Bard vs Papelbon - Talksox

Looch Ness Monster · 08-01-2009, 10:45 PM

Daniel Bard is really making a case to be the future closer of the team. Jonathan Papelbon is making a case to be the next Kyle Farnsworth for the NYY in a few years.

I understand that Papelbon is the closer and will continue to be the closer for the rest of the season, there's no question about that.

But right now Daniel Bard is showing that as the bigger the situation becomes, the more confidence he shows and the more dominant he is. Believe it or not they have almost identical ERA's (although Paps has 14 or so more IP)..the difference is WHIP. Bard is at about 0.96 while Papelbon is at about 1.33. Not as sexy of a stat now that he doesn't have a WHIP of 0.77 like he did in 2006.

I've watched pretty much every game this year and Papelbon is starting to lose it. Sure people will come in here and say "Oh for crying out loud he has 3 blown saves, stop crying"..but my eyes don't lie. A clean inning for Papelbon is a walk, a single, a ground out, a strikeout and a fly ball out that goes to the warning track. Am I wrong?

Maybe I'm just getting on my high horse because of Bard's recent performance where he hasn't allowed a run in 14+ innings and has been striking out hitters at a ridiciulous rate. Maybe we have to wait until he gets more experience and shows he can handle a full Major League season. Maybe we have to wait until he starts to face teams for the 3rd or 4th time to crown him. But in my eyes he should be given a chance to compete for Papelbon's closer role in 2010, Papelbon can only hold on to his reputation as an elite closer for so long. That shoulder's going to start to wear down really soon as he pushes 30 years old with that violent delivery.

And please read the whole post before coming in here and bashing me saying how "Papelbon is untouchable and the best closer in baseball"

Dipre · 08-01-2009, 11:23 PM

The split:

He refuses to throw it.

ManRam · 08-01-2009, 11:50 PM

After seeing Bard this season I wouldn't be that mad if we dealt Papelbon (Maybe in a package with Lowell for a good young C+) Although I'd be extremely cautious. Buchholz looked like he was on the highway to "ace" 2 years ago, but shit the bed last season. Granted he's coming around now, going a full season without a legit closer could hurt.

Teddyballgame10 · 08-02-2009, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dipre

The split:

He refuses to throw it.

He refuses to throw it and is losing money in the process.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManRam

After seeing Bard this season I wouldn't be that mad if we dealt Papelbon (Maybe in a package with Lowell for a good young C+) Although I'd be extremely cautious. Buchholz looked like he was on the highway to "ace" 2 years ago, but shit the bed last season. Granted he's coming around now, going a full season without a legit closer could hurt.

More than a C+ for that.

example1 · 08-02-2009, 04:45 AM

He's still a very good closer. He has less control and doesn't throw the split like he did in the past, but he's still very hard to hit.

If your premise is right that Papelbon is losing it, they should him to Seattle in the offseason as part of a package for Felix. It would be a bold move for both teams. He's still a good pitcher and he's better than Aardsma. He would be a good answer for a fan base who will need to know who they got, and he has an obvious replacement in Bard and a few other pitchers who may be able to pick up the role if necessary (MDC, Ramirez, even Oki). Again, it would be bold but would definitely help the team get younger and more dynamic.

BSN07 · 08-02-2009, 06:08 AM

I've already stated I see Papelbon getting traded this off season. Bard is the closer of the future.

Dipre · 08-02-2009, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by example1

He's still a very good closer. He has less control and doesn't throw the split like he did in the past, but he's still very hard to hit.

If your premise is right that Papelbon is losing it, they should him to Seattle in the offseason as part of a package for Felix. It would be a bold move for both teams. He's still a good pitcher and he's better than Aardsma. He would be a good answer for a fan base who will need to know who they got, and he has an obvious replacement in Bard and a few other pitchers who may be able to pick up the role if necessary (MDC, Ramirez, even Oki). Again, it would be bold but would definitely help the team get younger and more dynamic.

Papelbon's control has not eroded, his BB spike stems from the fact that absolutely everyone is sitting on his fastball, and it's a lot easier to identify a FB when it's a ball when you don't have to worry about the split, or basically anything else with Papelbon.

ORS · 08-02-2009, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dipre

Papelbon's control has not eroded, his BB spike stems from the fact that absolutely everyone is sitting on his fastball, and it's a lot easier to identify a FB when it's a ball when you don't have to worry about the split, or basically anything else with Papelbon.

Not only that, but he doesn't throw off their timing either. Several of his walks this year were long at bats where batters fouled off a bunch of his strikes. If the past, respect for the split would make them late on some of those pitches they are now fouling off.

Dipre · 08-02-2009, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ORS

Not only that, but he doesn't throw off their timing either. Several of his walks this year were long at bats where batters fouled off a bunch of his strikes. If the past, respect for the split would make them late on some of those pitches they are now fouling off.

To tell you the truth, this makes you think about how dominant Papelbon really is, since he has numbers in the upper echelon for closers even though he throws nothing but fastballs.

a700hitter · 08-02-2009, 11:20 AM

I think he is saving the wear and tear on his arm by staying away from the split. He's doing pretty well getting by on just a fastball. Last year he did much the same thing. There was that one game when he blew a save and he threw nothing but fastballs and people started asking where's the splitter? Varitek defended him and said that he's a fastball pitcher so I call for the fastball. At the end of the year and the playoffs, he worked in the splitter and an ocassional slider. I think he'll do the same as he starts to lose a little on the fastball as the season wears on.

I don't get theis Bard for closer talk yet. I'm not excited to get rid of Papelbon. I am excited that if Bard continue this progression that he and Papelbon will shorten games to 6 or 7 innings. That is a formula for success. Bard just recently learned to throw consistent strikes. By this point in his development, Papelbon was already a big time closer. Some guys develop slower than others and he may become a dominant closer or late inning guy. He isn't there yet. Papelbon has been ther for some time. Comparing the two guys, I would say that it is clear that Bard has a good curve. Papelbon has never developed consistent offspeed stuff, but neither has Mo. Bard throws harder, but IMO Papelbon's ball has more movement. That's the key. That's why Papelbon is elite.

Dipre · 08-02-2009, 11:29 AM

Maybe some of these people weren't fans on the days of Slocumb and the bullpen-by-committee.

Papelbon is a proven closer, Bard is not, if you honestly think Bard can handle the closer role for next year you're kidding yourselves.

And established closer is a key part of a championship-caliber team.

Bard is filthy, but Paps is proven, so really, stop it with the ship Papelbon off pipe dreams.

ORS · 08-02-2009, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a700hitter

I think he is saving the wear and tear on his arm by staying away from the split. He's doing pretty well getting by on just a fastball. Last year he did much the same thing. There was that one game when he blew a save and he threw nothing but fastballs and people started asking where's the splitter? Varitek defended him and said that he's a fastball pitcher so I call for the fastball. At the end of the year and the playoffs, he worked in the splitter and an ocassional slider. I think he'll do the same as he starts to lose a little on the fastball as the season wears on.

I don't get theis Bard for closer talk yet. I'm not excited to get rid of Papelbon. I am excited that if Bard continue this progression that he and Papelbon will shorten games to 6 or 7 innings. That is a formula for success. Bard just recently learned to throw consistent strikes. By this point in his development, Papelbon was already a big time closer. Some guys develop slower than others and he may become a dominant closer or late inning guy. He isn't there yet. Papelbon has been ther for some time. Comparing the two guys, I would say that it is clear that Bard has a good curve. Papelbon has never developed consistent offspeed stuff, but neither has Mo. Bard throws harder, but IMO Papelbon's ball has more movement. That's the key. That's why Papelbon is elite.

Yeah, it's really not an either/or situation. It's both. Enjoy it.

EDIT: At the risk of running into "preconceived" notions about what I'm saying, I'm agreeing with you and directing the "Enjoy it" part at everyone.

Jacoby_Ellsbury · 08-02-2009, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dipre

Maybe some of these people weren't fans on the days of Slocumb and the bullpen-by-committee.

Papelbon is a proven closer, Bard is not, if you honestly think Bard can handle the closer role for next year you're kidding yourselves.

And established closer is a key part of a championship-caliber team.

Bard is filthy, but Paps is proven, so really, stop it with the ship Papelbon off pipe dreams.

What is an 'established closer'? One of them tuff rugged guize at the end of teh 'pen with dat bulldawg, cuntree mentality u gotta have to get them there outs? No, I don't buy it.

A closer, like every other reliever on the roster, has one job - get outs. Either he does or he doesn't. Bard is getting outs. If you have perfectly good (and probably cheaper) alternatives already on your roster, why not ship Papelbon to some team that will probably overvalue him and give us more than he's worth? Both Bard and Ramon Ramirez would be sufficient closers.

**schillingouttheks** · 08-02-2009, 12:24 PM

I agree in part, J_E, but at the same time it's like fixing something that isn't broken.

Dipre · 08-02-2009, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacoby_Ellsbury

What is an 'established closer'? One of them tuff rugged guize at the end of teh 'pen with dat bulldawg, cuntree mentality u gotta have to get them there outs? No, I don't buy it.

A closer, like every other reliever on the roster, has one job - get outs. Either he does or he doesn't. Bard is getting outs. If you have perfectly good (and probably cheaper) alternatives already on your roster, why not ship Papelbon to some team that will probably overvalue him and give us more than he's worth? Both Bard and Ramon Ramirez would be sufficient closers.

Your closer, is not the "whatever full of fail statement you mentioned above", but the best reliever on your roster.

And if you wanna make an argument that Daniel Bard is a better reliever than Jonathan Papelbon with his SSS of innings you will fail. Miserably.