The Top prospects in the Red Sox system.

[jacksonianmarch]

SP depth in the sox org is low, but with Beckett, DiceK, Buchholz, and Lester, they already have 4 spots taken up with guys who will be there for a long time. If they had to skimp somewhere, SP is it.

[scaffolds]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

SP depth in the sox org is low, but with Beckett, DiceK, Buchholz, and Lester, they already have 4 spots taken up with guys who will be there for a long time. If they had to skimp somewhere, SP is it.

Prospect pitching depth in an organization is very important, even if there not an immediate need for it at the ML level, because prepares an organization in case of injuries and in trades for other needs.

[scaffolds]

Kris Johnson is the system #18 prospect and the #1 LH starter. Johnson's fastball in college top out at 93, however that wasn't the case last year in Lancaster, his first playing in a full scheduled season which led to questions if he was all the way back from TJ surgery in 2005. While he had his ups and downs in Lancaster he was able to finish stronger than when he started. One of Johnson's issues in Lancaster was bases on balls as he had 57 in 136 IP. In 2008 johnsosn could start in Portland.

Dustin Richardson is the system #28 prospect. Richardson was a reliever in Lowell in 2006 after being drafted in 5th round and a starter in Greenville/ Lancaster last year, scouts view are different depending who you may ask some see him as a reliever others see him as a starter, for now Richardson will be a starter with a 90-91 fastball and a developing breaking pitches. Richardson pitched very well in Greenville? lancaster last year, but if he is going to remain as a starter he is going to have to keep his pitch count lower so that he can pitch more innings than the 5 IP average last year. Richardson should return to Lancaster in 2008.

Jose Alvarez was ranked 45th at the end of the year, but he may have pass by Jose Capellan for the third starting left handed in the system. Alvarez is small 5-11 160, but the 18 yrs Venezuelan has a low 90 fastball, In 2007playing in the GCL Alvarez opened some eyes and finished with a 1.84 ERA in 49 IP, this after having a 1.61 ERA in 61 IP in 2006 while playing in the DSL, however despite having a 202 batting average against in 2007 his K's number where a bit down. Alvarez should pitch in Lowell in 2008.

Jose Capellan was ranked as the system #37 prospect at the end of the year. Capellan was passed by Alvarez for a couple of reasons, one his fastball tops out at 90, but perhaps more important he needs to watch is weight carefully, Capellan weight has been as high as 220-225 in his 6-2 frame. Capellan's main pitch is his curve ball. The 21 yrs Dominican pitches from a low 3/4 release point and should be one of the starters at Greenville in 2008.

Felix Doubront is the # 50 ranked player is the system. Doubront was ranked by BA as the Sox's #18 best prospect in its pre-season ranking, that was shortly before Doubront had a Hernia surgery in Venezuela which made him miss the first month of the Greenville season, when he starting pitching for Greenville Doubront wasn't not even a shadow of the pitcher who lead the Red Sox to the championship of the GCL in 2006 or the pitcher of the year in the 2005 VSL, after a demotion to Lowell where he wasn't any better, but the last month of the lowell Doubront pitched a lot better and finished the season strong. In my opinion Doubront was never right from the hernia operation to the elbow issues that he in Greenville, a healthy Doubront will be back pitching in Greenville in 2008.


John Britton was ranked a lot lower mainly because was very inconsistent with his pitches, specially with his fastball where his velocity was up and down while pitching in H.S. in Texas this Spring and early Summer, after being drafted by the Red Sox Britton pitched for Summer league team where he called the attention of scouts again to the point of being signed for $700,000 bonus. In the Florida instructional league this fall Britton showed a consistent fastball in the 92 range with very good command and a very good 75 CB, Britton should be pitching in the GCL in 2008.

Cesar Cabral is a 6-3 180 18 yrs Dominican who had a very good season while pitching in the DSL in 2007. Cabral who fastball sits at 90 need to get stronger and should make his US debut in the GCL in 2008.

Michael Rozier who was signed to a million plus contract in 2007 has been disappoitment, specially the last two years, in 2007 while pitching in Lancaster his ERA was close to 8.00 allowing 160 H (20 HR) in 107 IP. There's question about Rozier conditioning which may has led to the drop in velocity of his fastball (87)and lack of command as gave 50 base on balls again in 107 IP. Rozier may go back to Lancaster in 2008, but his destination will be dictated in Spring training.

Israel Perez was the most herald player (only behind Michael Almanzar) signed by the Red Sox in the recently finished 2007 early international player signing period. The 16 yrs Dominican was throwing a high 80 fastball last year as a 15 yrs. Perez more than likely will pitchin the DSL in 2008.

[scaffolds]

Craig Hansen is the organization #7 ranked prospect and the #1 Right handed reliever. Hansen issues are well known, but the kind of arm he has scouts and organizations don't forgette or ignore. Hansen pitched a lot better at the end of the Pawtucket and in the Arizona fall league until the Red Sox brass shut him down recently. The Boston pen is going to have a couple openings for 2008 and Hansen will fill one of them.

Danny Bard is the organization #30 ranked prospect. If Bard remains as a reliever like he has in the Hawaii Winter baseball league he has pass by Bryce Cox as the organization #2 right handed reliever. Bard power stuff including his 95-98 fastball in addition to his breaking pitches is made for short relieve work. Bard has been outstanding in the hawaii league and should be in Lancaster in 2008.

Bryce Cox is the organization #27 ranked prospect.Cox issues like the two pitchers above are well known while pitching in Portland and even in Greenville in 2007. Cox problems wheren't his stuff but the command of his pitches, his low 90's to mid 90 fastball and his slidder are ML pitches, but Cox would need to work in his command and mechanics in Spring training because the organization has shut down him. Cox could start the 2008 season in Lancaster.

Felix Ventura is the organization # 35 ranked prospect. Ventura is listed by the Red Sox as 5'11" but in reality he isn't any taller than 5' 9" and because of his height and arm he has been compared by scouts to Tom Gordon at the same stage, Ventura has a fastball in the 93 area but lacks Gordon's curve ball as his breaking pitches are a work in progress, the 23 yrs Dominican wasn't signed by the Red Sox until he was 21 yrs, very rare for Dominicans, specially for someone with talent like Ventura, but his size didn't interested the scouts. In 2007 Ventura was an All Star while pitching in Lowell and should be Greenville's closer in 2008.

Edgar Martinez is the system #44 ranked prospect. The former catcher took a couple steps back in 2007 in Pawtucket and the issue with Martinez are lack of conditioning his fastball was down in 2007 (91-92 down from 93-94) and his breaking pitches hasn't developed like expected. Martinez is pitching in the Venezuelan Winter league and if taken off the 40 man roster this Fall will be a minor league free agent, which means he may not be with the Red Sox in 2008, if he is he will pitch in Pawtucket again in 2008.

Kyle Jackson is the system #49 ranked prospect, Jackson like Martinez took a couple steps backward in 2007, as he had command issues whie returning to Portland and getting hit more frequent than before, Jackson also like Martinez will be a minor league free agent if taken off the 40 man roster this Fall. If Jackson is in the Red Sox will go back to Portland in 2008.

At the end of 2004 Willy Mota's first year playing in the States (GCL) was ranked by BA as the Red Sox 30th best player as a CF and the Sox outfielder with the best arm, The next two years (2005-2006) where almost waisted as Mota had different quind of health issues and only played in 45 games both years combined. In the fall of 2006 the Sox switched Mota to the mound, after pitching in extend Spring training in 2007 Mota opened the season in Lowell showing a mid 90's fastball and little else, while he had some struggles in the begining and after some hard with Lowell pitching coach Laz Gutierrez Mota was a different pitcher and one of the better relievers in the league by the end of the season, one with a usuable breaking pitch. The 22 yrs Dominican isn't a finished product but one with a lots of potential and should open the 2008 season in Lowell.

Richard Lentz had TJ surgery in 2005 while playing college ball and came back to pitch in college a few weeks before the 2006 draft, while he may not had been fully back the Red Sox drafted him in the 19th round and signed him late in the Summer. Lentz pitched the whole season at Greenville in 2007 (first as pro) showing his mid 90's fastball and while his breaking pitches are a bit behind his fastball he pitched very well in Low A ball until the season where he may had tired out. Lentz may had tire out at the end of the season, but his main issue in 2007 was bases on ball as he issued 42 BB in 49 IP. The bases on ball is some thing that Lentz needs to work on if he's going to have any sucess in 2008 pitching in Lancaster.

Jorge Rodriguez has a fastball in the 93-94 range, but in Greenville in 2007 got hit more often than someone of his kind of stuff should, the reason is that his fastball lacks command and his breaking aren't developed as his fastball, if they develop Rodriguez could project as a starting pitcher. Rodriguez a 22 yrs Colombian has developed physically to a now 205 pounder after being signed by the Red Sox in 2003 as a 147 pounder, Rodriguez should go back to Greenville in 2008.

Kevin Guyett, Michael James, Chad Rhodes and Beau Vaughan have some tools, but there are questions if they enough of them for one day to pitch in the ML. Guyett was a starting pitcher in the Red sox system for his first two season in 2007 was switched to the pen and held his own at Lancaster. Guyett who has a low 90 fastball may have tired towards the end of the season and will pitch in Portland in 2008. James who was Portland closer in 2007 and has a fastball that touches 93, but its fairly straight and his breaking are average the 26 yrs James will pitch in Pawtucket in 2008. Rhodes is only 5-10, but has a mid 95 fastball, however the rest of his pitches are behind his fastball, Rhodes was lancaster's closer in 2007 and pitching in a tough park and league to pitch, he hold his own, in 2008 Rhodes should be pitching in Portland. Vaughan was a starting pitcher in the Sox system his first three years after being signed in the third round of the 2003 draft. The 26 yrs Vaughan has pitched better as a reliever than a starter and in 2007 in Portland had a good season, but his fastball has been inconsistent having being as high as 93 and as low as 87, in 2008 will pitch in Pawtucket.

Chris Province, Eammon Portice, Emilis Guerrero and Mauricio Mendez are right handed reliever with some promise. Province was the Sox fourth round draft pick this June and his fastball touches 97, but because his breaking pitches aren't as good as his fastball he doesn't get as many strikes out as you might expect out of him, Province should pitch in Greenville in 2008. Portice the Sox's 12 Rd pick in 2007 was a starting pitcher in college who projects as a reliever in the pros, Portice who has a fastball around 92 also should be pitching in Greenville in 2008. Guerrero has pitched as a starter and reliever in the Sox system, but the 21 yrs Dominican who's fastball is in the 92 area projects as a reliever. Mendez is a 6-6 200 Dominican who throw from a high 3/4 arm slott and was a starter pitcher his first tow years in the Sox system and has been a reliever the last two years, Mendez who is 22 yrs and Guerrero more than likely will be pitching in Lowell.

Dennis Neuman is first player from Curacao that the Red Sox have signed in the last ten years. Neuman a 5-11 185 18 yrs was the Co Joint closer in the Sox entry in the DSL and was very good on that role in 2007, but the Sox brass may want to see more of him before they bring him to the GCL.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hansen is having surgery for sleep apnea. That is an interesting choice as a palatouvuloplasty is typically not terribly effective, but its worth a shot I guess.

[rician blast]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Hansen is having surgery for sleep apnea. That is an interesting choice as a palatouvuloplasty is typically not terribly effective, but its worth a shot I guess.

Hmmm....I guess this means he doesn't only gag while on MLB mounds, huh?.

[scaffolds]

Starting Right handed pitching is where the Sox expects the most depth from both the 2007 draft and 2007 DSL graduates.

Michael Bowden is the organization #3 prospect and the #1 Right Handed starting pitching (with the graduation of Clay Buchholz to Boston) Bowden was excellent while pitchen in Lancaster and the California league with a 92-94 fastball and above average CB, after his promotion to Portland had his ups and downs, but in general hold his own in AA specially considering his age and will return to Portland in 2008.

Justin Masterson is the organization #5 ranked prospect. Since his college days the scouts have been split if Masterson projects as a starting pitcher or a reliever. the Red Sox believe that he could be a starter and his sinker ball (91-92 fast ball) is the best on the system. Masterson pitched very well in Lancaster in 2007, but not as well as Bowden, but started like a house in fire after his promotion to Portland until he may have tired out at the end of the season, Masterson should return to Portland in 2008.

Miguel Socolovitch is the organization #23 ranked prospect. After having TJ surgery in 2005 Socolovitch and having pitched in 2006 on a limeted basis (GCL) opened the 2007 in the bullpen at Greenville where he struggle before he got demoted to Lowell. In Lowell as a starting pitcher where he showed the potential that he was known for. Socolovitch who's fastball is 93-94 as a satrting pitcher also has a good breaking pitch, but needs to get stronger and throw more strikes and will return to Greenville in 2008.

Brock Huntzinger was unkown coming into the 2007 season pitching out of a H.S. in Indiana, where because of the weather didn't started playing well into the Spring season and just before the 2007 draft the 6-3 200 Huntzinger was showing a steady 92 fastball and very projectable off speed pitches. the Red Sox who drafted Huntzinger in the third round didn't pitched him much in the GCL and send Huntzinger to the instructional league where he opened eyes when hs fastball jumped to a steady 95. In 2008 Huntzinger should be in Extended Spring training before pitching in the GCL or Lowell.

Stolmy Pimentel was the ACE of the Sox's DSL entry as a 17 yrs, The 6-3 186 Dominican has a low 90's fastball and his breaking pitches are developing, in 2008 should be one of the starters for the GCL.

Jordan Craft like Masterson the scouts don't seem to make their mind if he is a starting pitcher or a reliever. The Red Sox believe that he is a starter where his fastball is around 92 where as a reliever touches 95. In 2007 in Greenville as a starter Craft struggle before being demoted to Lowell where he shoed his potential and should send him to Greenville in 2008.

Devern Hansack, David Pauley, Chris Smith, Matt Goodson and Chris Jones may help the Sox to fill a temporary opening or a emergency one but don't have the talent or ceilings as the pitcher posted above. Hansack should be first call if there is a emergency in Boston and has the best stuff out of this group with a fastball 91-92, in addition Hansack could help as a starter or reliever, Hansack should return to Pawtucket to start the 2008 season. Pauley like Hansack have startered games in ML, but with an fastball that tops out at 90 and average breaking pitches his stuff may be short, Pauley should return to Pawtucked for 2008. Smith has the least amount of talent (stuff) among this group where his fastball is 85-86 and the rest of his pitches are OK, Smith could join Hansack and Pauley in Pawtucket in 2008. Goodson and Jones stuff is similar to Pauley. Jones fastball in college was in the 92 range, but injuries have taken away from it, Jones should be in Lancaster and Goodson in Portland for 2008.

Austin Bailey, Randy Consuegra, Yeiper Castillo, Thomas Pressley and Hunter Strickland are young talented right handers who could make a move in 2008. Consuegra is the best of this group as the 18 yrs Colombian was very good in the DSL in 2007 showing a 92 fastball. Bailey a former third baseman was among the top RHP from the H.S. ranks going in to the 2007 season, Bailey who has a low 90 fastball is physically developed, while Bailey is physically developed Castillo at 6-3 160 isn't, but like Bailey throw in the low 90's and the 19 yrs Venezuelan is expected to throw harder as he matures, Castillo had a very good season in 2007 while pitching in the DSL. Pressley and Strickland have very good arms with a fastball above 90, Pressley didn't pitch in the GCL after signed, but Strickland did and had some struggles, all of them should be pitching in the GCL in 2008.

Pedro Perez, Jimmy James, Adan Mills, Charles New, Ryan Colvin and Joseph Guerra are right handers with some talents and with some questions. Perez is a 19 yrs Domincan who at 6-4 170 isn't fully developed so which his sinker which at the present is at 91 may throw harder in the future. Perez was the Sox best starting pitcher in the GCL in 2007 and has a very good command, but doesn't strike out as many as he should will be in lowell in 2008. Mills was one of the better starting pitches in the country in 2007, but because his fastball tops out at 90 wasn't drafted until the 8th round. Mills didn't pitch much in 2007 after he was signed, but should be one of Greenville's starter in 2008. James didn't pitch much in 2005 and missed all of 2006 after shoulder surgery. The 23 yrs Venezuelan returned to pitching in Lowell in 2007 earning a promotion to Greenville after 4 games and its pitching in Hawaiin league this fall. James whose fastball tops out at 93 may pit in Lancaster in 2008. Charles New was signed as a draft and follow after being drafted in the 27th round in 2006. New who's fast ball touches 94 but is inconsistent and didn't pitch much after he signed will pitch in Greenville in 2008. Colvin is a draft and follow from the 2005 draft who was signed before to 2006 draft. Colvin if fairly new to pitching and its very raw, his fastball touches 92, but is inconsistent, Covin should pitin Lowell in 2008. Guerra is a pitch ability right hander with a fastball in the 89-90 range, Guerra's main ability is to throw strikes.

Caleb Clay, Pedro Rodriguez, Anthony Alvarado, Anataner Batista, Leandro Marin and Wang-Yi Lin are the health for 2008. Clay had TJ surgery after starting 5 games in Lowell isn't likely that his will pitch in 2008, the same for Lin who had TJ shortly before and even Rodriguez a 20 yrs Venezuelan who had his TJ surgery in Extended Spring training. Batista an 18 yrs Dominican was having an outstanding season in the DSL when he went down for the year. Alvarado a 6-1 175 17 yrs Venezuelan who came to Spring training as a highly regarded prospect 16 yrs without having pitched in the DSL. Alvarado and Batista status for 2008 aren't clear, but one who is is Marin a 19 yrs Venezuelan who had TJ in 2006 and came back at the end of the 2007 DSL (pitched in three games) and was impressive in the instructional league, Marin should pitch in the GCL in 2008.

Charlie Rosario put good numbers in the DSL his first year as a pro, but it looks like the the 19 yrs Dominican will return to the DSL in 2008. A new name that the scouts are talking about is 16 yrs Dominican Roman Mendez. Mendez will pitch in the DSL in 2008.

[jacksonianmarch]

which guys from the 07 draft are they relying on to be good right handed pitching prospects? They lost one that they couldnt sign and the rest look to either be long range HS kids or short arsenal college kids most suited for relief duty.

[scaffolds]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

which guys from the 07 draft are they relying on to be good right handed pitching prospects? They lost one that they couldnt sign and the rest look to either be long range HS kids or short arsenal college kids most suited for relief duty.

Brock Huntzinger and Austin Bailey have very good potential, there are scouts that like Thomas Pressley and Hunter Strickland, in addition the jury is out on Adam Mills. I will talk more about it in the RHP thread.

[RobZombie]

"With Boston having some production issues at first base, i wouldn't be surprised if Carter makes the ML team in 2008."

Its quotes like this that lead people to believe that you aren't really who you claim to be and that you don't work in baseball. The Red Sox DO NOT have production issues at 1st base. Chris Carter IS NOT going to replace Kevin Youkilis at 1B.

Carter's main problem is that though he can hit, he's basically a DH.

[riverside sluggers]

He wont replace Youkilis, but he has a good shot at any to take over as the new backup

[RobZombie]

Originally Posted by riverside sluggers

He wont replace Youkilis, but he has a good shot at any to take over as the new backup

The problem with that is that for any guy going to be a bench player and spell Youkilis from time to time, he's got to be able to play defense. From everything that I've read, Carter is an awful defensive 1B.

Carter is basically a poor man's Jack Cust. So bad defensively that you really can't play him anywhere but DH and not a good enough hitter to make you overlook this problem.

I think they will put him in AAA and try to work on his defense so that it is at least acceptable.

[scaffolds]

In conclusion all of this posts shows how important scouting and player development is the future of an organization.

[RobZombie]

Originally Posted by scaffolds

In conclusion all of this posts shows how important scouting and player development is the future of an organization.

Making an obvious statement doesn't make you smart. Its like telling me that rich people
have a lot of money as if you have found a great social equalizer. Its no better than making a statement that is obviously wrong, like saying that the Sox have "production problems" at 1st base when they do not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, it all depends on how you can spin it. Youkilis pre AS break was an elite 1b in the AL. He had a .921OPS and was hitting .320+. But he faded down the stretch to the tune of a .230BA and a .720OPS. He also had a few wear and tear injuries that limited his effectiveness. If it wasnt for a total renaissance in the playoffs, people would be clamoring for an upgrade. It isnt wrong on scaffolds part to think you can upgrade production wise over a non-power 1b. On the flip side, Youkilis is a walk machine who is probably the best fielding 1b in the AL and has the versatility to be used as a 3b if need be. If you want to nitpick, you can, but Youkilis is a solid 1b, the kind that make championship teams run. You dont get rid of that.

My insistence on Carter, though, is more of a wear and tear issue. Lets assume Lowell resigns. You have Big Papi at DH who has worn down this yr. He is in his early 30s, is easily 260-270lbs and plays every day. That last part need to change. Instead of Papi playing 150 games (which he has averaged over the past 3 yrs), maybe they should focus on him getting 135 or so to limit wear and tear. So that is 27 games right there.

Lowell will be 34 at the beginning of next season, and has proven durable. But, once again, wear and tear will be an issue. Instead of 150+ like he always plays, maybe 135-140. Theres another 22 games right there.

Then Youkilis. He's still young, but also showed that he wears down as the season goes on (check his last 3 yr stats, he has a .240BA post AS). More rest for him means fresher legs.

All of that combined could get Carter into the lineup 60-80 times next yr which should be enough to show what he can do.

Papi out? Carter DH
Youk out? Carter 1b
Lowell out? Youk to 3rd, Carter to 1st.

And if he sucks, then no harm, no foul. If he doesnt? Then you add another lefty power bat with solid discipline to your mix.