Bay vs. Holliday - Page 2 - Talksox

example1 · 10-12-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Emmz

Yeah, true, but honestly I think going after an Adrian Gonzalez makes it even better. Every Don needs his Enforcer.

The Sox were ready to trade a ton of prospects to get Adrian Gonzalez... and then move Gonzalez to Seattle for Felix Hernandez. I bet they still are.

If they're going to deal prospects (see: Buchholz, Clay) they need to get pitching back, and that pitching needs to be big enough to support the team for a long time. Lester + Felix for most of their careers would do just that.

Having Hollidays improved production over Bay, PLUS having Victor Martinez for a full season, PLUS having Dice-K back to at least 2007 form, would give this team a bunch more wins in 2010.

After 2010 I believe the Sox lose a good number of declining players (ortiz and lowell, specifically), but Pujols, Mauer and Prince Fielder are all slated to be FAs. The Sox could break the bank for one of them and THEN have the lineup you covet (correctly so, IMO).

After 2010 they would have a core of the team with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Holliday, Drew and probably another big FA. That's really solid and would be sustainable moving forward.

example1 · 10-12-2009, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadianSox

Who is to say that Holliday is even an option. As I see it, if I was the Cards I would be signing him before anyone else has a chance to get their hands on him.

Scott Boras doesn't usually operate that way, does he?

CanadianSox · 10-12-2009, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by example1

Scott Boras doesn't usually operate that way, does he?

True but you never know. Look what happened last year when he tried that. Granted Manny was basically only wanted by one team but still. Not sure if anyone else he's represents hasn't hit the open market (big names).

jacksonianmarch · 10-12-2009, 08:00 PM

this is a good article on the landmine that could be Jason Bay. Interesting read

http://ussmariner.com/2009/10/08/sor...dont-want-you/

Quote:

Sorry, Jason, We Don’t Want You
Dave · October 8, 2009 at 9:43 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Over the last few years, I’ve done an off-season series called “free agent land mines”, where I laid out players to avoid giving large contracts to who just weren’t going to be worth it. Because it was just that kind of organization, the M’s kept picking guys off the list and targeting them for acquisition, throwing big money at guys like Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva. Thank God those days are gone.

With a new regime in place that actually knows how to build a baseball team, I don’t really feel compelled to do a land mine post this year. This front office knows how to evaluate talent, and I have no fear that they’re going to go toss a bunch of money on a long term deal at an overrated aging veteran who has some mythical quality they think they need. A new day, a new way, and all that.

However, I did want to single out one guy whose name keeps popping up for a couple of reasons – the main one being that he’s local and still lives in the area. That he can hit is a nice bonus, since the M’s were last in the league in offense and all that, and for some people, the recipe of good hitter + from Seattle = guy we should be interested in. However, it’s a bad idea in a lot of ways. No matter how many people try to convince you otherwise, just say no to Jason Bay.

He’s 31 years old, right-handed, and not really much an outfielder anymore. He has classic old player skills. In fact, he’s eerily reminiscent to some other free agent the M’s blew a lot of money on.

Bay, 2009: .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins
Sexson, 2003: .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins

The numbers are from Sexson’s last healthy season before the M’s signed him – you’ll recall that he missed most of his contract year with a shoulder problem, but then went right back to being the player he was before the injury. Interestingly, Sexson was actually headed into his age 29 season when the M’s signed him, so Bay’s actually even further into his decline phase than Richie was. Richie made better contact than Bay does, if you can believe that. Their power levels were similar, and they both offset the low batting averages by drawing a bunch of walks.

In terms of skillsets, they’re basically the same player – quality (but aging) power hitters who don’t fit the park and play defense like a DH. These are the types of players that make the worst free agent signings. Power is overvalued in the market, while defense is undervalued, so sluggers almost always get paid more than they’re worth. Toss in the fact that this skillset doesn’t age well, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Even setting aside the presence of players like Michael Saunders (and, to a lesser extent, Dustin Ackley), the Mariners should have absolutely no interest in Jason Bay. He might be interested in playing closer to home, but that’s just too bad – I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole.

Some team is going to give him a hefty contract this winter. Thankfully, it’s not going to be the Mariners. After making a huge mistake on this player type five years ago, the M’s aren’t going to do that again.

example1 · 10-12-2009, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

this is a good article on the landmine that could be Jason Bay. Interesting read

http://ussmariner.com/2009/10/08/sor...dont-want-you/

Who is the quality DH that the Mariners are coveting over Bay? That's right, they don't have one. Not touching a guy like Bay with a 10 foot poll, without knowing his asking price or availability to play OF is foolish.

jacksonianmarch · 10-12-2009, 08:57 PM

I, for one, think he is well worth it in the AL. But I figure I should put some differing perspectives on here. Hell, I'd take Bay in LF at the stadium

Lester82 · 10-12-2009, 09:16 PM

Holliday in 2010

Spudboy · 10-12-2009, 10:14 PM

A friend of mine suggested Crawford in left with either Gonzalez or Fielder at 1st.

I kind of like the idea. Better D in left with another 50-60 SB, and a true big power bat at 1st.

Dojji · 10-12-2009, 10:21 PM

Even if the Rays are willing to contemplate trading Crawford, which is doubtful in its own right, they will NOT trade him to Boston (or for that matter, to NYY)

Dipre · 10-12-2009, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dojji

Even if the Rays are willing to contemplate trading Crawford, which is doubtful in its own right, they will NOT trade him to Boston (or for that matter, to NYY)

The option has to be picked up please.

TheKilo · 10-13-2009, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dojji

Holliday is the better player, BUT until free agency begins we should be bending all our efforts to re-signing Bay anyway.

My reasoning is simple. We still have Jason Bay as a captive audience until free agency starts. It makes no sense at all not to make use of that. If he wants to test the waters and files for free agency, then the two are on equal standing and you should probably go more after Holliday. But don't ignore Bay even then, he's a huge asset in left field even if you accept the premise that Holliday's better.

Realistically I'd go hard after both. I don't think there's any particular reason to make the call as if we can only have one. Sure it's highly improbable to actually GET both players, but if you go hard after both the chance of getting at least one increases IMHO.

The worst case scenario here would be going after Holliday, losing him, going back after Bay, losing him. There's 29 other teams and many of them could use either guy and many of them have money to spend.

BTW I have a secondary reason for preferring Jason Bay. Bay is not a Boras client.

If Bay's agent is worth a damn there's no way Bay signs before the FA period. Do you think before you hit the submit button?

TheKilo · 10-13-2009, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadianSox

Who is to say that Holliday is even an option. As I see it, if I was the Cards I would be signing him before anyone else has a chance to get their hands on him.

Scott. Boras.

TheKilo · 10-13-2009, 10:25 PM

As far as the whole Holliday v Bay debate, I think that Holliday is the better player and will be the better fit, but I fear he's going to command a Teixeira-like contract and Boras will force the team that signs him to overpay for him.

I don't think either sign with their respective teams during the exclusive window, as both know the value of their contracts could be tied to the other.

I'd like to see the Sox add Holliday personally, but Bay might be the safer play because Boras can drag out negotiations to the bitter end, and if the Yankees or another team swoop in and drastically overpay for Holliday/Bay the Sox could be caught with their pants down, a la MT last season.

They need one to play LF next season. I don't like the idea of a Drew-Ellsbury-Reddick outfield come opening day.

Dipre · 10-13-2009, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheKilo

If Bay's agent is worth a damn there's no way Bay signs before the FA period. Do you think before you hit the submit button?

This.

Dojji · 10-13-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheKilo

If Bay's agent is worth a damn there's no way Bay signs before the FA period.

It'd be unlikely. You're overselling your point at "no way" though.