Jon Papelbon

dirtdogman5 · June 17, 2004

Age: 23

Born: November 23, 1980

Resides: Jacksonville, FL

Height: 6-4

Weight: 220

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

Drafted: 4th Round, 2003

How Acquired: Draft

College: Mississippi State

High School: Bishop Kenny High School

ETA: late 2006

Scouting Report: Good pitcher's build with a live arm and solid delivery. Good fastball, slurve curveball, decent change, and a promising breaking ball. Started 2004 atop Sarasota's rotation.

ESPN on Papelbon (May 21, 2004)

Friday, May 21, 2004

Sox's Papelbon adjusting to new role

------------------------------------------------------------------------

By John Sickels

Special to ESPN.com

Geoffrey from Dartmouth, Mass., writes: I was wondering about Red Sox prospect Jon Papelbon. He has the second most strikeouts in the Florida State League. Is he a legitimate prospect, and if so is his future as a starter or reliever?

Papelbon currently stands 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA in eight starts for the Sarasota Red Sox, with a 53/14 K/BB ratio in 39.1 innings. He's allowed 29 hits and just two homers thus far. A Mississippi State product, he was drafted by the Red Sox in the fourth round last year. He pitched poorly in the New York-Penn League last summer, posting a 6.34 ERA, so his strong performance in 2004 represents significant improvement.

Papelbon was a reliever in college, but the Red Sox are trying him out as a starter, and so far it seems to be working OK. His fastball has been clocked as high as 95 mph, though when he is used as a starter it is more commonly in the 90-92 range, which is still good enough. He has a slider and a changeup, both of which are inconsistent right now, though better than last year at this time. His command is pretty decent, but he sometimes gets in ruts and won't trust his stuff, nibbling too much. That should get better with experience.

We need to see what Papelbon does at higher levels. So far, the conversion to starting seems to be going pretty well, but he could end up back in the bullpen at some point if his slider and changeup remain erratic.

W-L ERA GS CG GF AB TBF IP H R ER BB IB SO HR HB WP

6- 3 2.89 12 1 0 221 253 62.1 48 24 20 20 1 81 3 7 2

RedSoxRooter · June 17, 2004

Very good strikeout to bb/ip numbers. As of the ESPN article, he was 3-3. But he's 6-3 now?

yeszir · September 6, 2004

Updated stats look extremely impressive:

Pitchers	W-L	ERA	G	GS	CG	GF	SH	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP

J.Papelbon	12-7	2.64	24	24	2	2	0	0	129.2	97	43	38	6	43	153	3

A 2.64 ERA! Most say he's our #2 pitching prospect behind alvarez (look at www.soxprospects.com for proof).

150 strikeouts in 130 innings is damn good if you ask me. I'm certainly looking forward to watching this guy progress

Zenny · September 6, 2004

I'd rate him #1, even ahead of Alvarez, but you can't go wrong with either one as your #1. They bring different things to the table. Most people only give him #3 starter upside because of his age, but he could become Curt Schilling at the rate he's going and I wouldn't be surprised.

yeszir · September 6, 2004

Originally posted by Zenny@Sep 6 2004, 07:00 PM
I'd rate him #1, even ahead of Alvarez, but you can't go wrong with either one as your #1. They bring different things to the table. Most people only give him #3 starter upside because of his age, but he could become Curt Schilling at the rate he's going and I wouldn't be surprised.

I really don't know anything about the guy, but do you see his ETA as being before late 2006 as ddm originally posted?

Zenny · September 6, 2004

I'd say that would be a proper ETA if he keeps pace. But the way his offspeed stuff has been developing, he could be a candidate for the 2006 rotation. He will definitely start 2005 in Portland's rotation. He could have been there half-way through this season, but Cherington and Theo decided to leave him in Sarasota to work with their pitching coach who is a guru on getting guys to develop their breaking balls, etc. He could spend half the year in Portland and the other half in Pawtucket next year. Hell, the way he's pitched, with a strong Spring, he could be in Pawtucket to start the year if they deem him ready.

I've spoken to his mother (no joke, let me know if you guys want proof) and she described one of his off-speed pitches as a "cut-splitter". Basically, it's a cross-seam splitter that has the basic downward movement of a standard, Schilling splitter, but it has a little tailing action at the end. Supposedly, it is very similar to Tim Hudson's off-speed split. (On soxprospect's bio, that is the unidentified "breaking ball".) He also has a very good slurve that is already a big strikeout pitch with that cut-split. They could become to plus pitches with his fastball if they develop at their current rate.

CrespoBlows · September 7, 2004

I really think you should become a scout

yeszir · September 7, 2004

Originally posted by CrespoBlows@Sep 7 2004, 11:01 AM
I really think you should become a scout

Indeed. How do you know all this, and how did you have the opportunity to talk to his mother? :huh:

Zenny · September 7, 2004

Originally posted by yeszir@Sep 7 2004, 11:03 AM
how did you have the opportunity to talk to his mother?

She is registered on the soxprospects board as "noblepap" (read it backwards). She has confirmed on several occasions with great detail that it is in fact her.

Zenny · September 8, 2004

:lol: Just like a mother, Mrs. Papelbon told her son to go on soxprospects.com and answer some questions! He just got power back in Florida and has only answered two questions thus far.

The questions by site owner:

1. There was a lot of push (by fans) that you deserved a promotion to Portland earlier in the season. There was also some mention that the organization kept you in Sarasota to work on some complementary pitches. Was this the case? Do you have a lot of contact with Theo or Ben Cherington on these issues, or do you only get to communicate with your manager?

2. What are your offseason (baseball) plans?

Pap's answers:

1. My coaches told me at the end of the season that there was a lot of talk about me going to Portland, but they said that the organization thought it would be better for me as a pitcher to stay in Sarasota and that I would progress better in Sarasota. Coach Nip worked with me on a lot of mechanical things that were working for me and wanted to continue leaving me in Sarasota to contribute to the squad.

2. Work out in Mississippi with some of my college teammates who are also pro players, and get on the offseason program that Roger Clemens does. I don't plan on playing on any fall/winter leagues, I threw too many innings during the season.

Wicked cool. Here's the link: http://p209.ezboard.com/fredsoxprospects57...picID=263.topic

empirestrikesback26 · September 8, 2004

Robinson cano.

Zenny · September 8, 2004

Originally posted by empirestrikesback26@Sep 8 2004, 06:51 PM
Robinson cano.

First, what does that have to do with Jon Papelbon? Second, he wouldn't even crack the Sox Top 10. Please, if you're looking to start a prospect fight, you are absolutely doing it with the wrong person.

empirestrikesback26 · September 9, 2004

Navarro

yeszir · September 9, 2004

It's on apparently. PROSPECT FIGHT!

Zenny · September 9, 2004

Looks like you're out of prospects, empire. By the way, Navarro wouldn't crack the Sox top 10 either. No question, most overrated prospect in the game.

empirestrikesback26 · September 9, 2004

that korean pitcher that won a medal at the olympics.

Zenny · September 9, 2004

Originally posted by empirestrikesback26@Sep 9 2004, 03:12 PM
that korean pitcher that won a medal at the olympics.

Oh, you mean the one who is having his first healthy season this year in about 3-4 years and had an ERA well over 4 in AA with sub-standard stuff? Yeah, I'm really impressed. By the way, his name is Chien Min-Wang.

empirestrikesback26 · September 9, 2004

homer bush

Zenny · September 9, 2004

Originally posted by empirestrikesback26@Sep 9 2004, 04:07 PM
homer bush

:lol: He's older than I am!

empirestrikesback26 · September 9, 2004

lol,so I saw him at a clippers game and he did well.

CrespoBlows · September 10, 2004

Originally posted by empirestrikesback26@Sep 9 2004, 04:07 PM
homer bush

he was in the Clemens trade

CrespoBlows · November 15, 2004

When is this guy going to be ready? I think '06 doesn't sound that crazy.

Zenny · November 15, 2004

Originally posted by CrespoBlows@Nov 15 2004, 04:56 PM
When is this guy going to be ready? I think '06 doesn't sound that crazy.

It wouldn't be overly crazy, but I'd like to see him dominate AA and AAA for 1/2 seasons next year. Still, I think he has the most upside of all our prospects. That's right, I said it. That includes Hanley and Manny D. I think this kid can be a very similar pitcher to Roger Clemens. THE Roger Clemens.

CrespoBlows · November 15, 2004

Other than his 2 plus pitches (Fastball and Slider) what other pitches does he throw?

Zenny · November 16, 2004

Originally posted by CrespoBlows@Nov 15 2004, 06:43 PM
Other than his 2 plus pitches (Fastball and Slider) what other pitches does he throw?

He has a plus cut-splitter as well. He also working on refining a changeup. Combine that with the fact the he has very little wear and tear on his arm due to just becoming a pitcher in college. This kid is going to be something to watch.

CrespoBlows · November 16, 2004

Cut splitter? Sounds pretty good.

What do you think our top pitching prospects are?

Mine are

1. Papelbon

2. Alvarez

3. Lester

4. Declarman

5. Sanchez

Zenny · November 16, 2004

In terms of potential:

Papelbon

Delcarmen

Lester

Sanchez

Alvarez

In terms of reaching their potential:

Alvarez

Papelbon

Sanchez

Lester

Delcarmen

So that'd leave my combined list like this:

Papelbon

Lester

Delcarm

Alvarez

Sanchez (I really want to see better offspeed stuff from him)

Chitalian Stallion · January 13, 2005

zenny, you should seriously become a scout

sullivakr · March 5, 2005

This is comical...a yanks fan trying to compare the Yankees prospects to the Bosox prospects. Yo dude, the Yankees prospects never make it to the Yankees roster...they always get traded for some overpriced player. Navarro being the perfect example. Cano and Duncan are the only two prospects Yanks prospects worth talking about, and they can't carry the jock of most Bosox prospects.

Zenny · March 9, 2005

By the way, Pap was Baseball America's #91 overall prospect.

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