The KiloMetric, Part Deux

[TheKilo]

I did this last year for the Sox and Yankees. I nailed the Sox prediction of 96 wins. The Yankees outperformed my expectations by four games (94 wins).

This season - a new team enters the fray. The Tampa Bay Rays have been a nuisance all season to the traditional powers of the American League East, and for the moment have shown no signs of slowing down. Being an inexperienced team who have never been in a pennant race before, it remains to be seen if they can handle the pressure.

How about the Yankees? Bias or not, they are the team in this stretch that improved themselves the most. Credit Cashman for getting Nady, Marte, and Rodriguez for a bunch of scrub minor leaguers and a shaky middle reliever. However, they did not improve their starting rotation. Wang is gone for the regular season and Hughes is still a few weeks away. Whether or not they can tread water with Pettitte, Mussina, Joba, and slop remains to be seen.

And finally, the Boston Red Sox. Trading away an icon, a former WS MVP, a fan favorite has left many scratching their heads. However, Manny Ramirez was not going to be the key to a potential repeat - the bullpen remains the biggest question. Their starting rotation has been solid (bumps from Buchholz notwithstanding), and they still have the postseason horse, Josh Beckett.

How will the final 50+ games play out? The best place to start would be the home/away splits the rest of the way for each team:

Team	Home Record	Away Record	Home Games Left	Away Games Left
Tampa Bay	43-16	23-28	22	30
New York	36-26	25-24	19	32
Boston	40-16	24-32	25	25

The Sox have the most home games of all of the three contending teams remaining. The Yankees have the least...but their home/away splits don't seem to affect them as much. The Rays have a lot of road games in September which will assuredly be the most important stretch of their season.

[TheKilo]

Another factor to consider is the three teams' pythagorean records, which are based off of the runs scored v. runs allowed for each team. (Courtesy BBref, as of yeaterday's games)

Team	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Actual Record	Pythag. Record	Difference
Tampa	488	438	65-44	60-49	+5
New York	524	474	60-50	60-50	0
Boston	552	459	63-48	65-46	-2

The strength of Tampa's resurgence has been their starting pitching. However, I have major concerns as to whether their young arms (specifically Garza and Shields) will be able to shoulder the load down the stretch. The Sox have room for improvement here but the big takeaway is the likelihood of a Tampa regression.

Lastly, we should look at the winning percentages for the opposition of these teams down the stretch. Again, these are as of the conclusion of yesterday's games:

Team	Opp. Win %
Tampa	.513
New York	.534
Boston	.517

The Yankees have the most difficult stretch remaining (most likely due to 7 more meetings with LAA). It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

I will break down each team's schedules in subsequent posts.

[TheKilo]

THE TAMPA BAY RAYS (66-44)

Date	Opponent	Series Outcome	Record
8-4/8-6	CLE	2-1	68-45
8-7/8-10	@SEA	3-1	71-46
8/12-8/14	@OAK	2-1	73-47
8/15-8/17	@TEX	1-2	74-49
8/18-8/20	LAA	1-2	75-51
8/22-8/24	@CWS	1-2	76-53
8/26-8/28	TOR	2-1	78-54
8/29-8/31	BAL	3-0	81-54
9/2-9/4	NYY	1-2	82-56
9/5-9/7	@TOR	1-2	83-58
9/8-9/10	@BOS	1-2	84-60
9/12-9/14	@NYY	1-2	85-62
9/15-9/17	BOS	2-1	87-63
9/18-9/21	MIN	2-2	89-65
9/22-9/24	@BAL	3-1	92-66
9/25-9/28	@DET	2-2	94-68

94 wins for the Rays? A very real possibility. Like I said before, the key to their season is 9/5 to 9/14, a nine game road trip to Toronto, Boston, and New York. I have them going 3-6 during those games, which could be on the conservative side.

Basically - what I'm trying to say is this - Tampa, barring a collapse from their starting pitching and/or bullpen, will win the American League East with 94 wins.

[Gom]

Holy shit...someone who uses statistics AND logic in an objective manner to formulate a conclusion?

I didn't know this kind of intelligence existed on this board anymore. Hat's off to you.

[TheKilo]

THE NEW YORK YANKEES (61-50)

Date	Opponent	Series Outcome	Record
8-4/8-7	@TEX	2-2	63-52
8-8/8-10	@LAA	1-2	64-54
8/11-8/13	@MIN	2-1	66-55
8/15-8/17	KC	3-0	69-55
8/19-8/21	@TOR	2-1	71-56
8/22-8/24	@BAL	2-1	73-57
8/26-8/28	BOS	2-1	75-58
8/29-8/31	TOR	2-1	77-59
9/1	@DET	0-1	77-60
9/2-9/4	@TB	1-2	78-62
9/5-9/7	@SEA	2-1	80-63
9/8-9/10	@LAA	1-2	81-65
9/12-9/14	TB	2-1	83-66
9/15-9/18	CWS	2-2	85-68
9/19-9/21	BAL	1-2	86-70
9/23-9/25	@TOR	2-1	88-71
9/25-9/28	@BOS	1-2	89-73

Another slow start to the season put the Yankees behind the 8-ball. The challenge for them this season was not a 14.5 game deficit, but a vastly improved division all-around. The Tampa resurgence is obvious, but Toronto has an excellent pitching staff and Baltimore is a lot better than anyone could have imagined.

Still, 89 wins is not a terrible season all things considered (the loss of Wang and the non-existence of Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation have KILLED them.

89 wins will not be enough for a playoff spot, IMO - the Yankees will be on the outside looking in come October.

[TheKilo]

THE BOSTON RED SOX (64-48)

Date	Opponent	Series Outcome	Record
8-4/8-6	@KC	2-1	66-49
8-8/8-11	@CWS	3-1	69-50
8/12-8/14	TEX	2-1	71-51
8/15-8/17	TOR	1-2	72-53
8/18-8/20	@BAL	2-1	74-54
8/22-8/24	@TOR	2-1	76-55
8/26-8/28	@NYY	1-2	77-57
8/29-8/31	CWS	1-2	78-59
9/1-9/3	BAL	3-0	81-59
9/5-9/7	@TEX	1-2	82-61
9/8-9/10	TB	2-1	84-62
9/12-9/14	TOR	1-2	85-64
9/15-9/17	@TB	1-2	86-66
9/19-9/21	@TOR	2-1	88-67
9/22-9/25	CLE	2-2	90-69
9/26-9/28	NYY	2-1	92-70

The Sox have the most home games of all teams remaining. They don't have a terrible schedule the rest of the way (I'd rather have 7 against CWS than LAA).

On an unrelated, and not statistic-related, note - the team seems like it's different now that Manny is gone. Yes, they may not be as talented on paper - but it seems to be a more complete team, without a major distraction and a reduced chance of dissension in the ranks.

It'll be interesting to see how the Central plays out. The Sox benefited in 2004 and 2005 from other divisions beating up on each other down the stretch. The Twins/White Sox could be the benefit of the Rays/Yankees/Sox series in September. I am not sure 92 wins is enough for the WC but I would say that it gives the Sox an excellent chance for October baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the kilometric's history holds, the yankees will be playing in the post season and the sox will be on the outside looking in.

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

If the kilometric's history holds, the yankees will be playing in the post season and the sox will be on the outside looking in.

Yes, because one year tells us a lot.

It can certainly happen - why do you think it will?

[TheKilo]

Another interesting note - at +103, the Sox have the best run differential in the AL.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have no idea how it turns out. Funny thing is, our season will not depend on the Mussina's Pettitte's and Joba's. It will depend on whomever throws the other 2 turns in the rotation. If we get 50% good starts (like this past week with Ponson pitching great and Rasner sucking) then we'll be good. For you guys, the road hurts. If you guys continue your roll at home and even play .450 ball outside of the Fens, then you're in. I just think the sox cannot keep up their pace at home and are gonna need to win this division with their road play. Can they do it? We'll see. The pen has been much better of late. If that keeps up, then they're in the drivers seat

[Gom]

Guys keep in mind one thing. One three game winning streak either way, and the numbers change drastically. The Yankees win the pitching matchup in all four games against Texas. If they can pull off 3 out of 4, it's a brand new ball game.

[example1]

I like that you play these out for us thekilo. It's a lot of speculation but it's fun to read and think about.

Your prediction has the Sox winning at a lower rate (.560) than they have played all year (.571). Given that this team was missing David Ortiz for nearly 2 months and were apparently unlucky (highest run differential in AL), it seems much more likely to me that they will surpass your expectations.

To wit,

To get to 100 wins: .720 (36-14)
To get to 95 wins: .620 (31-19)

Some of the extra wins could be in the two series you have them losing at home to TOR, the home series vs CWS and the 2-2 series at home 9/22-9/25 vs. Cleveland. If the Sox don't do better against these teams at home I will be very disappointed. Of course, they could counter that by going 20-5 on the road. That's what fun about guessing. If this team really is gelling thanks to moving Manny (which I suspect they will) then a 95 win season is in the cards. The .620 WP would be the same as their record after their FIRST 50 games (31-19) and 95 wins would be a really good season.

[yankees228]

Nicely done Kilo. As E1 said, these are fun to read and debate over.

The Yankees need two things to happen to exceed the win total you gave them, in my opinion.

They need to really go on a prolonged tear offensively like they did after the ASB last year. There have been times where it looked like that would happen, only to see them fall flat on their faces for the next week.

The lineup, for the rest of the season, should closely resemble this...

Johnny Damon DH
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Xavier Nady LF
Robinson Cano 2B
Ivan Rodriguez C
Melky Cabrera CF

For this "tear" to occur a few things need to happen differently than they have been over the course of the season. For one, Derek Jeter really needs to start hitting. So far this year Jeter is slugging .395. This is well below his career average. I understand a drop off is expected, but Jeter's really has been very extreme. It's possible that this will continue, but for the Yankees to be successful they cannot have Jeter hitting like that in the number two spot. If he starts performing better, it really transforms the entire lineup (many more RBI chances for Abreu and Jeter).

Every single year, or so it seems, Giambi goes through hot and cold stretches. But not normal hot and cold stretches, but extreme ones. Giambi's season has really broken down into three parts so far this year. Very poor at the beginning. Scorching hot. And then he has been truly awful for a little over a month. Giambi has been killing the Yankees lately, and if he can pick it up, it would be a huge lift. I'm not saying he's due to get hot, but his trends over the last few years tend to hint that he may do so. He gets tons of RBI chances and he needs to start cashing in.

Robinson Cano needs to get that hand healthy. He just really seemed to be coming around (I know he won't remain as hot as he was), and it would really hurt the Yankees for him to have to miss any more time.

Guys like Damon, Abreu, and A-Rod need to just keep doing what they're doing and remain consistent. Obviously it would really hurt if one of them stopped performing well, and that possibility always exists. However, I don't view these guys as the problem.

Also, Pudge and Melky don't need to do anything spectacular. They're not the worst 8-9 imaginable, and if they're just decent it should be more than enough (or at least one of them).

I'm not going to offer an opinion on Nady because I simply don't know him well enough.

The three through five spots in the rotation are the other key.

Pettitte needs to start pitching much more consistently. He seems to be very up and down, and they need more of a consistent trend from him. He'll get a good test tuesday against the Rangers, which I'll be attending.

The fourth and fifth starters pose the biggest problem. Rasner needs to go. That's clear. And with Ponson it really is playing with fire. He has the ability to put together some good starts, but there always seem to be a lot of base runners and some really good defensive plays need to be made behind him.

The most likely option is Ian Kennedy, who has been pitching very well in AAA. I expect to see him make the start next friday against LAA in Rasner's place. Phil Hughes is a little further down the line, but it remains to be seen if they even want to bring him to the majors this year. It is also still possible that Jarrod Washburn will become a target again if the Mariners lower their asking price.

Also, I know I'm going to get killed here, but another option, and one I would like to test out is Carl Pavano. It appears as if Pavano finally might be healthy (he has made two rehab appearances), and is currently building up his arm strength. During Pavano's time in the majors, albeit brief, he was pretty successful (and certainly better than what Rasner and Ponson have provided). Clearly health still, and always will be a question with him, but if he can remain healthy he can also be effective. I think he can be someone that could prove to be a difference maker for the Yankees. For what it's worth, I'm in no way counting on Carl Pavano for obvious reasons.

Of course, Chamberlain and Mussina also need to keep pitching well.

This is more of a Yankees discussion, so it can be continued in another thread, but as long as we were talking about what each team needs to do down the stretch, I figured it was appropriate to post this here.

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by Gom

Guys keep in mind one thing. One three game winning streak either way, and the numbers change drastically. The Yankees win the pitching matchup in all four games against Texas. If they can pull off 3 out of 4, it's a brand new ball game.

Not really - they gain one game on my projection.

[Gom]

I love your avatar.