Really the only question is Price.Originally Posted by mvp 78
ERod is out for a while. Porcello probably is a 3-4 starter. Pomeranz was equally good in 2016 as he was in 2017.
And none of these guys is as big of a question mark as Cueto. ..
Really the only question is Price.
ERod is out for a while. Porcello probably is a 3-4 starter. Pomeranz was equally good in 2016 as he was in 2017.
And none of these guys is as big of a question mark as Cueto. ..
i think Price is going to be really solid next season.
i also think cueto would thrive in the Boston environment.
but i also believe that players can raise (and lower) their efforts/abilities/desire/focus based on the situation they are in......
other names i have posted under: none
They were talking about trading Stanton plus one or two from Gordon or Prado. If that's the case, then they can pay part of Stanton's deal, but I doubt it will be much.
I think the fact that the Sox can pay his full salary and the luxury tax is "just" $25M gives us a leg up on many teams with better prospects to trade.
I think he already announced he's not opting out.
I don't think 2017 is all we should look sat with Cueto, but certainly, it's concerning.
Just throwing something out here...
Trade:
HRam (18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option) $22M luxury tax hit
Porcello (18:$21M, 19:$21M) $20.6M luxury tax hit
Chavis (prospect)
JBJ ($5.9M arb projection with 2 more to go after 2018)
Total 2018 luxury tax hit: $48.5M
For:
Felix Hernandez (18:$26M, 19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option) $25M luxury tax hit
Nelson Cruz (18:$14M) $143.M luxury tax hit
Total Luxury Tax Hit: $39M
We gain $9.5M on our 2018 spending budget and get our clean-up hitter.
Seattle gets 3 years of JBJ and a cheaper SP'er in Porcello over Felix. They also get a power-hitting prospect. The drop off from Cruz to HRam might be the deal buster, so I guess it depends on how much they like JBJ at arb salary rates.
We could use the money to go out and sign JD to DH or trade for Stanton to DH PLUS sign Santana or Moose to solve the 1B issue.
1. Bogey SS
2. Betts RF
3. Martinez LF/DH
4. Cruz DH/LF
5. Beni CF
6. Santana 1B
7. Devers 3B
8. Pedey 2B
9. Vaz C
(I'llk wait for harmony to shoot me down hard.)
Projected arb salaries:
Joe Kelly – $3.6MM
Drew Pomeranz – $9.1MM
Tyler Thornburg – $2.1MM
Brock Holt – $2.0MM
Xander Bogaerts – $7.6MM
Jackie Bradley – $5.9MM
Sandy Leon – $2.1MM
Steven Wright – $1.2MM
Mookie Betts – $8.2MM
Brandon Workman – $900K
Christian Vazquez – $1.5MM
Carson Smith – $1.1MM
Eduardo Rodriguez – $2.7MM
Holt got 1.95 this past year, I think he'll get more than that.
I'm not sure. He had a .548 OPS and missed a lot of time.
I get the fact that the next arb year means an auto raise, but if ever there was a player that did not deserve one based on previous year performance, it would be Brock.
I'm thinking at $2M, we might want to trade him, but with Pedey out and no 4th OF'er at the moment, I'd hold off.
I think they go one-year at a time with Bradley and Rodriguez ... try to get a 6 year extension for a reasonable amount ($150M would be reasonable) for Betts ... Bogaerts season (and how much of it was injury related) almost forces the Red Sox to just make a deal for next year.
Explore a short pre-arb extension with Pomeranz although I am not that moved either direction
One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax.
It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.
That's an interesting proposal but I doubt the Mariners will trade their two most popular players.
Granted, the Felix Hernandez contract is underwater with $53 million remaining over two years after the 31-year-old righthander posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.3 million, over the last two seasons. Seattle fans can pray for a Verlander-type renaissance but Steamer projects Hernandez with a modest 2018 WAR of 2.0 in 28 starts. Justin Verlander, who is three years older and who now has more MLB innings, has been a convenient comp since the righthanders signed similar same-duration extensions within weeks of each other in 2010 and again in 2013.
The Seattle front office hopes to reward the iconic Hernandez for his loyalty with a postseason appearance by the Mariners. But this is the same franchise that traded away Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro and Randy Johnson.
Only Nelson Cruz rivals Hernandez for a presence in the Seattle clubhouse.
In the final months of 2014, Seattle signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract while Boston signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. In the ensuing three seasons Cruz has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, while Ramirez has posted 0.6 fWAR, valued at $3.3 million. Streamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Cruz and 1.0 for Ramirez.
Indeed the drop-off would be among the deal-breakers.
The window may be closing for Seattle so Cruz will likely remain a Mariner in 2018. The M's may well have an interest in Jackie Bradley Jr. (and even Rick Porcello) but not at that price.
I've probably written too much already.
Last edited by harmony; 11-10-2017 at 04:10 PM.
They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.That's an interesting proposal but I doubt the Mariners will trade their two most popular players.
Granted, the Felix Hernandez contract is underwater with $53 million remaining over two years after the 31-year-old righthander posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.3 million, over the last two seasons. Seattle fans can pray for a Verlander-type renaissance but Steamer projects Hernandez with a modest 2018 WAR of 2.0 in 28 starts. Justin Verlander, who is three years older and who now has more MLB innings, has been a convenient comp since the righthanders signed similar extensions within weeks of each other in 2010 and 2013.
The Seattle front office hopes to reward the iconic Hernandez for his loyalty with a postseason appearance by the Mariners. But this is the same franchise that traded away Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro and Randy Johnson.
Only Nelson Cruz rivals Hernandez for a presence in the Seattle clubhouse.
In the final months of 2014, Seattle signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract while Boston signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. In the ensuing three seasons Cruz has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, while Ramirez has posted 0.6 fWAR, valued at $3.3 million. Streamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Cruz and 1.0 for Ramirez.
Indeed the drop-off would be among the deal-breakers.
The window may be closing for Seattle so Cruz will likely remain a Mariner in 2018. The M's may well have an interest in Jackie Bradley Jr. (and even Rick Porcello) but not at that price.
I've probably written too much already.
I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.
I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.
I don't have any idea how they will work out the particulars, but I will be very surprised if the hard play isn't for Martinez. Just read Bradford's article and sounds to me as though he would be just what the doctor ordered. Sign him and then figure out what to do with him as well as the others. I am not sold at all on Benintendi moving to center and trading Bradley but who knows. You want good people in that dugout. After what happened last year, we need real people who actually get it in there.
I doubt the Mariners have any interest in Michael Chavis, a 22-year-old fringe prospect with a 25.3 % strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in a minor league career that has yet to reach Triple A. In July the Mariners traded away their same-age, strikeout-prone, righthand-hitting slugger in outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, who is ranked higher than Chavis on the MLB.com prospect list:
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
Last edited by harmony; 11-10-2017 at 01:13 PM.
They are saying HRam will be good to go at 1B, so JD could DH and be our 4th OF'er. It's actually a nice fit, as long as HRam can play 1B.
I still might give JD some reps at 1B- just in case. He might also play there in NL parks, so we don't have to sit an OF'er.
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