A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

I'm a big fan of March Madness, so I will be entertained for the next few weeks with that alone.

As am I. Ditto Div I NCAA basketball. Not the NBA and, really, not the NFL (except for the occasional Patriots game). In sheer minutes of watching, the Sox with 162 games a season (plus playoffs) is an addiction.

[Kimmi]

I am not a fan of March Madness, but I had the Olympics to keep me occupied for the past two weeks. I developed a whole new enjoyment and appreciation for the cross country skiing events, in particular, the biathlon.

I've always been intrigued by curling. I still don't understand all the strategies in the game, but the math and physics involved is inspiring. John Shuster, skipper of the US team, is my new hero.

And the figure skating. 'Nuff said.

Yes, I know I have strange tastes.

[moonslav59]

Win the Division

Sale, Price, Pom/Porcello/E Rod.

Solid lineup with Betts, Beni, JD, Hanley, Devers, Xander, Pedey, Vazquez and JBJ.

Solid pen with Kimbrel, Smith and cast of thousand.

Pitching still the key.

At some point, we'll need to re-set the luxury tax payroll. Winning in 2018 would certainly go long way in bringing our finances in order. It will give us another year for our farm to 'mature'. It's not too much to expect
one rookie on the 25 man roster each year.

2014 Xander/JBJ/Vazquez
2015 Betts/E Rod
2016 Shaw (traded)
2017 Beni
2018 Devers

I don't see the same type future rookie value level, but there's chances of surprises. For example, Betts was drafted 172nd in 2011 and only reached number 10 in the soxprospects rankings by the fall of 2013. I doubt we have someone like Betts hiding in the system, but who knows. We've become accustomed to not believing in any of our starting pitcher prospects after dud after dud.

Here's my look at possible prospect arrival times...

2018: Devers, Travis, Beeks

2019: Chavis, Ockimey, Shawaryn, D Hernandez, Chatham, Thompson

2020: Groome, Houck, Brannen, Scherff

2021-2022: Mata, D Diaz

[moonslav59]

Is there any MLB team out there that does not have a 25 man roster crunch and could use 2 of our out-of-options players?

In theory, I'd like to make a 2 or 3 for one trade for a decent 5/6th starter or a better LH'd RP'er than we have. My idea would look something like this:

Trade:
Johnson, Marrero and Travis
For:
A better SP'er than Johnson

Or,

Trade:
Hembree, Marrero and Ockimey (Beeks?)
For:
A LH'd RP'er (or 5/6 starter)

Or, we could just trade one out-of-options player for a player with options or a prospect.

[Nick]

I don't see the same type future rookie value level, but there's chances of surprises. For example, Betts was drafted 172nd in 2011 and only reached number 10 in the soxprospects rankings by the fall of 2013. I doubt we have someone like Betts hiding in the system, but who knows. We've become accustomed to not believing in any of our starting pitcher prospects after dud after dud.

Here's my look at possible prospect arrival times...

2018: Devers, Travis, Beeks

2019: Chavis, Ockimey, Shawaryn, D Hernandez, Chatham, Thompson

2020: Groome, Houck, Brannen, Scherff

2021-2022: Mata, D Diaz

Current luxury tax payroll of $230M, next year's luxury tax limit at $206M, thus we can spend up to $246M before the second penalty phase kicks in. Moon has current arbitration eligible players at payroll of $37M. Even by most conservative estimates, I think it will get a 50% raise, or say $20M for easy numbers. Now we're up to luxury tax payroll of $250M, exceeding the $246M second tier penalty.

$230M includes Kimbrel's $13M and Pom's $8.5M, Kelly's $3.8M. This is why I've proposed making sure Hanley's 2019 payroll not vest (if we can win it all with 400 at bats from him) and possibly trade Porcello so we can re sign Pom (that's assuming we agree that Pom has better future than Porcello, otherwise keep Porcello and offer Pom a qualifying offer). Two big contracts need to come off the books if we want to keep Pom and keep in tact all of our arbitration eligible players.

[moonslav59]

Current luxury tax payroll of $230M, next year's luxury tax limit at $206M, thus we can spend up to $246M before the second penalty phase kicks in. Moon has current arbitration eligible players at payroll of $37M. Even by most conservative estimates, I think it will get a 50% raise, or say $20M for easy numbers. Now we're up to luxury tax payroll of $250M, exceeding the $246M second tier penalty.

$230M includes Kimbrel's $13M and Pom's $8.5M, Kelly's $3.8M. This is why I've proposed making sure Hanley's 2019 payroll not vest (if we can win it all with 400 at bats from him) and possibly trade Porcello so we can re sign Pom (that's assuming we agree that Pom has better future than Porcello, otherwise keep Porcello and offer Pom a qualifying offer). Two big contracts need to come off the books if we want to keep Pom and keep in tact all of our arbitration eligible players.

I agree in making sure HRam's contract does not vest.

We could trade or DFA Holt ($2M+) and one from Leon & Swihart ($2M+).

We might get by without replacing Kimbrel and Kelly, but we'll probably need to acquire one good RP'er (via trade, if we're looking to save money).

We will need to replace Pom, if we want to stay highly competitive, assuming a drop off at closer.

Remember, the tax goes up for being 2 years over the limit, so we may not try to go just below the $40M over mark. We may try to just go over by $20-30M. That would create serious budget issues and would probably mean we trade Porcello, JBJ or Bogey.

We'll know more after this season about guys like Wright, ERod, Nunez, Devers, and maybe we unload some salary, if we trust an in-house replacement.

I do not think we have an in-house replacement for POM. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel, but Thornburg only has 2 years of team control left.

[Nick]

I agree in making sure HRam's contract does not vest.

We could trade or DFA Holt ($2M+) and one from Leon & Swihart ($2M+).

We might get by without replacing Kimbrel and Kelly, but we'll probably need to acquire one good RP'er (via trade, if we're looking to save money).

We will need to replace Pom, if we want to stay highly competitive, assuming a drop off at closer.

Remember, the tax goes up for being 2 years over the limit, so we may not try to go just below the $40M over mark. We may try to just go over by $20-30M. That would create serious budget issues and would probably mean we trade Porcello, JBJ or Bogey.

We'll know more after this season about guys like Wright, ERod, Nunez, Devers, and maybe we unload some salary, if we trust an in-house replacement.

I do not think we have an in-house replacement for POM. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel, but Thornburg only has 2 years of team control left.

This is why when someone says to go sign a starting pitching depth I just chuckle. If I'm a betting man, I doubt we go past the secondary penalty phase. Now if you say to sign so and so and get rid of so and so, then I'll take it seriously. Throwing out random acquisition ideas without knowing the consequences is just fantasy baseball.

We have painted our selves into a corner. Our potential moves are easy to read with our payroll.

ps it's not a bad thing, we think we can win it all with our line up.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not a fan of March Madness, but I had the Olympics to keep me occupied for the past two weeks. I developed a whole new enjoyment and appreciation for the cross country skiing events, in particular, the biathlon.

I've always been intrigued by curling. I still don't understand all the strategies in the game, but the math and physics involved is inspiring. John Shuster, skipper of the US team, is my new hero.

And the figure skating. 'Nuff said.

Yes, I know I have strange tastes.

I will no longer watch US college sports if I can help it. It's a completely corrupt enterprise.

[moonslav59]

This is why when someone says to go sign a starting pitching depth I just chuckle. If I'm a betting man, I doubt we go past the secondary penalty phase. Now if you say to sign so and so and get rid of so and so, then I'll take it seriously. Throwing out random acquisition ideas without knowing the consequences is just fantasy baseball.

We have painted our selves into a corner. Our potential moves are easy to read with our payroll.

ps it's not a bad thing, we think we can win it all with our line up.

One possible move could be to trade JBJ and add his salary to the $4M and get a very good SP'er in return.

I do NOT want to trade JBJ, but if we need pitching, it is an option.

I think we need great OF defense to make up for our weak IF defense, so I want to keep JBJ, but we lose very little on offense by trading him, assuming HRam is hitting well.

We basically use Nunez or Pedey and Moreland to take JBJ's offensive slot in the order.

JDM moves to LF. Beni plays CF,a nd Betts stays in RF.

HRam DHs vs RHPs and plays 1B vs LHPs.

Moreland plays 1B vs RHPs, and Nunez DHs vs LHPs (once Pedey returns). Pedey rests vs some RHPs, which gives Nunes more PAs. Nunez also plays LF when JD DHs (keeping HRam from vesting).

[SoxnCycles]

I will no longer watch US college sports if I can help it. It's a completely corrupt enterprise.

Ain't that the truth.

[Nick]

One possible move could be to trade JBJ and add his salary to the $4M and get a very good SP'er in return.

I do NOT want to trade JBJ, but if we need pitching, it is an option.

I think we need great OF defense to make up for our weak IF defense, so I want to keep JBJ, but we lose very little on offense by trading him, assuming HRam is hitting well.

We basically use Nunez or Pedey and Moreland to take JBJ's offensive slot in the order.

JDM moves to LF. Beni plays CF,a nd Betts stays in RF.

HRam DHs vs RHPs and plays 1B vs LHPs.

Moreland plays 1B vs RHPs, and Nunez DHs vs LHPs (once Pedey returns). Pedey rests vs some RHPs, which gives Nunes more PAs. Nunez also plays LF when JD DHs (keeping HRam from vesting).

If one of starter goes down, that's a distinct possibility. Throw in a prospect or two and we may get a pretty good pitcher in return.

I THINK WE ARE ALL IN FOR 2018 AND 2019.

[moonslav59]

If one of starter goes down, that's a distinct possibility. Throw in a prospect or two and we may get a pretty good pitcher in return.

I THINK WE ARE ALL IN FOR 2018 AND 2019.

If we don't win it all in the next two years, I think Henry extends the spending (and high tax) window one more year, then we re-set the tax.

[Nick]

I will no longer watch US college sports if I can help it. It's a completely corrupt enterprise.

Answer to corruption in college basketball according to talking heads is to pay the athletes.

Are they really THAT DUMB?

If you pay the 'students-athletes' living wages, no one thinks that someone out there won't offer MORE money to entice a player to come?

And what are they really saying? Obviously they think college education has NO VALUE to them. These morons don't realize how expensive it is to attend Duke, just as an example?

What about title IX issues and non revenue sports? No one thinks that someone will challenge the policy of only football and basketball players getting 'paid'?

Start a minor league system or better yet, make high school seniors eligible for the draft.

[Nick]

If we don't win it all in the next two years, I think Henry extends the spending (and high tax) window one more year, then we re-set the tax.

I can see that.

[oldtimer]

Is there any MLB team out there that does not have a 25 man roster crunch and could use 2 of our out-of-options players?

In theory, I'd like to make a 2 or 3 for one trade for a decent 5/6th starter or a better LH'd RP'er than we have. My idea would look something like this:

Trade:
Johnson, Marrero and Travis
For:
A better SP'er than Johnson

Or,

Trade:
Hembree, Marrero and Ockimey (Beeks?)
For:
A LH'd RP'er (or 5/6 starter)

Or, we could just trade one out-of-options player for a player with options or a prospect.

Any trade that we make should consider what we do if Bogeyor Devers happen to be injured. Some of our options are Nunez, Marrero and Lin. We need to keep at least one utility player who can play solid defense at those positions. Marrero and Lin can do that, Nunez can but is not as capable defensively.