Bullpen Concerns - Page 17 - Talksox

Jayhawk Bill · 06-11-2008, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coco's Disciples

Yeah well, for some reason I sometimes associate people's avatars with what they actually look like, and well...yeah.

Yeah, I chose my avatar because of the personal resemblance.

YAZMAN · 06-12-2008, 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coco's Disciples

My god ORS, no matter how good of a poster you are, I can't take you seriously with that avatar.

Franks and beans, franks and beans, franks and beans.....

Relax, Woogie.

a700hitter · 06-12-2008, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by One Red Seat

Just look at Rasner. Thing is, he was picked up on waivers (speaking of which, they should do everything they can to move him now while he looks decent before the other shoe drops - and it will).

I think I heard a shoe drop in Oakland tonight.

Coco's Disciples · 06-12-2008, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Yeah, I chose my avatar because of the personal resemblance.

Well, obviously.

I am two men.

Soxfan#1 · 06-12-2008, 10:07 AM

I'm Superman and Jack Bauer.

rician blast · 06-12-2008, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YAZMAN

Franks and beans, franks and beans, franks and beans.....

Relax, Woogie.

Pat Healy: Really, it's only a side thing for my true passion.
Mary: And what's that?
Pat Healy: I work with retards.
Mary: Isn't that a little politically incorrect?
Pat Healy: Yeah, maybe, but hell, no one's gonna tell me who I can and can't work with.

"Those goofy bastards are about the best thing I've got going."

jacksonianmarch · 06-12-2008, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a700hitter

I think I heard a shoe drop in Oakland tonight.

I dont think anyone thought Rasner would be a sub 3 era guy. I didnt. But I do think that he should be a 4-4.5 ERA guy who can give innings. He throws strikes with 4 pitches and can locate to all 4 quadrants of the plate. nothing plus, so he will have games where the other team hits him hard. But he should be good enough to replace what we were expecting from Kennedy

TheKilo · 06-12-2008, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I dont think anyone thought Rasner would be a sub 3 era guy. I didnt. But I do think that he should be a 4-4.5 ERA guy who can give innings. He throws strikes with 4 pitches and can locate to all 4 quadrants of the plate. nothing plus, so he will have games where the other team hits him hard. But he should be good enough to replace what we were expecting from Kennedy

I thought Kennedy was the second coming?

One Red Seat · 06-12-2008, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a700hitter

Without Ortiz in the lineup, the offense will have big problems in those games that Crisp plays.

What I feared is that this is what we'd see while Papi recovers. Fortunately, the offense hasn't struggled because JD Drew decided to become one of the best hitters in the AL. How long will that last? Crisp is, yet again, horrible with a .301 OBP, with -4.9 Batting Runs compared to average with playing time in 52/68 games. Despite them winning games at a good clip w/o Ortiz, I think they need to bring Carter up to DH.

The question becomes, what kind of line does Carter need to put up to offset the difference between Manny and Jacoby in LF? Ellsbury is about 12 runs better per 100 games by Rate2 (30 adjusted games this year and last for Jacoby, 46 adjusted games for Manny). Not the best stat, but it's the easiest runs based metric to quickly access. If you figure Ortiz is out for another 33 games (a convenient 1/3), then the defense lost is worth 4 runs.

Crisp's -5 Batting Runs were compiled in 52 games. Over 33 games, that would be about -3. So, Carter would have to produce more than 1 Batting Run over 33 games. Every team has played an amount of games in the mid-60's, so double it. Now, who over the course of this season has produced 2 Batting Runs having played 60+ games? I'll limit the findings to guys with no steals, as we know Carter won't be doing that.

Garko - 1.6 - 0 SB - .265/.355.400
Millar - 1.2 - 0 SB - .249/.332/.422
Hannahan - 1.4 - 1 SB - .235/.345/.350

(They are harder to find than I thought). Can Carter beat that? My money says "yes".

jacksonianmarch · 06-13-2008, 08:51 AM

I wasnt expecting Kennedy to come out and be the second coming in his first yr. I do think Kennedy will be a solid pitcher, but I expected #5 type numbers this yr.

TheKilo · 06-13-2008, 09:48 AM

I don't have time to dig through all of the posts but I'm fairly confident this isn't the case.

jacksonianmarch · 06-13-2008, 01:52 PM

I dont think Kennedy's ceiling is as a #5. I think his ceiling can be as high as a #2. But for 2008, I expected #5 type numbers. I did not expect him to totally lose his control.

Jayhawk Bill · 06-13-2008, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I dont think Kennedy's ceiling is as a #5. I think his ceiling can be as high as a #2. But for 2008, I expected #5 type numbers. I did not expect him to totally lose his control.

Ian Kennedy is already 23.5 years old, he's posted an 0-3 record and a 7.41 ERA in 9 games this season, he only throws about 92 mph, and you're projecting him as a future number two starter?

BP 2007 Annual:

Quote:

The Yankees took Ian Kennedy with their first-round draft pick in 2006. He throws only 88 to 92, but is said to have a good feel for pitching. The Yankees liked him because the USC product is already close to his (low) ceiling.

There's no room for growth. Ian Kennedy's swift decline coincided with his having to face MLB batters in games where umpires knew that the Pitch f/x logs were being watched. Kennedy can be effective if the umpire awards him called strikes located over six inches off the outside corner. If he can't get that, he's trash.

TheKilo · 06-13-2008, 07:40 PM

Owned.

jacksonianmarch · 06-15-2008, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Ian Kennedy is already 23.5 years old, he's posted an 0-3 record and a 7.41 ERA in 9 games this season, he only throws about 92 mph, and you're projecting him as a future number two starter?

BP 2007 Annual:

There's no room for growth. Ian Kennedy's swift decline coincided with his having to face MLB batters in games where umpires knew that the Pitch f/x logs were being watched. Kennedy can be effective if the umpire awards him called strikes located over six inches off the outside corner. If he can't get that, he's trash.

So 9 games is enough to throw him under the bus? For a stat oriented guy, that sentence makes no sense. Hypocrite much?