This is why you dont call up pitching prospects prior to being ready

[jacksonianmarch]

Look no further than Craig Hansen. Great stuff, composure shaky. Comes up too quickly, loses confidence, becomes bat shy and goes into the shitter. If Hansen had been handled properly, he would probably be an effective member of the pen. Now he is getting the shit kicked out of him in AAA.

14IP 18H 10BB 14K

And off-topic. The sox balked at giving up Delcarmen for Helton? Wow.

17.2IP 22H 8BB 25K 5.60ERA

Delcarmen, OTOH, was brought along as his age dictated and as his success dictated. He just isnt all that good of a MLB pitcher. But Hansen, a first round pick with Papelbon-esque stuff is struggling mostly because he is now bat shy after getting the shit kicked out of him. If you bring up Buchholz and he gets shit on like Hansen did, you risk losing your biggest chip/prospect when you honestly dont need to right now.

[ksushi]

Yeah, it's true. Bringing him up hurt him big development wise. I think he can get it back though, he's a cocky kid and he still has the great stuff, just not the location yet, he needs to learn to pitch. Hopefully its not a nerve thing, but it takes longer to tell when you're talking about a guy who was in college like a year and a half ago.

Delcarmen just flat out is not a major league pitcher right now. He has great pitches, but you can't say a guy has good stuff when he can't get his curveball over the plate at all. When you can't do that, no matter how good your fastball is, its gonna get hit. His curve is his only passable offspeed pitch but its never in the zone. I don't know if he'll pan out to be much right now.

I highly doubt Bucholz will see this bigs any time soon. Lester is on a faster track, and even if Lester isn't Julian is a viable option right now to go the rest of the season. I think they will give it to Lester sometime this year, but point is, Bucholz has no where to go really except maybe tripe-A if he stays this nasty. He is downright filthy right now, Bowden is pretty locked in too pitching in a hitters league and a hitters park, hes putting people away. With that kind of talent right there, bowden is 20 buch is 22, we have plenty of time to wait. If they get the Hansen/Cla meredith treatment I'll be surprised, but who knows.

[example1]

Originally Posted by ksushi

Yeah, it's true. Bringing him up hurt him big development wise. I think he can get it back though, he's a cocky kid and he still has the great stuff, just not the location yet, he needs to learn to pitch. Hopefully its not a nerve thing, but it takes longer to tell when you're talking about a guy who was in college like a year and a half ago.

Delcarmen just flat out is not a major league pitcher right now. He has great pitches, but you can't say a guy has good stuff when he can't get his curveball over the plate at all. When you can't do that, no matter how good your fastball is, its gonna get hit. His curve is his only passable offspeed pitch but its never in the zone. I don't know if he'll pan out to be much right now.

I highly doubt Bucholz will see this bigs any time soon. Lester is on a faster track, and even if Lester isn't Julian is a viable option right now to go the rest of the season. I think they will give it to Lester sometime this year, but point is, Bucholz has no where to go really except maybe tripe-A if he stays this nasty. He is downright filthy right now, Bowden is pretty locked in too pitching in a hitters league and a hitters park, hes putting people away. With that kind of talent right there, bowden is 20 buch is 22, we have plenty of time to wait. If they get the Hansen/Cla meredith treatment I'll be surprised, but who knows.

Hansen was in the bigs within weeks of signing. THAT is too fast. Otherwise you just have to judge what the talent level of the player is. You better believe that if a player is good enough to actually contribute to winning a WS he will be playing. There are many examples of success when brought up young and I trust this FO to make the right call.

[riverside sluggers]

Ehh Julian Tavarez the 5th starter the rest of the season?? That just doesnt sit well with me. He'll have his good starts sure, but more time than naught he will be in the shitter

[One Red Seat]

What a load of revisionist crap. Hansen absolutely dominated in his short professional debut in AA, albeit in a small sample, and they needed relief help in year they made the playoffs. It's as simple as that. A team makes that move 10 times out of 10. It didn't work out. Oh well.

As for the following year, I think the screw up is changing too many things with the way he pitches. He's still learning to do what they want him to. He's far from ruined. I mean, look no further than Cla Meredith, "ruined" after being called up. They got impatient, traded him, and now look at him in SD.

[bosoxnation07]

Jacko is this all you got? You have to bring up Hansen who hasn't even been relevent since ST?

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

Jacko is this all you got? You have to bring up Hansen who hasn't even been relevent since ST?

this is all I got? Cmon now. I read the post about bringing up Buchholz and laughed. You dont rush pitchers!!! Here and there you can skip a levelm but bringing Buchholz to the majors would be akin to what they did to Hansen. Hear me out. Hansen was signed and skipped all levels essentially and made it to the majors, got shitcanned and now is pretty bad in AAA. Buchholz spent nearly the entire season in A ball. He got all of 3 starts in A+ ball. Starting him out in AA skipped the A+ level essentially. If he comes up to the majors this yr, you have him crossing A+ ball, AA ball, AAA ball and MLB ball in one calendar yr. That is insane. That is rushing. And THAT will result in him getting crushed. And when a young pitcher with lights out stuff learns the hard knocks of major league pitching way before he is ready to, it can ruin him. I think anyone who is wishing for Buchholz to be your 5th starter in May or June should take a long look at what rushing did to Hansen.

In terms of a playoff team needing pitching help, wake up ORS. Why did he only get 3IP then? If he was so critical to a team that needed BP help for the stretch, why was he hardly even touched? Your excuse is bullshit. And you always rag on me for small sample sizes, wake up and smell the hypocrisy. His "amazing stint" in AA before he was called up was a grand total of 9IP with a hit per inning. That should tell you something. The sox rushed him. Dont cover it up. Dont BS it away. He was rushed. And now look at him. Showing uncanny control issues, something he hasnt had to this degree since his freshman yr at college.

[One Red Seat]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

In terms of a playoff team needing pitching help, wake up ORS. Why did he only get 3IP then? If he was so critical to a team that needed BP help for the stretch, why was he hardly even touched? Your excuse is bullshit. And you always rag on me for small sample sizes, wake up and smell the hypocrisy. His "amazing stint" in AA before he was called up was a grand total of 9IP with a hit per inning. That should tell you something. The sox rushed him. Dont cover it up. Dont BS it away. He was rushed. And now look at him. Showing uncanny control issues, something he hasnt had to this degree since his freshman yr at college.

They didn't have BP issues that year?

Funny, I recall stating it was a small sample, so your attempt at labeling me a hypocrite is reaching. I'll tell you why he didn't get more than 3 IP. One, he didn't pitch well after the good start against Tampa. Two, Francona suffers from the same aversion to youngsters that Torre does. The Sox played a lot of close games down the stretch, and Francona was only using him when the game was in hand either way. He wasn't going to replace Timlin, who was closing, or Papelbon, who was setting up. The hope was that he could provide some stability to the MRP corps, but, like I said, it didn't work out.

It's not an excuse, Jacko. It just provides some perspective that you so conveniently ignore with your 20/20 hindsight analysis.

[Coco's Disciples]

Soooo Phil Hughes? Most said he shouldn't be up until 08.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by Coco's Disciples

Soooo Phil Hughes? Most said he shouldn't be up until 08.

Phil Hughes had 12 starts in A ball, 10 starts in A+ ball, 21 starts in AA ball, and 3 starts in AAA ball. He was rushed, no doubt about it, but he jumped one level every season.

2004- rookie
2005- A and A+
2006- A+ and AA
2007- AAA and MLB

Buchholz looks like this.
2005- A- ball
2006- A and A+ (3 starts)
2007- AA- ???

Even if you put him on the fasttrack, you shouldnt see him any higher than Pawtucket this yr. And if you want to draw a paralell to Hughes, Hughes wasnt brought up to AA until right about this time last yr. If Buchholz follows the Hughes model, he'd see the majors mid season next yr IF NEEDED. But right now, Theo would be smart to take him off the shelf as a viable rotation option.

[CrespoBlows]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Look no further than Craig Hansen. Great stuff, composure shaky. Comes up too quickly, loses confidence, becomes bat shy and goes into the shitter. If Hansen had been handled properly, he would probably be an effective member of the pen. Now he is getting the shit kicked out of him in AAA.

14IP 18H 10BB 14K

And off-topic. The sox balked at giving up Delcarmen for Helton? Wow.

17.2IP 22H 8BB 25K 5.60ERA

Delcarmen, OTOH, was brought along as his age dictated and as his success dictated. He just isnt all that good of a MLB pitcher. But Hansen, a first round pick with Papelbon-esque stuff is struggling mostly because he is now bat shy after getting the shit kicked out of him. If you bring up Buchholz and he gets shit on like Hansen did, you risk losing your biggest chip/prospect when you honestly dont need to right now.

Swore it could have been that loss of the slider that did him in.

[CrespoBlows]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Phil Hughes had 12 starts in A ball, 10 starts in A+ ball, 21 starts in AA ball, and 3 starts in AAA ball. He was rushed, no doubt about it, but he jumped one level every season.

2004- rookie
2005- A and A+
2006- A+ and AA
2007- AAA and MLB

Buchholz looks like this.
2005- A- ball
2006- A and A+ (3 starts)
2007- AA- ???

Even if you put him on the fasttrack, you shouldnt see him any higher than Pawtucket this yr. And if you want to draw a paralell to Hughes, Hughes wasnt brought up to AA until right about this time last yr. If Buchholz follows the Hughes model, he'd see the majors mid season next yr IF NEEDED. But right now, Theo would be smart to take him off the shelf as a viable rotation option.

Dontrelle Willis:

Minor League Innings - 315.2 IP (only 35.2 IP at AA ball)

Clay Buchholtz

Minor League Innings - 215 IP
College Innings Pitched - 212 IP

If his stuff, composure is as good as everyone says it is, he should be able to give the Red Sox league average innings.

[jacksonianmarch]

Are you seriously going to compare the marlins and the NL East to this division? Buchholz could probably start for the Marlins right now and be at least a NL average starter. This isnt the NL East. This is the dogfight in the AL East where every offense is vicious and loaded with premier talent. Hell, even the Rays are hitting this yr.

And most people in the know (scouting services that I have asked, mostly on scout.com and not the sox site which is fucking trash) do not consider college innings in their formula. Typically, you bring along a SP 30 innings at a time, starting them off in the 90-120 range their first full season and increasing by 30 every yr after that. Last yr, Buchholz threw 119IP. Therefore, if you want to stretch a starter out, you cap him this season at 149-150IP. Look at what happened to a guy like Prior.

First season out of college, they had him in the majors and he threw a total of 176IP. The next season, he threw 235IP (included playoffs) and now he is scrap heap material. That is a ridiculous jump.

Also, as nice as Buchholz composure and such is, his bread and butter is that he still overpowers hitters and although his walk totals are fantastic, they are more due to him overpowering hitters than locating where he should be locating. IE, he needs some work to fine tune his stuff. And right now, you may get a MLB average starter but it may take longer for him to become a finished product as he will just have too much learning to do and you could risk injuring him. But if you let him finish out the season in AA or AAA and work on locating all of his pitches, he will come closer to his potential sooner and could come up as a top of the rotation kind of guy.

And the bigger question is, do you need him? You have 4 guys in your rotation capable of throwing 200IP. All 4 are pretty damn dominant right now and you have a 8.5 game lead. Why risk it?

[CrespoBlows]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Are you seriously going to compare the marlins and the NL East to this division? Buchholz could probably start for the Marlins right now and be at least a NL average starter. This isnt the NL East. This is the dogfight in the AL East where every offense is vicious and loaded with premier talent. Hell, even the Rays are hitting this yr.

I don't think we need him right now, but he can certaintly pitch well if called upon. I think he's capable enough to give the Red Sox a 4.00 ERA.

And most people in the know (scouting services that I have asked, mostly on scout.com and not the sox site which is fucking trash) do not consider college innings in their formula.

I included the college innings, because he has more polish than Dontrelle Willis had when he was called up.

Typically, you bring along a SP 30 innings at a time, starting them off in the 90-120 range their first full season and increasing by 30 every yr after that. Last yr, Buchholz threw 119IP. Therefore, if you want to stretch a starter out, you cap him this season at 149-150IP. Look at what happened to a guy like Prior.

Dusty Baker happened to Mark Prior.

First season out of college, they had him in the majors and he threw a total of 176IP. The next season, he threw 235IP (included playoffs) and now he is scrap heap material. That is a ridiculous jump.

Yeah, that was pathetic. He even missed a month and threw 225 IP in the regular season.

Also, as nice as Buchholz composure and such is, his bread and butter is that he still overpowers hitters and although his walk totals are fantastic, they are more due to him overpowering hitters than locating where he should be locating. IE, he needs some work to fine tune his stuff. And right now, you may get a MLB average starter but it may take longer for him to become a finished product as he will just have too much learning to do and you could risk injuring him. But if you let him finish out the season in AA or AAA and work on locating all of his pitches, he will come closer to his potential sooner and could come up as a top of the rotation kind of guy.

I think he's proven that he can shut down the EL league. He needs to be moved up to Pawtucket, and then to Boston in August, a la Papelbon 2005.

And the bigger question is, do you need him? You have 4 guys in your rotation capable of throwing 200IP. All 4 are pretty damn dominant right now and you have a 8.5 game lead. Why risk it?

No, but if Gabbard and Pauley start getting most of the starts, I will kill Theo and personally insert Buchholtz.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dusty did happen to Prior. But look at the jumps. If you consider the modicum that Prior should have thrown a total of 120IP in his first season and 150 in his second, he threw 135 too many innings in his first 2 seasons.

Consider Buchholz. He threw just the perfect amount last yr at 119. Right now, he is at 34IP. Lets assume the sox bring him up to the majors right now as a700 was saying and best case is he is pretty damn good. That means, he will get 25 starts for the remainder of the season ((162-37)/5). Assume you get 6IP from him per start. That is 150IP in the bigs alone. That leaves him at 184IP at the end of the season (with the AA numbers) and if he outpitched any of the sox big 4, he'd be in line for at least 6, maybe even 20 or more innings of playoff pitching. That leaves him 35-50 innings over where he should be. It would also cement a rotation slot for him next yr, something that would all but guarantee him 200IP when he should be at 180. You are talking about 70+ innings of overwork in 2 seasons on a young prospects arm. You dont want to do that to a prize prospect.

But then consider the alternative. Even though Buchholz is dominating right now, there is no guarantee he will be solid right off the bat. Garza dominated the lower levels too and got hit pretty hard when he came up. Some players cannot handle that. Wait until he has complete control over his arsenal and learns how to pitch before throwing him to the wolves. You could ruin his confidence, his progression or his health in the process.