* Michael Bowden *

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

I'd wait with the future ace claims.

I'm good with it....but whatever you say big shot

[ksushi]

I'd wait with the future ace claims.

Can't argue with his potential right now. Results like these come from good pitchers. He is very young too. Ahead (age wise) of every pitcher to come through our organization thus far, and putting up some pretty elite numbers. I mean, I guess its always prudent to curb your enthusiasm for a 21 year old who isn't out of the woods development wise (or in the potential for serious arm injury, barring misuse, after the age 21 season that should be out the window), but with what he has going on at AA right now, future is is gonna be a tag widely applied to him out on the open market this july and I think that might be his biggest contribution to the red sox this year... will be interesting.

[CrespoBlows]

Originally Posted by ksushi

Can't argue with his potential right now. Results like these come from good pitchers. He is very young too. Ahead (age wise) of every pitcher to come through our organization thus far, and putting up some pretty elite numbers. I mean, I guess its always prudent to curb your enthusiasm for a 21 year old who isn't out of the woods development wise (or in the potential for serious arm injury, barring misuse, after the age 21 season that should be out the window), but with what he has going on at AA right now, future is is gonna be a tag widely applied to him out on the open market this july and I think that might be his biggest contribution to the red sox this year... will be interesting.

That's why.

[ksushi]

I mean, what skin is it off your back if you get pumped about a guy doing as well as bowden and he suffers an injury or a hitch in development. The signs are encouraging. Jeez, enjoy the farm system man, we suffered through some awful, ugly and talentless years of farm system futiliy. Minor league talent was non-existent in Boston forever, our farm was vapid disgrace. The kid is a beast, maybe try to watch him, or follow him. He's doin' good stuff.

tis all

[CrespoBlows]

Originally Posted by ksushi

I mean, what skin is it off your back if you get pumped about a guy doing as well as bowden and he suffers an injury or a hitch in development. The signs are encouraging. Jeez, enjoy the farm system man, we suffered through some awful, ugly and talentless years of farm system futiliy. Minor league talent was non-existent in Boston forever, our farm was vapid disgrace. The kid is a beast, maybe try to watch him, or follow him. He's doin' good stuff.

tis all

I follow Bowden enough to koow that he's gotten mixed reviews about his offspeed stuff, and that his BABIP is currently at .243 at AA, meaning he's probably due for a regression.

I'm excited about what he can do at the higher levels, too, but forgive me for wanting to see him sustain this level of performance, before I label him a "future ace."

Right now, I have him pegged as a low #2/high #3 starter.

[ksushi]

See, everything I've heard about his off-speed has been more or less glowing. Only good things. When I saw him in portland last year, and what ive seen on nesn from time to time, its looked pretty good. No Buchholz, but pretty good. Especially the curve. His control numbers have always been great, and thats one of the biggest hurdles for a young kid.

I'm not saying people have to buy into every label tossed around out there, but i just like to see people get into the farm system? maybe im too crazy about it. I love the fact that we have actual promising young players. I think, personally, Bowden will never pitch for the Red Sox, it makes too much sense for him to be dealt. But I love the stuff he is doing for us right now, its really exciting, imo. not used to it.

[One Red Seat]

I could see him being a 1A type pitcher. Just short of an ace. The reason he falls short is that he lacks dominant, knockout stuff. The reason he'll succeed is that he commands his pitches and keeps the ball in the park. Scouting reports of his stuff make me think Mike Mussina or James Shields. And, his minor league performance is right about between the two.

In the minors....

Player	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
Moose	189.0	7.48	0.57	2.05	8.43
Bowden	322.2	7.91	0.59	2.60	8.85
Shields	544.1	9.06	0.86	2.18	7.86

These are courtesy of thebaseballcube.com, so they don't include this year. Thus, his stats are trending more toward Moose's performance. Moose has the low innings total because he was a college pitcher, and he cracked the bigs at age 22. Shields took a little more time to develop and made it to the majors at age 25.

Mind you, this is what I think his ceiling is, as in absolute best. That's really good, a borderline HOF'er with the longevity that Moose has had. A young Mike Mussina was consistently one of the better pitchers in the AL for about a decade without ever being the best.

The thing I like most about Bowden is that even if he doesn't hit that ceiling, with his demonstrated command, he's a safe bet to be a serviceable pitcher at a minimum, provided he stays healthy.

[Jim_Chandley]

Kid will be dirty. They say his attitude is outstanding on top of all the other stuff we've discussed

[Rdsxmbnt]

5.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 Runs (1 ER), 1 BB, 5 K

Theo in attendence, could it be time for a promotion?

[ksushi]

Could be. He has had a fantastic first half. It would be deserved. Anyone know if he is still the youngest player in AA?

BTW, rdsx, props for the old school Lester avatar.

[Rdsxmbnt]

another pretty solid outing: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Season: 89.0 IP, 58 hits, 19 BB, 83 K, 2.33 ERA

[Mr Crunchy]

its mindboggling how successful our pitching has developed and the blessing is that none have been injured with the obvious exception of jon lester getting cancer.
the a's have had similar luck with their pitching development
seems everyone they bring up stays healthy and produces till they sell

[jacksonianmarch]

Harden?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Reading all these minor league stats on the Internet makes me want to Ralph.

Or, to be more specific, ERALF.

ERALF is a Luck-free ERA. All pitchers, but particularly minor league pitchers, get their ERA distorted by circumstances. Last winter Clay Davenport invented the ERALF, described in full here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=7165

Let's use this to look at Bowden. Checking BR, Bowden has an ERA of 2.33 at AA Portland this morning. Is he really that good?

Not according to ERALF. His ERALF is 3.12, almost a run higher than his ERA.

Bummer. Does that mean that he's not as good as we thought?

Probably not. BP now offers MLEs for minor league players. Based upon his 2008 performance, Bowden projects to a 3.91 ERALF in MLB right now, or a 3.66 ERALF at his peak. BP also gives Runs Above Replacement (RAR), which is similar to VORP. Bowden is at 38 RAR in AA, translating to 25 RAR in MLB. That would put Bowden right between Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez as the fifth-best pitcher in the AL.

Look, probably Bowden wouldn't do quite that well if brought up to MLB right now--we're translating Bowden's best season, not his established level, and we don't know if he's gotten better or if he's gotten lucky in 2008 (even using ERALF doesn't eliminate ALL factors that might be called luck). But even if Bowden is only half as valuable as these metrics suggest--12.5 RAR at the MLB level thus far in 2008--that would still put him between Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang as the 33rd-best pitcher in the AL, and 33rd-best in the AL is a very valuable pitcher indeed.

And he's just 21 years old until September...yeah, barring injury, this guy is gonna be good.

[jacksonianmarch]

there will be an adjustment period. Bowden seems like the kind of guy who needs a little bit of time before he hits his stride.