5/19 vs. Kansas City Royals - Talksox

Jayhawk Bill · 05-19-2008, 11:58 AM

Don't be fooled by the Kansas City Royals.

Pundits are jabbering excitedly about the new-look Royals, a team merely two games back of the division-leading White Sox in the AL Central. They speak of youth, excitement, and a belief on the bench that the team can win. After years of futility, Royals fans are enjoying the excitement of a pennant chase once again.

Of course, many teams' pennant chases have come to abrupt ends and tragic disrailments within view of the Green Monster. That may be about to happen again.

Consider this:

1) The 2008 Royals are 6-0 against the Detroit Tigers. That's well and good, but a whole bunch of teams beat up the Tigers pretty effectively this season. Beating the Tigers--especially in the first three games of this season--isn't a reliable measure of excellence.

2) The Royals are 7-2 in games Zack Greinke has started. Zack Greinke is a good guy, and he was a pitcher who seems finally to have channeled his flashes of potential into a significant streak of excellent games. Zack Greinke chalked up his fifth win yesterday as the Royals beat the Marlins 9-3. He will not pitch in this four-game series.

3) In games not started by Greinke and not versus the Detroit Tigers, the Kansas City Royals are 10-20, a .333 W/L Pct, a record that would leave them below the hapless San Diego Padres as the absolute worst team in Major League Baseball.

If that's not enough of an indictment of their talent, let's rub it in: these guys are chokers. Over the season thus far the team is batting .264/.321/.373, team stats that are 5th, 10th and 11th-best in the AL, respectively. With two outs and runners in scoring position, their team batting line is an anemic .220/.321/.274--yes, that's a .274 slugging percentage and an .054 isolated power. Even worse, in high-leverage situations* their batting line is .220/.272/.304: not only aren't they batting in runs, they're not even reaching base when it really matters. That's why the Royals are last--dead last--in run scoring in the American League.

For Boston, the toughest game of the four-game series comes tonight. Rookie Luke Hochevar is the Royals' second-best starting pitcher thus far in 2008. Despite getting just average defense behind him, Hochevar has posted an ERA below 4.00 for April and May, largely due to his getting ground balls 54.4% of the time. Hochevar is 3-2 despite getting a miniscule 2.09 supporting runs per 27 outs pitched. Greinke looks like a Cy Young candidate, but Hochevar looks very formidable himself.

Facing the Royals for Boston will be Jon Lester. While Lester's stats over the whole season look very similar to Hochevar's, they conceal the fact that Jon Lester has been very effective in his last four starts, allowing only a 2.13 ERA in 25.3 IP. Lester will have challenges tonight: the wind is blowing out and he's almost three times as home run-prone as Hochevar, and the Royals bat .285/.347/.403 as a team vs. left-handed pitchers. Still, with several Boston hitters coming off great games over the weekend, Lester will have every opportunity to earn a win for his team and Red Sox Nation tonight.

Game Time: 7:05 pm EDT Fenway Park
Current Weather: 57 degrees wind 20 mph blowing out

Royals pitcher:
Luke Hochevar
RHP
(3-2) 3.94 ERA

Red Sox pitcher:
Jon Lester
LHP
(2-2) 3.95 ERA

* High-leverage situations are those with a Win Probability Added of over 1.50, which are roughly the 20% most important plate appearances of the season.

VA Sox Fan · 05-19-2008, 05:08 PM

Royals

1. David DeJesus CF
2. Mark Grudzielanek 2B
3. Alex Gordon 3B
4. Jose Guillen DH
5. Billy Butler 1B
6. Miguel Olivo C
7. Mark Teahen RF
8. Esteban German LF
9. Tony Pena SS
-- Luke Hochevar P

Red Sox

1. Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. David Ortiz DH
4. Manny Ramirez LF
5. Mike Lowell 3B
6. Kevin Youkilis 1B
7. J.D Drew RF
8. Jason Varitek C
9. Julio Lugo SS
-- Jon Lester P

Go Jon! GO RED SOX!!

VA Sox Fan · 05-19-2008, 05:09 PM

Okajima says he's OK, available to pitch

Posted by Gordon Edes, Globe Staff May 19, 2008 04:27 PM

Hideki Okajima said his sore left wrist is fine and he's available to pitch. He's out on the field now testing the wrist; Terry Francona said he may not use Okajima depending on whether he feels the lefthander can spot his pitches after a four-day layoff. The guess here is the Sox will use Okajimai if the situation dictates it.

Royals cleanup hitter Jose Guillen -- Brendan Donnelly's best friend -- was just named AL Player of the Week after hitting .458 with 2 HRs and 13 RBIs. Don't look now, but the Royals have won six of their last seven, including a sweep of the reeling Tigers.

das11209 · 05-19-2008, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VA Sox Fan

Okajima says he's OK, available to pitch

Posted by Gordon Edes, Globe Staff May 19, 2008 04:27 PM

Hideki Okajima said his sore left wrist is fine and he's available to pitch. He's out on the field now testing the wrist; Terry Francona said he may not use Okajima depending on whether he feels the lefthander can spot his pitches after a four-day layoff. The guess here is the Sox will use Okajimai if the situation dictates it.

Royals cleanup hitter Jose Guillen -- Brendan Donnelly's best friend -- was just named AL Player of the Week after hitting .458 with 2 HRs and 13 RBIs. Don't look now, but the Royals have won six of their last seven, including a sweep of the reeling Tigers.

Back from Cleveland?

Jayhawk Bill · 05-19-2008, 07:32 PM

Gratuitous error on Lester's part, hurling the ball over to the stands to let the backup catcher advance to scoring position on two outs.

Did he really expect a steal?