The KiloMetric, Part Deux

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by example1

I like that you play these out for us thekilo. It's a lot of speculation but it's fun to read and think about.

Your prediction has the Sox winning at a lower rate (.560) than they have played all year (.571). Given that this team was missing David Ortiz for nearly 2 months and were apparently unlucky (highest run differential in AL), it seems much more likely to me that they will surpass your expectations.

To wit,

To get to 100 wins: .720 (36-14)
To get to 95 wins: .620 (31-19)

Some of the extra wins could be in the two series you have them losing at home to TOR, the home series vs CWS and the 2-2 series at home 9/22-9/25 vs. Cleveland. If the Sox don't do better against these teams at home I will be very disappointed. Of course, they could counter that by going 20-5 on the road. That's what fun about guessing. If this team really is gelling thanks to moving Manny (which I suspect they will) then a 95 win season is in the cards. The .620 WP would be the same as their record after their FIRST 50 games (31-19) and 95 wins would be a really good season.

While I don't disagree with your overall point, a couple of things really stand out to me:

1. Last year's Red Sox team underperformed with respect to their pythag record as well. I'm beginning to wonder if JHB's criticisms of Tito are warranted and that this team simply underperforms with him at the helm.

2. The bullpen is not as good as last season - this could be a huge factor as to why they struggle in one run games.

Expanding their current WP% to the rest of the schedule:

25 home games (current home WP% of 71.4%) = 17.8 wins
25 road games (current road WP% of 42.8%) = 10.7 wins

I would venture a guess and say the Red Sox win 28 of the final 50 games....bringing their win total to 92.

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team	Predicted Record	Actual Record	Differential
Tampa	68-45	68-45	0
New York	63-52	63-52	0
Boston	66-49	66-49	0

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team	Predicted Record	Actual Record	Differential
Tampa	71-46	71-46	0
New York	64-54	63-55	-1
Boston	69-50	68-51	-1

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team	Predicted Record	Actual Record	Differential
Tampa	73-47	73-47	0
New York	66-55	64-57	-2
Boston	71-51	71-51	0

[TheKilo]

Sox look to continue their hot hitting this weekend against the Toronto Blue Jays. These Jays are pretty much the polar opposite of the Texas Rangers that just left Fenway. The Blue Jays are the #1 pitching staff in all of baseball.

Positive? Their lineup sucks. Negative? The Sox are throwing Paul Byrd and Clay Buchholz this weekend. If there was ever a weekend for Clay to get back on track, it's this weekend. 2/3 would be fantastic, especially since they are up against Halladay, Marcum, and Burnett.

Tampa goes to Texas after squeaking by in 2/3 against the worst team in baseball right now. Texas will hit, no question. Can Tampa score with them? That's the ultimate question.

As for the Yankees, anything less than a sweep is disappointing. KC is pathetically bad.

[RedSoxRooter]

RSR stat of the minute. The Sox have scored 8 runs or more 22 times this year. 6 times in the last 13 games since Manny left.

[example1]

Originally Posted by RedSoxRooter

RSR stat of the minute. The Sox have scored 8 runs or more 22 times this year. 6 times in the last 13 games since Manny left.

E1 random stat:

Here are expected W-L records:

Cubs: 76-46
Sox: 73-49
Rays: 68-53
Phillies: 68-54
Angels: 66-54
Mets: 66-56
Yankees: 65-57
Jays: 65-57

Interestingly, the Sox and Cubs have very similar offensive numbers this season:

Team stats:
Cubs: .281/.358/.448
Sox: .281/.358/.445

The teams are first and second in walks, and unsurprisingly, second and third in runs (behind TX). The Sox are 6th in Runs Allowed, Cubs are 5th (Rays 4th, Angels 7th)

Runs Scored
Sox: 3rd
Rays: 20th

Runs Allowed
Sox: 6th
Rays: 4th

Random numbers, but I think they bode well for the Sox over the long run. I don't know if it is safe to see the Angels as a hands-down favorite in the AL, and the Sox compare favorably with the Rays in terms of run differential (Sox: +128, Rays: +73) and combination of offense and defense overall.

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team	Predicted Record	Actual Record	Differential
Tampa	74-49	75-48	+1
New York	69-55	66-58	-3
Boston	72-53	71-53	-0.5

[Mr Crunchy]

the toronto games,halliday to be specific,are the exact type of games where manny makes a difference.
he hits all pitching consistantly and halliday has been as dominant as any pitcher ive seen since the petey days...now if they cant bop hrs they need to manufacture and in order to make this happen you need baserunners obviously...
they have trouble against the best as most teams do but we've beaten halliday before,that wasnt the worst part of the weekend,yesterday was.
of course when your starter spots them 6 in the 1st then you dont have much of a shot anyway.

[rician blast]

I wonder if Manny woulda tweaked something before the Halliday game.

[TheKilo]

Manny v. Roy Halladay (86 PA)

.266/.314/.443/.757

3 HR, 12 RBI, 12 K

Not world-beating by any stretch. Besides, didn't Bay have two hits?

[Mr Crunchy]

he may have asked out but halliday never owned us,hes been great against us but we've managed to beat him before
manny makes every single hitter on the club better by his mere presence,lets not argue about this as its a given...kevin youkilis is now their best player and as good as he is he still doesnt bring that element to the table...nobody is pitching in fenway park with that ultra confidence with manram on the roster and as good as these guys are now,you've seen what the better pitching staffs have done to us...
im not arguing about moving manny,we had to unfortunetly.
im just explaining the facts of life without him,the offense needs to be somewhat redesigned for life after manny and its difficult to do in august..i still think they win the east or at least make the playoffs.if they do, they still have a shot at repeating but it was horrible losing him when we did and this is despite bay playing up to and better than we expected....think jd drew misses manny?

[BoSox21]

Originally Posted by rician blast

I wonder if Manny woulda tweaked something before the Halliday game.

Halladay isnt an especially hard thrower

[jacksonianmarch]

BTW, might want to do a metric on the twins and white sox

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

Team	Predicted Record	Actual Record	Differential
Tampa	75-51	77-49	+2
New York	71-56	67-60	-4
Boston	74-54	73-54	-0.5