When it comes to players as extremely talented as Brandon Webb, there is always the temptation to deny all logic and reason and give him a 1/1 contract.Originally Posted by a700hitter
When it comes to players as extremely talented as Brandon Webb, there is always the temptation to deny all logic and reason and give him a 1/1 contract.
As a depth option, I would agree, but not as part of Plan A.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
I guess that today was a travel day for the GM's. The Winter meetings start tomorrow. Hopefully, there will be lots of moves to make things interesting.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
I don't think Hamilton will get 7. In the first place there are not that many teams that can even afford him. I just don't think there are enough teams out there in the running to drive him to 7 years. I suspect the teams with money are making an effort to cut into these screwy long term deals. We shall see.
Even with his talent, I'd only want to sign a guy like Webb if he's part of the "deep depth" that LL and BC keep referring to (ie, the depth options for the depth pitchers). Webb hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009, when he was 30 years old (he would be 34 in May of 2013). He had TJ surgery in 2010 and then was signed by the Rangers as a "depth" option for 2011, only to not sniff the majors at all.
As we've seen over the past couple of seasons, this team doesn't currently have the talent nor the health to afford the "dumpster diving" options they've looked to in the past for slots 4-5, let alone the 6-7 depth options that always find their way into the 1-5 slots at some point. Webb is certainly one name among many, and represents a reasonable gamble, but only for an 8-10 option going into ST. He would have to prove he was healthy AND capable of getting hitters out to be considered for a spot starter/long to middle relief bullpen type of role. In Webb's case, his injury history, age, and time away from the game, he can't be relied on for 100+ innings demanded from the typical starter.
I believe Hamilton might be lucky to fend off rumors and concerns to get a much lower than expected contract.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/10...#storylink=cpy
Then there's the ongoing roster decisions.
No, Josh Hamilton is no longer a decision.
Asked this week if there was any chance of re-signing Hamilton, one club official said, "not even if he wants to play here for free next season."
Even so, it'd be best to wait it out. Let every one cool down over the pop-up in Oakland, the verbal dust-up with Washington in the dugout following the pop-up, and now the pathetic, disinterested 0 for 4 Friday night, then see what the free-agency money will bring for Hamilton.
Never say never on a great-but-weird talent.
However, even the fans, usually very generous with the players, had had enough of Ham on Friday night. The only loud boos for a team that deserved plenty of them were reserved for Josh after another strikeout to end the eighth inning.
Josh had four at-bats, three with runners on, and saw eight pitches total. He struck out twice on three pitches, and rolled into a double play and grounded out while swinging at the first pitch. No clue. No hope at the plate.
But if Hamilton has worn out his welcome here, then the Rangers will have to add wood in the off-season to replace the Josh numbers, which are still huge.
"As long as the general population is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful can do as they please, and those who survive will be left to contemplate the outcome." - Noam Chomsky
I think the Red Sox are after Hamilton and they'll go up to 5 years to get him. The question is whether he wants to stay in Texas for less. For all the puritanical talk about Hamilton's personal issues, the guy to my knowledge has never missed any playing time in Texas because of them.
I think its highly doubtful that Hamilton will return with the Rangers. By all accounts, he was not the most respected player in the clubhouse and had his share of inconsistency on the field, as documented by many of the reports that came out the days after their season ended. But streaky is certainly who he is - the downward spiral he had at the end of 2012 was the polar opposite he had from about June 1 of 2010 to the end of the season. I remember going to a game that year in June and seeing his stat line at around a .240 average and .320 OBP. He finished the year batting .359 with a .411 OBP.
He's always been streaky - for good or bad. When things went badly for him this year, the Ranger fans really turned on him, even more so than they did to CJ Wilson at the end of last season. In a nutshell, Hamilton is a unanimous MVP when he is at his best, and a AAAA level player when he's at his worst. For me, that's too much variability to succeed in a baseball town like Boston, which is similarly the baseball mecca when things are going well, and what we witnessed the last calendar year when things aren't going well. Even with the protected 1st round pick, I'd be hesitant to pursue Hamilton, even if its for 3-4 years.
I would be willing to bet Hamilton may well grind on players after awhile...one reason i would not want him on a longer than 4-5 year deal. As for the fans of the Rangers, I would bet that they are looking for scapegoats all over the place. They have had a couple years now when they Rangers have seemed to be the team to beat and have not gotten it done. Boy I would love to see those same fans suffer through what we went through or what the poor Cubies still go through.
I wouldn't go so far to say that I'd like to see them suffer through things like generations of Sox fans did and generations of Cubs fans still are. After all, their team is still one of the few that have yet to win a world series. But for the vast majority of Ranger fans, a year round commitment to following baseball was unheard of until a couple of years ago (and arguably, was helped by the Cowboys prolonged demise). It will be interesting to see how much attention and commitment will remain if the post Hamilton/Wilson teams don't share the same type of success.
That being said, I still don't feel comfortable committing to Hamilton. He certainly will be tagged as a scapegoat by media and fans alike in Boston if he ends a season like he did this year and the Sox aren't the last team standing. We all certainly remember how he started the 2012 season. By the end of May, many critics were ready to anoint him the MVP of the AL. Sadly, if you look at his track record, he's consistently inconsistent (only his high points drastically overshadow his low points and paint extraordinary expectations for his future performance).
Perhaps a contributor to this notion could be his splits against the lower tier of pitching and the upper tier of pitching. I believe I saw on Clubhouse Confidential (a baseball analytics show that airs on MLB Network) last week that Hamilton had the highest difference in stats when he faced the lower tier "dumpster diving" level of pitchers compared to when he faced the upper tier (Verlander, Hernandez "aces" and most team's number 1's and 2's). Supposedly, the sample was over a 3 year time period, which seems to be enough PA to suggest some sort of reliable conclusion.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...mes-loney.html
No big surprise here, but another 1B option appears to be off the FA market. That being said, wasn't very impressed with Loney in his brief time in Boston.
Definitely hoping they sign Napoli to a 3 year $36 M range deal. Don't have to give up a draft pick and 1B vacancy is filled. Also gain a spot catcher, fill in DH, and RH power perfectly fit for Fenway.
I don't think anyone gives him 7. I think he gets 5 with an option.
And I also think the Sox have the $$ to spend on Hamilton (5/120-125) and Napoli (3/33), and still give Haren a deal as well.
I'm not sold on Marcum, I don't like soft tossers, but I would be interested in seeing if the Cubs would bite on a deal for Garza involving Salty.
Here's my breakdown:
Hamilton: $25mm AAV
Napoli: $11mm AAV
Haren: $13.5mm AAV
Garza: $12mm AAV
Salty: ($2.5mm AAV, 2012 numbers)
Brian Wilson: 1 Year/$7mm
Total: $66mm added
Total Payroll: $155-$160mm
Consider Haren and Garza will both be off the books next year, and will be replaced by Webster and De La Rosa. Ellsbury will likely be gone, replaced by Bradley Jr. That's about $35mm off the books alone right there, and they'll easily be able to stay under the lux tax.
As far as spending money paths go it looks pretty good. They would have considerable money coming off the books next year, followed by Lester, Ortiz, Gomes, Ross. So the move would not hurt roster flexibility going forward either. As long as they don't give up anyone important to get Garza, I can't really find any reason to argue your proposal.
edit: Salty+Cecchini+Workman for Garza? I'm not a huge Garza fan but I wouldn't be upset over a package built similar to that to acquire him.
You could probably get Garza for just Cecchini + Workman to be honest. Maybe even just Cecchini, considering Garza didn't pitch since July 21, and he had a tough year outside of that.
Maybe Salty would be a better fit for a team that needs a C and is trying to win now, like the Mets for Niese, or to the ChiSox for Floyd (both would have to include more than just Salty).
The Sox certainly have flexibility. If they can sign Haren, they can make one of those 3 moves and have a solid rotation going into 2013, and a very solid lineup.
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
LF Hamilton
1B/3B Napoli/Middlebooks
DH Ortiz
3B/1B Middlebrooks/Napoli
RF Kalish/Gomes(gomes would be in LF, Hamilton in RF)
C Ross/Lavs
SS Iggy
Lester
Garza
Buchholz
Haren
Doubront
It be an interesting team. That said, it's a lot to pull off.
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