Sox 2007 Draft

[One Red Seat]

A committment to a school means nothing until they step in a classroom.

[example1]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

3 HS players is strange for the sox, who have always had sort of a money ball feel since Theo took over. And I am surprised the sox used their first pick on a pitcher who has limited projectability when Harvey was available.

Apparently they weren't the only ones who passed on Harvey. They must have disliked something about him.

How does this draft in terms of college vs. HS players. It is a pretty widely held opinion that the Moneyball approach of choosing college players is--as you likely know--seen as beneficial because 1) college players have a more thorough statistical track record against better competition (which is beneficial when trying to 'mine' statistics for high OBP/good plate control guys) and 2) they were undervalued.

I think 1) is still true. I think 2) is questionable as it trends the other direction. There are certain HS guys who truly better than some of their college counterparts but who would have been swept up for early-round money in years past.

I don't think the college thing is as hard-and-fast as it is often portrayed, just like I don't think the moneyball thing is always about going extremely cheap or for OBP over every other stat. I think its about finding the undervalued-value wherever it may lay at the time.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by riverside sluggers

Boston.com is reporting that Ryan Dent is committed to play for UCLA, Morris has been accepted to Auburn, and Huntzinger at Indian University. Its all about how the Sox approach these kids with signing bonuses to sway them

again, surprising. Maybe the sox liked what was coming down the pike next yr? Isnt there a rule now that if a player doesnt sign, you get a pick right after the one you would have had the following yr?

[example1]

Originally Posted by riverside sluggers

Boston.com is reporting that Ryan Dent is committed to play for UCLA, Morris has been accepted to Auburn, and Huntzinger at Indian University. Its all about how the Sox approach these kids with signing bonuses to sway them

Given their spending the past few years I see no reason to think they won't get their guys, or that they would pass on higher priced/higher reward guys if this was a serious risk.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by example1

Apparently they weren't the only ones who passed on Harvey. They must have disliked something about him.

How does this draft in terms of college vs. HS players. It is a pretty widely held opinion that the Moneyball approach of choosing college players is--as you likely know--seen as beneficial because 1) college players have a more thorough statistical track record against better competition (which is beneficial when trying to 'mine' statistics for high OBP/good plate control guys) and 2) they were undervalued.

I think 1) is still true. I think 2) is questionable as it trends the other direction. There are certain HS guys who truly better than some of their college counterparts but who would have been swept up for early-round money in years past.

I don't think the college thing is as hard-and-fast as it is often portrayed, just like I don't think the moneyball thing is always about going extremely cheap or for OBP over every other stat. I think its about finding the undervalued-value wherever it may lay at the time.

In terms of Harvey, the only thing that precluded him was the fact that he was a Boras client and he was asking for 8 mil and a MLB contract. I seriously thought the yankees or the sox could have met the monetary demands and kept him off the MLB contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, it goes both ways. The best players in the game seem to be all HS draftees. But you bomb out more on HS kids. High risk, high reward it seems.

[example1]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Well, it goes both ways. The best players in the game seem to be all HS draftees. But you bomb out more on HS kids. High risk, high reward it seems.

Yes. ALL players who ever become anything are, at one time, high schoolers so the HS draft has all players of a certain age who will ever be major leaguers. The college draft pool will hold a smaller percentage of the same group, considerably more sorted out than it was going into the college ranks.

In other words, if you pick a Jr or Sr college player you have a much better idea of what you're getting. However, if you trust your scouts and think you can tell a David Wright when you see one, then you're foolish to pass on him simply because he's in HS.

[phillysoxfan115]

At first glance, I'd say this draft is meh at best, but as I think about it, I think it is pretty good given their picks. Yes they could have had Harvey, Crosby, and more players of that caliber, but they did get solid players. The one thing that is odd to me is the similarities to last year's draft besides the 1st round of course. Nick Hagadone is a lefty who is a relative unknown kinda similar to Kris Johnson. You got Hunter Morris who is very like Jon Still with the power but thats it. You got the senior signs in Chris Province and Bryce Cox. So, as I thought about it, right now it looks weak, but we can't tell until after MLB's slotting period (1-11 rounds), when the Sox can start to use their deep pockets and not piss of Bud Selig. However, if the draft continues this way for the entire draft, then I'd be less than thrilled, especially when it was speculated that the Roger Clemens $ was going into the draft.

[jacksonianmarch]

Rd 1A- Player Name: Nick Hagadone- this is a safe pick IMO. Limited projectability, limited ceiling, high probability of reaching it

Rd 1A- Player Name: Ryan Dent- I really dislike this pick for the sox. Pedroia and Ellsbury are essentially the same player and both are in or near the majors. He seems to have a limited ceiling, no power and fully reliant on his speed. Arm is meh and looks like he'll be a 2b or a CFer. The sox may be better suited to let this kid go and take the compensation pick they'll get if he doesnt sign.

Rd 2- Player Name: Hunter Morris- Kid sounds like a project. High ceiling, high risk. Good pick in the second round though

Rd 3- Brock Huntzinger- dont know enough about this guy

Rd 4- Christopher Province- dont know enough about this guy

Rd 5- Player Name: Will Middlebrooks- I like this pick because of versatility. If he is forced to pick one, he could seriously improve. AND, if he tries one and fails, he always has that second option to go to. future.

[mouthbreather]

*spam*

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by mouthbreather

*spam*

bansky?

[example1]

Originally Posted by phillysoxfan115

At first glance, I'd say this draft is meh at best, but as I think about it, I think it is pretty good given their picks. Yes they could have had Harvey, Crosby, and more players of that caliber, but they did get solid players. The one thing that is odd to me is the similarities to last year's draft besides the 1st round of course. Nick Hagadone is a lefty who is a relative unknown kinda similar to Kris Johnson. You got Hunter Morris who is very like Jon Still with the power but thats it. You got the senior signs in Chris Province and Bryce Cox. So, as I thought about it, right now it looks weak, but we can't tell until after MLB's slotting period (1-11 rounds), when the Sox can start to use their deep pockets and not piss of Bud Selig. However, if the draft continues this way for the entire draft, then I'd be less than thrilled, especially when it was speculated that the Roger Clemens $ was going into the draft.

Nice post phillysoxfan. I think those are all valid comparisons.

I don't know about the whole clemens money going into the draft thing though. I think the Sox spent something like 8 million on last years draft (feel free to correct me, I'm pretty sure it was between 6-9 m somewhere) which is easily affordable for the number of guys they get if they feel like their scouting has been positive.

Looking at this draft so far, the amazing thing is how fortunate we were the past few years, in retrospect. They went from 10 1st round picks over 2 years to 2, so we shouldn't expect them to get a top-tier draft, when a team like the Giants has 5 first round picks.

I have a really good feeling about Middlebrooks, simply from the description of him that I've read of him he sounds like a guy who will play in the bigs. He already has the size (6-4), toughness (star football player in Texas) and arm to find a place on a big league team in 5 years.

Also, I love how absurd high school statistics can be. Brock Huntzinger could be the next Koufax!!

7-0, 43 IP, 0.16 ERA, 88K

What does that even mean?

[schillingouttheks]

I really wish I knew as much about young guns as you guys seem to...

[jacksonianmarch]

chances are, though, his arm will be a complementary piece rather than the whole shabang. Sounds like he'll be a 3b instead of a SP.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by schillingouttheks

I really wish I knew as much about young guns as you guys seem to...

it doesnt take much. Look at the stuff, look at the numbers, see what the scouts say and go from there. Its pretty easy to ferrett out the BS when you do your own leg work.

Just like some NESPN idiots who like to change their opinions on a dime, you learn who you should and who you shouldnt trust. Sure, the NESPN morons are good to hammer home a point, but some have been VERY wrong on guys who arent even that much hidden.

Case in point. Keith Law is a moron. I have used him to add to my points and discredited him when he doesnt. I know, bad moves, but still. He has said many times that a guy like Alan Horne (Yankee AA pitcher) has a future as nothing more than a #5 or a mopup man because he tops out at 90mph and has no movement. Then, 2 weeks later, he says Horne has a future as a back end of the rotation pitcher and tops out at 92 with his 4 seamer and has a mid 80s 2 seamer. Fact is, you go through scout.com (Yankee section only) and every now and then, through BA, and you will get the actual scoop. BUT, the best is if you go see them for yourself. I've seen Horne in Trenton this yr. He tops out at 96 and sits at 92-94 with his 4 seamer and tops out at 92 with the 2 seamer (sat right behind a scout with a juggs gun too to confirm the scoreboard readings when I wasnt too busy filling my face with hot dogs and nachos).

So overall, it doesnt take a lot. Just simple paying attention and interest can get you all you need. And none of us are experts. I dont think anyone can actually call themselves that because an expert wouldnt be wrong 3/4 of the time, like so many of these so called experts are.