Bullpen Concerns

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I dont think Kennedy's ceiling is as a #5. I think his ceiling can be as high as a #2. But for 2008, I expected #5 type numbers. I did not expect him to totally lose his control.

I don't completely understand rating a guy on rotation ceiling. What is a #2 starter supposed to produce? The #2 starter varies based on the team. A #2 starter on the Yankees isn't saying a lot since the Yankee rotation has been nothing to get excited about over the past several years.

Unless the Yankee offense scored 7 runs in every Ian Kennedy start I see him being a below .500 pitcher. He gives up more hits than innings pitched and walks as many as he Ks. Thats a recipe for disaster and since he doesn't have a "out-pitch" or overpower hitters at the plate...what does he turn to? Perhaps if he gained a considerable amount of experience he could learn to get hitters out based on knowledge but the Yankees won't put up with him that long....in fact they may have already ruined him.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by SchillingIsTheNatural

I don't completely understand rating a guy on rotation ceiling. What is a #2 starter supposed to produce?

I'd suggest that a number two starter pitches fewer innings than a number one starter and more than a number three starter.

Using that definition, I quickly checked (source THT) the 15th through 28th-ranked AL pitchers in IP for 2007. Here are the median stats:

W-L: 14.5 - 10
ERA: 4.24
SO: 124
BB: 63
IP: 197.5
GS: 31

OK...a number two starter might be a guy with a 14-10 record in 30 starts, an ERA a bit over 4.00, a 2:1 K/BB ratio in MLB, who approaches 200 IP.

Ian Kennedy isn't near that level today. I cited one report suggesting that he's near his ceiling--I've read others. I also know from reading Pitch f/x logs that he struggles unless he's given the outside pitch, especially with respect to lefties.

Some might consider the nine-game 2008 sample too small to assess that Ian Kennedy won't reach this level. I don't. My reasons are these:

1) His velocity is low for a young pitcher, maxing at about 92 mph. Such pitchers can succeed, but there are few who do. Greg Maddux was the primary exception, and it's now considered that his being given an expanded strike zone by most MLB umpires was critical to his success. With Pitch f/x in every ballpark, preferential strike zones are becoming things of the past.

2) If one checks the xFIP of Ian Kennedy's work in 2007, it wasn't much different from his xFIP in 2008.

Season	ERA	xFIP
2007	1.89	5.15
2008	7.41	5.86

The "real" Ian Kennedy is probably around that 5.86 xFIP, which is what he's getting with a fair strike zone in most of his games. That would leave his ERA in the high fives, much worse than the norm for AL second starters. If Kennedy had room to grow, things would be different, but pitchers as a rule peak earlier than position players, and Kennedy in particular appears to have hit his ceiling.

[ksushi]

Reading through this thread out of boredom... felt like adding a useless tidbit.

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Bowden, Masterson, Lowrie, then what? Hughes, Kennedy, Horne, McCutchen, Miranda, Gardner, then what?

More like Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, Lowrie, then Reddick, Anderson, and Carter. That is defintely neither here nor there, I just felt, for whatever reason, like chiming that in.

ORS, how do you keep great tabs on the minor leagues? Where you get yo' info, mang?

[jacksonianmarch]

I was pointing at the AAA talent/ MLB talent. I forgot Buchholz, sorry.

[ksushi]

It was a prospect run off, and when you compare two farm systems, gotta throw in the whole package. Reddick, Anderson, and Carter are guys with realistic chances to contribute to a major league team in due time. They deserve mention. I would even say Felix Doubront deserves mention, but I left him out because he hasn't had any kind of breakthrough anything.

I wish I knew as much about NYY's system.

[jacksonianmarch]

The yankees biggest prospects are deeper in the system, and there are others I forgot to mention

AAA- Robertson and Cox
AA- Kontos, Melancon, Cervelli, Tabata, Jackson
A+- Sublett, Pope, McCallister, Whelan, Garcia
A- Montero, Almonte, Laird, Romine, Angelini, Snyder, Suttle, Betances, Heredia

Then the injured guys like Brackman and Sanchez

Last season's INTL signees DeLeon and Vizcaino as well as Mexican signee Banuelos.

Then this draft which is very solid IMO, as is the sox draft. If a team wishes to find long range prospects, we have them.

[Gom]

Saying Kennedy throws 92 is a godsend. He's more like 88-89.

[jacksonianmarch]

In some games yes. Against tampa he was regularly hitting 91-92. Hence why I give a range.

[a700hitter]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

In some games yes. Against tampa he was regularly hitting 91-92. Hence why I give a range.

Kennedy is sort of like the Corvair of Major League Pitchers. He's unsafe (i.e. he sucks) at any speed.

[jacksonianmarch]

he's made what, 12 MLB starts, he's 23 and he already sucks?

[a700hitter]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

he's made what, 12 MLB starts, he's 23 and he already sucks?

He's somewhere between sucks and Jeff Suppan.

[Mr Crunchy]

at what point does he go from being a new face to a guy who cant get it done?
not even remote flashes of dominance here,nothing but failure and soft serve bullshit

[Jayhawk Bill]

The average speed of Ian Kennedy's pitches was 86.6 mph last year. The average speed of his fastball was 91.0 mph.

Here's a list of 2007 MLB starting RHP Kennedy's size (six feet tall or less) whose aggregate pitch velocity was under 90 mph last year*:

Name	Avg Speed
Elmer Dessens	87.4
Ian Kennedy	86.6
Tim Redding	85.9
Greg Maddux	85.1
Woody Williams	84.2
Yusmeiro Petit	83.8
Josh Fogg	83.7

This isn't exactly a list of superstar pitchers. How did Kennedy post such a low ERA?

1) His xFIP was over 5.00...he got lucky.

2) He had, by my count, 33 pitches outside the strike zone that were called strikes, 12% of all of his pitches thrown. He had balls missing on either side by as much as 7" called as strikes. He had four gifted strikes for every strike taken away by umpires' calls.




* Pitch f/x data pulled on September 1, 2007 for all pitchers except Kennedy.

[YAZMAN]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

In some games yes. Against tampa he was regularly hitting 91-92. Hence why I give a range.

He might hit 92...


...with a gale wind blowing in from dead center.

[ksushi]

In jacko's defense, if I had been a Yankee fan and Lester was a yankee, my unceasing love for him would have been ripped apart all over this board when he first came up. Similar to Lester's early goings, Kennedy looks like he sucks. Granted, Lester was of much better pedigree and had won awards such as "Eastern League Pitcher of the Year" and what not, but Lester looked equally bad and look how that turned out. He is one of the better pitchers in the AL right now.

That said, if I get the motivation, I'm going to find the thread I remember perusing where Jacko said a bunch of happy things about Kennedy that now look funny. You know I have to, dude. No offense. If you had made good on our bet, I wouldn't be so happy to do so.