BA Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

[scaffolds]

You have to remmember that this is mainly a one man's opinion and he hasn't seen most of this players and he is only going by what other people has told him, most of the 06 draft pick haven't played as profesional or if they have not many games, i guess Callis would rather have a new pair of shoes than a used one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Either way. That list is Ellsbury and nothing higher than AA (aside from Hansen mind you and we know what he is). I was advised by someone in my youth when I'd get excited about prospects to say essentially, 60% of the top 10 pitching prospects in an org will bomb out and never make the bigs, most of them before they hit AA. Of the ones that make the bigs, only half will stick regularly. AA success has a high correlation with progressing to the major leagues. Right now, the sox have one guy in the minors for 2007 who has success in AA and who is a legit MLB prospect and he only throws a ball when one is hit to him. Until then, Bard, Buchholz, and Bowden are lottery tickets, so dont get excited over them until they show their true stuff in AA. That is why I wrote in another post that the yankees farm is set. They have 3 top 10 prospect starters who dominated AA and a AA closer who was lights out. Right now, the sox are about 1-3 yrs away from that potentially happening.

[AMarshal2]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Either way. That list is Ellsbury and nothing higher than AA (aside from Hansen mind you and we know what he is). I was advised by someone in my youth when I'd get excited about prospects to say essentially, 60% of the top 10 pitching prospects in an org will bomb out and never make the bigs, most of them before they hit AA. Of the ones that make the bigs, only half will stick regularly. AA success has a high correlation with progressing to the major leagues. Right now, the sox have one guy in the minors for 2007 who has success in AA and who is a legit MLB prospect and he only throws a ball when one is hit to him. Until then, Bard, Buchholz, and Bowden are lottery tickets, so dont get excited over them until they show their true stuff in AA. That is why I wrote in another post that the yankees farm is set. They have 3 top 10 prospect starters who dominated AA and a AA closer who was lights out. Right now, the sox are about 1-3 yrs away from that potentially happening.

While what you say is true, you are making it overly simplistic with your analysis that the Yankees are "set" and the Red Sox are years away. Barring injury Clay Buchholz will make the major leagues. (I actually like him more than I liked Anibal Sanchez a year ago today.) The same is more or less true for Daniel Bard. You have to consider the skill-sets too and not just their level of performance. Obviously Hughes is the best pitching prospect in either organization and obviously he's likely to be a very successful major leaguer, but he's really the only one. J.B. Cox is not as highly regarded as either Bryce Cox or Craig Hansen. Tyler Clippard is inconsistent and often has to work backwards because his fastball is below average. Hansen had lots of success at AA, allowing only 1 run in his entire stay there, but he was relying almost entirely on his fastball. With his slider disappearing he wasn't able to transition effectively to the Majors (and he won't until he finds it again). With minor league pitchers scouting reports are more important than the level they have had success at. Just ask Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus if you don't believe me.

My combined MFY's/Red Sox pitching prospect rankings:
1. Phil Hughes
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Humberto Sanchez
4. Michael Bowden
5. Daniel Bard
6. Joba Chamberlain
7. Dellin Betances
8. Craig Hansen
9. Bryce Cox
10. Kris Johnson

edit: thanks for the reply scaff.

[a700hitter]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Until then, Bard, Buchholz, and Bowden are lottery tickets, so dont get excited over them until they show their true stuff in AA.

Hey any Yankee fan that steals my lines has to pay a royalty. Cut it out or I'll have you served with papers.

[CrespoBlows]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Either way. That list is Ellsbury and nothing higher than AA (aside from Hansen mind you and we know what he is).

We do?

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by AMarshal2

While what you say is true, you are making it overly simplistic with your analysis that the Yankees are "set" and the Red Sox are years away. Barring injury Clay Buchholz will make the major leagues. (I actually like him more than I liked Anibal Sanchez a year ago today.) The same is more or less true for Daniel Bard. You have to consider the skill-sets too and not just their level of performance. Obviously Hughes is the best pitching prospect in either organization and obviously he's likely to be a very successful major leaguer, but he's really the only one. J.B. Cox is not as highly regarded as either Bryce Cox or Craig Hansen. Tyler Clippard is inconsistent and often has to work backwards because his fastball is below average. Hansen had lots of success at AA, allowing only 1 run in his entire stay there, but he was relying almost entirely on his fastball. With his slider disappearing he wasn't able to transition effectively to the Majors (and he won't until he finds it again). With minor league pitchers scouting reports are more important than the level they have had success at. Just ask Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus if you don't believe me.

My combined MFY's/Red Sox pitching prospect rankings:
1. Phil Hughes
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Humberto Sanchez
4. Michael Bowden
5. Daniel Bard
6. Joba Chamberlain
7. Dellin Betances
8. Craig Hansen
9. Bryce Cox
10. Kris Johnson

edit: thanks for the reply scaff.

First off, I have never pledged my allegiances to any team publicly. I am on many team sites as a different name of each. To be honest with you, I am a fan of the AL East as I think it is the best division in baseball over the test of time, but you'd be surprised to find out my true allegiance.

My "simplistic" view is the way you need to look at it. You cannot say that barring injury Buchholz will make the majors, nor can you say Bard will. I have seen scouting reports on some pitchers who essentially should be Cy Young incarnate. Then, the kid disappears and goodbye. Buchholz and Bard have pitched no games above single A. It is very likely that they will come to AA and dominate, but that is the proving ground. It is also possible that they could go to AA and bomb out. For example, if you buy the hype on the yankee side, they will eventually have a staff of Wang, Hughes, Sanchez, Clippard, Chamberlain, Betances, Garcia, Kennedy, etc etc etc. Wang is the ace. Sanchez has proven he can handle AA and could even handle AAAwhile injured. Hughes dominated AA. Clippard dominated AA. That is my proving ground. Of those 3, Hughes and Sanchez seem to be high likelihood to make the majors and stick in the rotation. Clippard's stuff is suspect, but control can get you to the bigs. Just ask Maddux. But to be honest with you, none of those guys are a guarantee, but I'll take them right now because they are higher in level.

If you continually hype every single prospect as the next ace of the staff before they get above single A, you will drive yourself crazy. For every Carlos Zambrano or John Papelbon, there are 10 Bill Pulsipher's and Paul Wilson's. If you werent around when those guys plus Izzy were coming up with the Mets, then you dont understand what I mean. Isringhausen, Pulsipher, and Paul Wilson were Mets prospects who were billed as the big three, but none delivered. Pulsipher became a minor league journeyman. Isringhausen was dealt to Oakland and he was converted to a closer. Paul Wilson didnt right his ship until he was in Tampa Bay and he never lived up to his #1 overall status. Just because you have the stuff, doesnt mean you will harness it. For now they are all ???'s. I'll just take the ones who have dominated the league where the best prospects in the game reside, rather than just acting like the big fish in the small pond in single A.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

We do?

I think Hansen needs a change of scenery. He looks like defeated every time he takes the bump. He should be a good one, but I am not sure if it will be in Fenway.

[scaffolds]

Hansesn doesn't need to change teams, what he needs its a change of organization philosophy or way to coach its pitchers.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I think Hansen needs a change of scenery. He looks like defeated every time he takes the bump. He should be a good one, but I am not sure if it will be in Fenway.

That was quick. A player at his age only gets part of a season before he needs to be moved. A change of scenery? I think just the opposite. From college to AA to AAA to MLB back to AAA.....what he needs is a place to get comfortable. Craig Hansen has many years in major league baseball.....lets not throw him away after several months of service and pretend we know what he will become.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by SchillingIsTheNatural

That was quick. A player at his age only gets part of a season before he needs to be moved. A change of scenery? I think just the opposite. From college to AA to AAA to MLB back to AAA.....what he needs is a place to get comfortable. Craig Hansen has many years in major league baseball.....lets not throw him away after several months of service and pretend we know what he will become.

I petitioned for him to be left in AAA last yr and not be brought up, especially after he had poor initial debut in 2005. But instead, Tito decided to go to the kid in every single clutch chance he had, and the kid got Carmona'd. I hope he can gather his talents and put a good career together, but he just had that deer in headlights look. In KC or in PIT, that would be fine, but in the NE, that is trouble.

[jacksonianmarch]

anyone able to cut and paste the top 10 scouting reports to the post?

[AMarshal2]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

First off, I have never pledged my allegiances to any team publicly. I am on many team sites as a different name of each. To be honest with you, I am a fan of the AL East as I think it is the best division in baseball over the test of time, but you'd be surprised to find out my true allegiance.

My "simplistic" view is the way you need to look at it. You cannot say that barring injury Buchholz will make the majors, nor can you say Bard will. I have seen scouting reports on some pitchers who essentially should be Cy Young incarnate. Then, the kid disappears and goodbye. Buchholz and Bard have pitched no games above single A. It is very likely that they will come to AA and dominate, but that is the proving ground. It is also possible that they could go to AA and bomb out. For example, if you buy the hype on the yankee side, they will eventually have a staff of Wang, Hughes, Sanchez, Clippard, Chamberlain, Betances, Garcia, Kennedy, etc etc etc. Wang is the ace. Sanchez has proven he can handle AA and could even handle AAAwhile injured. Hughes dominated AA. Clippard dominated AA. That is my proving ground. Of those 3, Hughes and Sanchez seem to be high likelihood to make the majors and stick in the rotation. Clippard's stuff is suspect, but control can get you to the bigs. Just ask Maddux. But to be honest with you, none of those guys are a guarantee, but I'll take them right now because they are higher in level.

If you continually hype every single prospect as the next ace of the staff before they get above single A, you will drive yourself crazy. For every Carlos Zambrano or John Papelbon, there are 10 Bill Pulsipher's and Paul Wilson's. If you werent around when those guys plus Izzy were coming up with the Mets, then you dont understand what I mean. Isringhausen, Pulsipher, and Paul Wilson were Mets prospects who were billed as the big three, but none delivered. Pulsipher became a minor league journeyman. Isringhausen was dealt to Oakland and he was converted to a closer. Paul Wilson didnt right his ship until he was in Tampa Bay and he never lived up to his #1 overall status. Just because you have the stuff, doesnt mean you will harness it. For now they are all ???'s. I'll just take the ones who have dominated the league where the best prospects in the game reside, rather than just acting like the big fish in the small pond in single A.

Grandpa, thanks for the history lesson on Generation K. I said two of the pitchers would likely make the majors if they can stay healthy. All three Mets pitchers got hurt, you failed to include that tid-bit in your walk down memory lane. Listen, you can be exclusive and consider all pitchers who have had success at AA or higher above every pitcher who is below AA but you will be wrong a whole lot more than somebody who considers all the available information. And to suggest that I was hyping A ball pitchers as the next Carlos Zambrano is just annoying, read my words. I wasn't even accusing you of siding with one team or the other, I just think your way of analyzing pitching prospects is misguided. Plus you are vaguely alluding to these AA and AAA arms on the Yankees. Please name your names so I don't have to guess if you're talking about Colter Bean or J.B. Cox.

I also think it's funny that we "know" what Hansen is.

anyone able to cut and paste the top 10 scouting reports to the post?

Does this mean you haven't even read the scouting reports?

[scaffolds]

While BA has DAvid Pauley in the 30-40 categorie as a prospect in the Sox system he showed again in the AFL that he isn't a prospect.

[bosoxnation07]

First, Matsuzaka is not only really good, he is only 26, the same age as Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon (who turns 26 on Nov. 23). When he was MVP of the World Baseball Classic, Matsuzaka was dominant with great stuff, great command and unpredictability. He didn't turn 26 until Sept. 13, so his three-year record at 23, 24 and 25 was 547 1/3 innings pitched, 437 hits, 125 walks, 553 strikeouts.


Boston still has Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield. But if the Red Sox get Matsuzaka, they not only go into 2007 with a formidable five-man rotation, but also -- with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard on the horizon -- could have big starting pitching for the next five years
That was from Peter Gammons weblog. Does he really expect for Bucholz and Bard to be up on the ML team this soon? Just thought it make for good debate.

[scaffolds]

Bard and perhaps Bowden more than likely won't be ready for the 2008, but there is a very good chance Buckholz will along with relievers Hansen, Del Carmen, Martinez, Jackson and Cox.