hitting option off the bench, and it's almost like having a designated hitter when he's in the lineup.

 

The Diamondbacks don't have a strong offense, but it's a flexible one for platoons and pinch-hitting situations. With Justin Upton and Jeff Salazar sharing duties in right, Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder platooning behind the plate, and switch-hitters Tony Clark and Alberto Callaspo, manager Bob Melvin has plenty of options to try to gain the upper hand in left-right matchups.

 

Weaknesses

Arizona ranks 14th in the NL in runs scored, with good reason. Despite having a ton of talent on its roster, its hitters haven't performed up to expectations, and a major reason why is that so many of these young hitters were not ready for the majors when they first got there. The Diamondbacks' typical lineup is a collection of big hacks, and you don't see a lot of adjustments to offspeed stuff. Chris Young crushes balls he can center, but his swing is long, he's very pull-oriented and he doesn't recognize breaking balls. He jumps all over first-pitch fastballs, and teams will figure that one out quickly. Mark Reynolds chases breaking balls low and away, sliders in on his hands, fastballs up above the zone and breaking balls down and in, which doesn't leave much else. He will crush hanging breaking balls and fastballs in the zone, but you can beat him soft away because he won't take those pitches to right. Snyder is a dead fastball hitter and will go after breaking balls in the dirt -- and so on. As a result, they are not a hard team to pitch to, since their weaknesses as hitters are obvious and they don't draw a lot of walks.

Question Marks

• Can anyone in this lineup lay off the slider low and away?

 

• Can they put up enough runs against the better pitching they'll see in a short postseason series?

 

• Can Doug Davis and/or Livan Hernandez shut down a good offense, especially with one of them likely working as the Snakes' No. 2 starter?

 

The best swing in the lineup -- other than Owings' on days he pitches -- is Stephen Drew's, but right now, he's not strong enough to drive good stuff to right field, and his approach doesn't include taking those balls to left-center often enough. Upton is a potential star and can drive a ball out with the best of them, but in a late-September look, he seemed tired and wasn't catching up to harder stuff he would have crushed two months ago.

 

The starting pitchers, other than Webb and Owings, also are cause for concern. Doug Davis has very fringy stuff, living largely off of a low-80s cutter and a pitching plan to work away from contact. He constantly is behind hitters, and he always is among the league leaders in walks. Livan Hernandez's fastball also is well-below average, running 80-84 mph, and he uses a big, slow curve around 60-62 mph that might succeed because it's below hitting speed. He has control and a feel for pitching that Davis lacks, but his stuff leaves him zero margin for error, and better offenses will feast on him if he's not pinpoint.