Oswalt, Sox?

[bosoxnation07]

This is nothing concrete, but theres been little in the rumor mill and I thought this was interesting atleast...

Astros Oswalt to Red Sox, Cards or Braves?

In light of recent national speculation about his future with the Astros, ace righthander Roy Oswalt reiterated he would consider accepting a trade but only if the club asked him. Moreover, he clearly stated he's not frustrated with the team. For the second consecutive day, Oswalt was asked about the trade rumors that have been circulating through East Coast media."I don't know where (the media) got that from, left field somewhere," he said. Oswalt is adamant the Astros have never asked if he would consider waiving his no-trade clause. "They haven't yet. No," he said. Although Oswalt has not publicly said which teams he'd consider, people close to him say he wouldn't want to pitch in the New York market and that he'd only consider the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. It's also considered likely that � as is his right � Oswalt would also renegotiate his contract with the team that wants him before accepting a deal.

[bosoxnation07]

I think this deal would cost the Sox, Masterson/Lowrie/Moss +1 more pitching prospect, that said, Throw in the fact that theres no way they trade him to St. Louis, and probably would rather not trade him to ATL. Trading him to Boston would put him in the American league, and they would probably never have to face him, maybe in inter league every few years.

Beckett
Oswalt
Dice-K
Lester
Buchholz

For the next few season, ummmm yes please

[Coco's Disciples]

No thanks.

[Thumper]

Not so sure about giving up Masterson. He did well in his first start, and I think we should take the course of "home growing" it's obviously worked for the Yankees in the past decade with the exception of a few players, I'd like to see how Masterson turns out here.

[das11209]

I will give up on Masterson and Moss in a heartbeat. Not sure about Masterson + Lowrie.

[schillingouttheks]

Meh. I don't know. It seems like Oswalt falls off the face of the planet more and more every season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Small framed power pitcher now over 30. Remind you of anyone?

Plus, last yr he had his second highest career ERA, his lowest K/9, his highest BB/9 and H/9. Put him in the ALE and he'd be a 4+ERA pitcher and declining.

[Soxfan#1]

I think Drayton McLane recently said in an interview that he ain't going anywhere. I read something like that on MLBTR

[Jayhawk Bill]

How does one evaluate a trade?

When I do it, I look at two things:

1) Just the talent flowing both ways must be about even for a blockbuster trade. Fans won't tolerate losing a superstar unless they see equivalent talent coming back in return, although that talent can be split into 2-3 players who will all make the team and contribute.

2) The multi-year value of the talent, less the price of the talent, most be roughly equal over the periods of obligated service for the respective players.

Those two aspects seem incompatible for Oswalt. Oswalt is guaranteed $60 million from 2008-2011, counting his buyout. Right now his VORP for 2008 is negative 1.8 runs, suggesting that he's pitching at roughly the AAA level this month. OK, such things happen. But looking at his pre-season predictions, PECOTA suggests that he'd only be worth $44 million over the next four years, suggesting a negative trade value. As good as Oswalt is, he's not worth his contract.

Boston is rich enough to take a few superstars for more than their fair market value--it's tough to contend in MLB if you don't overpay a few critical acquisitions. Boston may have done that with Mike Lowell last winter, just as New York may have done that with Posada. Oswalt may be valuable, even if overpaid. But giving away a package of talent such as Masterson, Lowrie and Moss for Oswalt is the stuff disasters are made of...and giving Houston much less isn't necessarily viable because Houston couldn't explain the move to their fans.

Accordingly, I don't see a deal for Boston here.

[bosoxnation07]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

How does one evaluate a trade?

When I do it, I look at two things:

1) Just the talent flowing both ways must be about even for a blockbuster trade. Fans won't tolerate losing a superstar unless they see equivalent talent coming back in return, although that talent can be split into 2-3 players who will all make the team and contribute.

2) The multi-year value of the talent, less the price of the talent, most be roughly equal over the periods of obligated service for the respective players.

Those two aspects seem incompatible for Oswalt. Oswalt is guaranteed $60 million from 2008-2011, counting his buyout. Right now his VORP for 2008 is negative 1.8 runs, suggesting that he's pitching at roughly the AAA level this month. OK, such things happen. But looking at his pre-season predictions, PECOTA suggests that he'd only be worth $44 million over the next four years, suggesting a negative trade value. As good as Oswalt is, he's not worth his contract.

Boston is rich enough to take a few superstars for more than their fair market value--it's tough to contend in MLB if you don't overpay a few critical acquisitions. Boston may have done that with Mike Lowell last winter, just as New York may have done that with Posada. Oswalt may be valuable, even if overpaid. But giving away a package of talent such as Masterson, Lowrie and Moss for Oswalt is the stuff disasters are made of...and giving Houston much less isn't necessarily viable because Houston couldn't explain the move to their fans.

Accordingly, I don't see a deal for Boston here.

Well my 2nd post with what I would trade might have been a little over the top. Kind of a knee jerk reaction.

Its going to take a top pitching prospect, plus others depending on what the Sox have to eat on the contract. But mcclain has been known for killing trades, so I won't hold my breath. I just threw it out here for discussion cause all seems quiet at the moment.

Another tid bit, from the Globe, Nick C. says that 2 GM's have contacted the Sox about the availability of Moss. Wonder what we could get for him.....?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

Well my 2nd post with what I would trade might have been a little over the top. Kind of a knee jerk reaction.

No...it's what Astros fans (and many Red Sox fans) would see as fair.

Salaries are almost always forgotten by fans, and occasionally forgotten by GMs, when evaluating trades.

[Cityofchampions33]

I'll pass, then again I wouldn't kill anyone if we got him. Only reason he had a dip last year was because of a command loss first half of the season, but nonetheless I still see some decline ERA-wise, which as stated by some will not be helped entering the ALE.

[bosoxnation07]

If he could eat innings and give a 4 ERA, I'd take it.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

If he could eat innings and give a 4 ERA, I'd take it.

Arbitrarily defining "eat innings" as pitching 162 or more innings over a complete season, only 21 AL pitchers did that and posted an ERA of 4.00 or less in 2007. Only 13 did it in 2006; only 21 did it in 2005; only 10 did it in 2004.

Setting a 25 IP qualifying limit and VORP as the metric, Oswalt is currently the 52nd-best pitcher in the NL. Last season he was much better, of course, but last season the Astros didn't want to trade him, either.

I'm not certain that Oswalt could post an ERA of 4.00 or better in the AL East.

[Mr Crunchy]

i wouldve loved him here in 05 but after seeing him throw far too many 2-1 losses over the last few years i fear hes hit the wall and on the downside
plus hes inked till 2011?
fugget it