Beckett vs Lester in Game 1 - Talksox

bottomlinesox · 09-24-2009, 11:13 AM

Hi guys!

My name is Rob and I write The Bottom Line blog. I wanted to check in and see what this forum was all about.

Here's my question for you guys:

Does Josh Beckett get the automatic nod from Game 1 in the playoffs?

Beckett seems to have turned the page from a horrible August, but he's 7-5 with a 4.13 ERA on the road this year, compared to a 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA at home. He's also 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 15 hits allowed in two starts against the Halos this year, though I will conceed that this first start was just his 2nd of 2009, so those #s are almost void at this point.

Lester has been the more consistent pitcher in the second half, posting a 2.57 ERA, A .216 BAA and a 6-1 record. The Sox have won his last 7 starts and Lester hasn't taken a loss since 7/19 - 12 starts ago.

Bottom Line: I guess it comes down to who you want pitching Game 5 - if it gets to that. Personally, I like Lester on the road in Game 5 over Beckett, especially since the Angels haven't faced him this season and therefore have less to work with. But Beckett is the unofficial ace of the staff, so you might not want to mess with his head by starting him 2nd.

What do you guys think?

Thanks for reading!

Rob
The Bottom Line - A Red Sox blog

The_Destroyah · 09-24-2009, 12:38 PM

I don't think it would be too smart to do that to Beckett, especially since Beckett owns in the post season, and if Beckett is on, there are few pitchers in the league that you would put over him, we will go forth with Beckett as the number 1 and Im sure recieve good results, not to take anything away from Lester who is having a phenomenal season and is most definitely one of the top 3 lefties in the league.

bottomlinesox · 09-24-2009, 01:02 PM

Good stuff Destroyah.

I'll add this as food fro thought:

The Angels are hitting lefties at a .283 clip this year - seceond only to the Yankees at .287.

Dipre · 09-24-2009, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bottomlinesox

Good stuff Destroyah.

I'll add this as food fro thought:

The Angels are hitting lefties at a .283 clip this year - seceond only to the Yankees at .287.

Batting average against should be the last thing taken into account when making this decision.

bottomlinesox · 09-24-2009, 02:06 PM

Dipre - It was some "food for thought" but now I'm curious... what stat(s) do you feel should be used to make this call?

Most would argue that Beckett postseason resume speaks for itself, but a look at his 2008 postseason numbers, implies that if he has less than stellar regular season, he's likely to have a less than stellar postseason.

2008 REG: 12-10, 4.03 ERA
2008 POST: 1-0, 8.79 ERA (3 starts)

2007 REG: 20-7, 3.27 ERA
2007 POST: 4-0, 1.20 ERA (4 starts)

His 2009 stats are solid: 16-6, 3.78 ERA, 194 Ks to 52 walks... but they're in between his 07 stats and his 08 stats... so you tell me what to expect this year.

jacksonianmarch · 09-24-2009, 02:11 PM

Lester is your best pitcher right now. You have to see how Beckett pitches in the last 2 games, but he has been way too hittable of late. If it were up to me, I would start your best pitcher

Emmz · 09-24-2009, 02:20 PM

What are you getting at exactly? He's had a couple "off" seasons his entire career, he's been to the postseason three different times, and just keep it simple, he has a career 2.90 ERA in the postseason. Don't have to overanalyze what he does in which year because of what factors

Emmz · 09-24-2009, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Lester is your best pitcher right now. You have to see how Beckett pitches in the last 2 games, but he has been way too hittable of late. If it were up to me, I would start your best pitcher

Lester might be our best pitcher, but Beckett has been very good in the postseason throughout his career, which I think makes his case much better for starting the first game

BoSox21 · 09-24-2009, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bottomlinesox

Most would argue that Beckett postseason resume speaks for itself, but a look at his 2008 postseason numbers, implies that if he has less than stellar regular season, he's likely to have a less than stellar postseason.

Most would argue that if Beckett is pitching with a torn oblique, it would imply that he's likely to have a less than stellar postseason.

Lester owned the Angels in two starts in the ALDS last year so I see no reason why this year wouldn't be the same. I would also count on Lester to recover better to pitch twice on short rest than Beckett right now.

I don't think you can go wrong either way but I'd give the nod to Lester.

bottomlinesox · 09-24-2009, 02:44 PM

What I'm getting at is this: Beckett was nasty in 2007, so it wasn't surprising to see him dominate in the postseason... he was mediocre in 2008 and he didn't magically turn into 2007 Beckett come October.

To assume that he will flick a switch in the postseason and dominate is silly.

I'll admit that he was fighting injuries in 2008, specifically in the postseason, but the Bottom Line is this - Lester has been more consistant and after watching Beckett give up 12 hits to the Royals, I'm going to need to see something inspiring in his last two starts before I conceed that he is the best starter we have.

Just my 2 cents

bottomlinesox · 09-24-2009, 02:45 PM

you beat me to the injury note... point taken.

The_Destroyah · 09-24-2009, 02:46 PM

not to mention, you dont do that to your number 1, Im not big on worrying about players emotions, but thats not a message we would want to send to an ace who we would probably like to resign soon, when Beckett is on he is among the top 5 pitchers in the league, he is a number 1 even if he is having a rough patch and Im not going to be worried if Beckett is our number 1 pitcher for the post season, Id be more upset if he wasnt. if we give him a bit extra rest here I think he will be fine, he has been less than stellar as of late but not nearly as he was last year, I will still give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves he isnt worthy which I honestly dont see happening.

Emmz · 09-24-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bottomlinesox

What I'm getting at is this: Beckett was nasty in 2007, so it wasn't surprising to see him dominate in the postseason... he was mediocre in 2008 and he didn't magically turn into 2007 Beckett come October.

To assume that he will flick a switch in the postseason and dominate is silly.

I'll admit that he was fighting injuries in 2008, specifically in the postseason, but the Bottom Line is this - Lester has been more consistant and after watching Beckett give up 12 hits to the Royals, I'm going to need to see something inspiring in his last two starts before I conceed that he is the best starter we have.

Just my 2 cents

It's not flicking a switch, it's kicking it into high-gear. The greatest athletes do this. Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time, and one of the greatest athletes (arguably THE greatest of all time) and we all know the MVPs, that he averaged 30 points throughout his career. You look at his stellar regular season numbers, and you look at his Playoff numbers, and tell me that his playoff numbers aren't better. They are, despite playing against elite teams every day, his numbers are better than his regular season career stats. The great ones can switch to a higher level when it's time, it's what separates them from the others. Josh Beckett is a clutch pitcher, he's proven that. He'll have a good regular season, but come postseason, he almost becomes unbeatable, he's done this with the Marlins and the Red Sox, and the one time he didn't do it he was battling an injury.

With this being said, I honestly don't think it matters. Beckett's going to give you a great outing in the playoffs, Lester is going to as well, Lester has been more consistent, but Beckett has bad more playoff experience. It's a coin flip, and I think there's no wrong choice here

BoSox21 · 09-24-2009, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bottomlinesox

I'll admit that he was fighting injuries in 2008, specifically in the postseason, but the Bottom Line is this

lol, he even capitalized "bottom line"

rhet · 09-24-2009, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Emmz

Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time

He was the greatest scorer and most spectacular basketball athlete. But I'd take a couple guys over him if I was starting a team. Although Bird averaged 6 points less, he had a lot more rebounds and averaged more assists, even though he was a forward. I also would take Magic over Jordan.