Baseball Analysts Top-75 Prospects

[One Red Seat]

Baseball Analysts is releasing its top-75 prospects this week. They started with an Honorable Mention list on Monday, then 75-51 on Tuesday, 50-26 on Wednesday, 25-11 today, and the top-10 will be released on Friday. Here's are the lists and where the Sox youngsters ended up:

Honorable Mention

75-51

50-26

50. Craig Hansen - RP - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: Few statements represent the massive ideological change that baseball has undergone in the past 50 years as this: Craig Hansen was heavily considered to be drafted first overall. A reliever. Obviously, no position has undergone a change in such a period as the relief position. Closers are extremely valuable commodities, so much so, that first round picks are now being used on them. We've seen Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and Huston Street all picked in the first round. Derrick Lutz and others will do so in the 2006 draft. 2005's best talent was Craig Hansen, who may have the best stuff of any college closer. While Hansen's level of competition wasn't super-high, there was not a more dominating force in college baseball last year.

Skillset/Future: Many have called for the Red Sox to move Hansen back to starting, but I'm not sure this is the best move. How will his stuff hold up for 200 innings? In about 80 innings per year, Hansen has a slider that is unparalleled in the minors. It hits the high-80s consistently, and at times, touches the low 90s. His fastball is about 95-98 mph, and he has very good control of the pitch. Craig does not allow home runs, walk too many batters, or give up very many hits. The Red Sox will make him their closer within two years, and he should succeeding pitching on one of baseball's biggest stages.

42. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: We knew the day of the draft that Pedroia was a steal. So, pardon me, for if in the future I go back and criticize teams for not taking Dustin at a higher slot. Forget that he was an older college player with limited potential. This is a guy that had hit .400 in his sophomore season, and topped a .500 OBP in his junior season. In his final two years at Arizona State, Pedroia's OPS was over 1.050. He struck out just 47 times in all of college. Ian Kinsler was blocked because Pedroia was just too good. Yet Dustin slipped to the 65th pick because the best comparisons he could muster were David Eckstein, just because of his tiny height. It's really too bad for all these teams, because by missing out in Pedroia, they missed out in one of the 3 safest picks in the draft.

Skillset/Future: There has been a lot of talk about Dustin this winter, now that the Red Sox middle infield situation is questionable. With Hanley Ramirez now out of the system, and Edgar Renteria traded, it's quite possible that Pedroia will move back to shortstop this season. As a result, the Red Sox will likely fill that hole with just a part-time solution (maybe just Alex Cora), as they wait for Dustin to get a little more seasoning in AAA. They will find he won't need much, as his poor 2005 Pawtucket line can really be blamed on an unlucky .261 BABIP. When that returns to normal levels, expect Pedroia to continue to post high batting averages while showing some of the best plate discipline in professional baseball. Oh, and he has a little pop, too.

25-11

22. Jon Papelbon - SP/RP - Boston Red Sox - 25 (MLB )

Introduction: In November of 2004, I predicted that Jon Papelbon and Jon Lester would, in one year's time, be "one of the 3 best 1-2 pitching prospect tandems in the minor leagues." I was wrong. They are the best. Detroit, Texas, Florida, Los Angeles and others have good combinations, but none match the prospect status of Papelbon and Lester. Papelbon's big breakout ended in a trip to the Majors, where he went back to his college role, helping out in the Red Sox depleted bullpen. After giving up four earned runs in his first three appearances, Papelbon would settle and get used to the role, allowing just 2 ER in his last 14 innings.

Skillset/Future: The Red Sox are now left with the difficult decision of what to do with Jon Papelbon. It seems as if the team will again start by trying him in the rotation, and if he labors (or the team really needs a reliever) he will move to the bullpen. This is probably the best philosophy, though I don't think that move to the 'pen will have to happen. Papelbon can throw five different pitches, and has found much success (especially against left-handers) with a splitter learned from Curt Schilling. His fastball (92-95 mph) has great control, and Jon also offers a nasty slider. Those three pitches comprise most of what he throws, though he can also offer another breaking pitch and a change up. This guy is nasty, and if his control returns to the levels it was in the minors, don't forget about him in the AL Rookie of the Year race.

14. Jon Lester - SP - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: My favorite prospect in the minors, Lester more than validated the confidence I had in him in 2005. Once coveted for Randy Johnson, the Red Sox refused to trade him, and for good reason. Lester would be the Eastern League's best pitcher in 2005, as the Red Sox were conservative with him, placing him on a pitch count and refusing to move him up a level. With no pressing needs at the Major League level, Lester was best in further honing his skills in the minors. Having turned 22 on Saturday, Jon will not be kept from the Majors much longer. Look for the team to bring him up sometime early in the midseason, when their schedule is soft and he can be broken in easily.

Skillset/Future: Lester profiles to be a #2 pitcher at the pro level. Like Papelbon, the Red Sox had him working on a new pitch in 2005, with Lester trying to develop a cutter. The results were successful, as Jon continued to improve against right-handed batters. In addition to the cutter, Lester throws a fastball with great movement up into the mid 90s, and a good change up and curveball. This season, he started to draw comparisons to Andy Pettite, which certainly isn't the worst thing in the world. His control is inconsistent, but if offered, could be a weapon. Lester is so close to being Major League quality, the Red Sox could trade both David Wells and Matt Clement, and their rotation could improve.

I would imagine Marte is in the top-10. I love the part about Papelbon/Lester being the best 1/2 prospect combo.

[gosox613]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but what is the stat "BABIP" they mention in pedroia's part.

[One Red Seat]

Batting Average on Balls In Play

BABIP is usually right around .300 (it was .298 for the AL this year). Here's how you calculate it:

(H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO)

This tells you how successful the hitter was at getting a hit when the fielders had a chance to field the ball.

EDIT: Below average is considered unlucky, and above average is considered lucky. This is because studies have shown that pitchers have very little control over where the ball ends up after being hit, and the pitcher's BABIP can fluctuate pretty drastically from year to year. Here's how you determine pitcher's BABIP:

(H - HR) / (TBF - BB - HBP - SO - HR)

[elsrbueno]

These guys also had a pretty harsh review of Hanley Ramirez. Are these guys Sox fans? Calling Papelbon/Lester the best 1-2 punch (prospect wise) in baseball and pumping up the Sox for trading Hanley.

36. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins - 22 (AAA)

Introduction: What in the world is there left to expect of Hanley Ramirez. We have gone from thinking he was a budding superstar, to being convinced he was a bust. In 2004, he made us think he did have All-Star potential, before allowing us to back off that opinion in 2005. There has not been a more volatile player in minor league baseball the last three years than Ramirez. Because of that, and ongoing make-up issues that angered the organization, the Red Sox were quick to trade Ramirez to the Marlins this winter. The opposite of a player like Russ Martin, Hanley is firmly on the scouts side of the infamous scouts v. stats debate. Whether he ever joins the other side is a fact that we all remain quite skeptical of.

Skillset/Future: It seemed very unlikely a year ago that Hanley would be able to stay at shortstop, especially when Boston signed Edgar Renteria. I began to warm to that very idea, thinking that Ramirez would look great in center field. However, now moved to the Marlin organization, it's almost assured Ramirez will stay up the middle, where his defense will play at about average. His power is pretty non-existent, and at this point, expecting 20 home runs is pretty foolish. Hanley does make really consistent contact, and as a result, could be a .300 hitter in the Bigs. But, at this point it is unlikely he will ever walk very much, and his baserunning is too inconsistent to make him a threat at the top of a lineup. On a championship team, Ramirez is simply a seven or eight hitter that provides moments of greatness around a sea of mediocrity.

Granted, he didn't prove a damn thing and as I've already said Marte is a much better hitting prospect, so overall the team did very well to keep Lester and Papelbon and add Marte future-wise.

Anibal Sanchez (also traded to Florida) came in at #32. Just goes to show you the Sox newfound depth in the farm. They can trade 2 top 50 prospects and still have 4 prospects in the top 50. Add Marte to that and they've got 5 in the top 50. Certainly a glowing review of the farm system and if you ask me-- it's about time.

[yeszir]

I am a firm believer that the higher a prospect is rated on such a list, the bigger a bust he will be. You're almost as well off with a 75-100 rated prospect as you are with a 1-10 type guy.

[One Red Seat]

Originally Posted by yeszir

I am a firm believer that the higher a prospect is rated on such a list, the bigger a bust he will be. You're almost as well off with a 75-100 rated prospect as you are with a 1-10 type guy.

I hope you don't mean to suggest that every top-10 is destined for failure. Manny, Jeter, ARod, and truckload of other elite MLB players were once listed as top-10 prospects. I do think part of what you say is correct. The higher the ranking, the bigger the bust, IF they do indeed bust. But this shouldn't be surprising, because the higher the player is ranked, the more hype there is about the player.

[riverside sluggers]

an article that has an interview with Marte. Recently assistant GM had visited him in his home country and asked if he were willing to play left field... But still as we know, Manny will be in a Red Sox uni on opening day and wont be packing up his place he has in the green monster

http://www.ecnnews.com/cgi-bin/05/sn...0112-20060112-

[Beckett95]

papelbon also sayd today in the maine today paper that he want to start this year for the sox.

http://sports.mainetoday.com/pro/redsox/060110sox.shtml

[yeszir]

Originally Posted by One Red Seat

I hope you don't mean to suggest that every top-10 is destined for failure. Manny, Jeter, ARod, and truckload of other elite MLB players were once listed as top-10 prospects. I do think part of what you say is correct. The higher the ranking, the bigger the bust, IF they do indeed bust. But this shouldn't be surprising, because the higher the player is ranked, the more hype there is about the player.

No, not at all. Of course top 10 prospects come through somewhat frequently, I'm just saying its rarely, if ever, a sure thing like in the NFL.

[One Red Seat]

"If they want me in the pen, and if that's where I can help the team out, I want to do that," he said. "Deep down I'd like to be a starter. I think that's where I'm more effective. We'll see as spring training rolls along."

I love this attitude. Whatever it takes to contibute.

[Cityofchampions33]

Oh man these are gunna be a good few years watching our 1-2 combo get groomed into the Majors and flourish.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

The future's bright, boys.

[RedSoxRooter]

So if it was released today, who made the top 10???

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Originally Posted by RedSoxRooter

So if it was released today, who made the top 10???

I just checked it out, Marte is 9th and 1st is Delmon Young of the Devil Rays.

[RedSoxRooter]

About one month ago, I looked at Andy Marte's "disappointing" season in detail. I put quotes around disappointing, because I am not one in that corner. There is no doubt that Marte didn't progress much this year, but he also wasn't horrible. People are too quick to judge him by his Major League stats (sample size!), Dominican Winter League stats (started very slow, came back strong), and a lack of a breakout season. However, my contention is that the only thing that was damaged this year was Andy's confidence. After struggling pretty bad in the Majors, he would go to struggle after being demoted. The first time, it resulted in a .196/.304/.340 stretch for nearly a month. The second time, it put considerable dead weight on his year-long DWL stats.

If the Red Sox are serious about keeping Marte, they must do everything in their power to re-build his confidence. With Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and J.T. Snow in the fold, the team will be able to leave Andy in AAA for much of the season. He should start to hit confidently in Pawtucket, and begin to break out in the ways that we have been projecting for years. I made the comparison in the article linked above, and I will again: don't be shocked if, in the end, Andy Marte ends up as Paul Konerko with enough agility to stick at third.