Johan Santana or Dan Haren? - Talksox

TheKilo · 11-15-2007, 08:44 AM

Quote:

The Marlins are fielding offers for third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Sources indicate they've had discussions with the Red Sox, but Boston might be saving up its arsenal of young players for a run at Twins lefthander Johan Santana or Oakland righthander Dan Haren.

http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal..._move_twofold/

I like this. Make a run at these guys instead of MC or ARod.

bosoxnation07 · 11-15-2007, 08:51 AM

I've said all along, if you can lock Santanna up long term then do it. But if theres no deal in place and he wants to hit the FA market then let someone else trade for him.

If I had to choose I would put it like this, if you going to get Santana its gonna cost Buccholz and Ellsbury+ most likely, Haren I don't think will be as expensive,

Santana(+contract extension)-Ellsbury-Buccholz< Haren(Contract)+Buccholz+Ellsbury

Thats how I see, So I take Haren as a better value. Santana is obviously the better pitcher tho. But to beable to keep Buccholz and Ellsbury is very important. I think having Buccholz and Ellsbury makes up the difference betweeen Santana and Haren pitching wise.

HeadOfSoxNation · 11-15-2007, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

I've said all along, if you can lock Santanna up long term then do it. But if theres no deal in place and he wants to hit the FA market then let someone else trade for him.

If I had to choose I would put it like this, if you going to get Santana its gonna cost Buccholz and Ellsbury+ most likely, Haren I don't think will be as expensive,

Santana(+contract extension)-Ellsbury-Buccholz< Haren(Contract)+Buccholz+Ellsbury

Thats how I see, So I take Haren as a better value. Santana is obviously the better pitcher tho. But to beable to keep Buccholz and Ellsbury is very important. I think having Buccholz and Ellsbury makes up the difference betweeen Santana and Haren pitching wise.

Oakland isn't going to give Haren away though, man...you really think we'd be able to get Haren without using Buchholz or Ellsbury? I doubt it. Haren is filthy and only 27...he's got 6 years of prime left. The A's aren't going to move that for .50 on the dollar.

bosoxnation07 · 11-15-2007, 04:29 PM

Maybe 1 of them, but I still think the Sox have enough talent to deal without dealing either.

KeepTheFaith1229 · 11-15-2007, 04:37 PM

At least one of them for sure, I don't even think Beane would be interested unless it was both.

bosoxnation07 · 11-15-2007, 04:47 PM

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

bosoxnation07 · 11-15-2007, 04:50 PM

What does everyone think it will cst to get Sanatana? Lets seem some thinking here,

Coco,Buccholz,Masterson,Hansen/mid level prospect is my deal. And it only goes if we have Santana inked to a new deal. If its more then that I would be kind of reluctant, but whats everyone elses deal? Feel free to plug in other names or use more then 4 players going back the other way.

KeepTheFaith1229 · 11-15-2007, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

Yeah, I didn't say the Sox would trade them, but why would Oakland trade one of the best pitchers in baseball who's only 27 years old and not even receive one of our top two prospects? C'mon.

TheKilo · 11-15-2007, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

If Ellsbury is dealt for a Santana or Haren, Crisp won't go anywhere.

rician blast · 11-15-2007, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bosoxnation07

Ellsbury is the starting CF here for the future. If coco is traded then it will show that this is the case. So any trades involving him I doubt get done.

Buccholz is the teams pride enjoy as far as pitchers go. I think the FO is prowd of how they groomed him and how hes turned out. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. For either of these two the deal has to be a huge blockbuster, I mean big... I don't see either one getting traded unless its for Santana and they have him inked to an extension...

Regardless of Ellsbury being, as you put it, the "pride enjoy" and the FO being "prowd" of Buch, no one...I mean no one...is untouchable.

riverside sluggers · 11-15-2007, 05:35 PM

Now see Buchholz in a deal for Cabrera I wouldnt do, but... Buchholz in a package that would bring us Cy Young Joahn Santana, well sign me up for that. A front 3 of Santana, Beckett, Dice K would be nasty

Jayhawk Bill · 11-15-2007, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rician blast

Regardless of Ellsbury being, as you put it, the "pride enjoy" and the FO being "prowd" of Buch, no one...I mean no one...is untouchable.

As much as I'm against trading away young talent, I've got to concur that the trade value of Buchholz and Ellsbury is sky-high right now with their favorable 2007 stats, including highly favorable small sample size MLB stats. IF one wished to trade such talent, this would be a great moment to trade either one.

Rdsxmbnt · 11-15-2007, 06:10 PM

I'd like either, but I wouldn't trade Buchholz for Haren. Haren is more of a 3.75-4.00 ERA guy than low 3's. He had quite a bit of BABIP 'luck' in the first half and was a 4.00+ ERA pitcher when that went the other way. Definetly not bad too have at all, but I wouldn't surrender the type of talent you would give to get a top 5 pitcher in baseball like Santana which I'm worried may be the price given the season he just had.

SchillingIsTheNatural · 11-15-2007, 06:36 PM

As a thought...

Dan Haren had a lower ERA than Johan Santana and the same amount of wins with fewer losses in 2007. The teams (Oakland and Minnesota) were about equal.

Jayhawk Bill · 11-15-2007, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SchillingIsTheNatural

As a thought...

Dan Haren had a lower ERA than Johan Santana and the same amount of wins with fewer losses in 2007. The teams (Oakland and Minnesota) were about equal.

As another thought...

Baseball Reference most-similar pitchers to both Haren and Santana through their current ages. The number in parentheses is the similarity score: 1000 is perfect.

Dan Haren, through age 26:

Oil Can Boyd (982)
Brad Penny (979)
Jim Lonborg (977)
Joel Pineiro (968)
Ben McDonald (967)
Vicente Padilla (964)
Don Robinson (963)
Kevin Millwood (963)
John Lackey (963)
Rick Reuschel (963)

Not a bad group. Four out of ten declined badly (Boyd, Pineiro, McDonald and Padilla). Three of the ten (Penny, Lackey and Reuschel) were considered to have gotten better. Lonborg, reputed to have declined, actually played rather well for another decade, although he never regained his 1967 form.

Johan Santana, through age 28:

Tim Hudson (949)
Roy Oswalt (940)
John Candelaria (935)
Juan Pizarro (931)
Bob Welch (929)
Mike Mussina (928)
Kevin Appier (927)
Jack McDowell (921)
Kevin Millwood (915)
Sid Fernandez (915)

McDowell and Fernandez blew out their arms in the next few seasons; Hudson and Oswalt are still young. The interesting four are Candelaria, Pizarro, Welch and Mussina. They all had another solid decade ahead of them.

Santana's comparable pitchers are objectively a better lot. I'm surprised, though, that there are no HOF pitchers and only one late-career contender (Mussina) on both lists combined.