Bay vs. Holliday

[rhet]

How much will Abreu cost next year?

[Dipre]

Originally Posted by rhet

If it's not 50/50 for the Yanks, it's not 50/50 for the Sox.

I honestly think it is for them too.

[Dipre]

Originally Posted by rhet

How much will Abreu cost next year?

Don't think the Angels will let him go.

[Keeper]

I think you're selling both teams short.

[Dipre]

Originally Posted by Keeper

I think you're selling both teams short.

I might be selling them short. But i think the Tigers and Mets have deep enough pockets to be regarded as serious bidders in this discussion.

Just my honest opinion.

[Dojji]

The Mariners could get in too, depending on how serious they think their chances are.

And the Angels have been spending money like water for years trying to get over the hump, and will have an opening perhaps.

[example1]

Originally Posted by Dojji

.280 is significantly lower, but it's not a bad AVG to have.

Bay is more vulnerable than Holliday, but let's not pretend he's Jack Cust.

This doesn't answer my question, which is really a "where moneyball meets the road" type question. I'm not asking for the difference between them in terms of BA. I can look that up and figure out the difference. I'm asking what that difference MEANS. What does it MEAN that Holliday is a career .318 hitter? He's 57th all time in career BA, 5th among current players. Here's the top 10:

Pujols-.3337
Ichiro-.3328
Helton-.3280
Vlad-.3213
Holliday-.3182
Jeter-.3172
Manny-.3132
Nomar-.3127
Magglio-.3120
Cabrera-.3112
David Wright-.3086
Chipper-.3075
Cano-.3065
A-Rod-.3048
Alou-.3032

That's quite a list of careers. Again though, what does it mean? What difference does it make?

I think it means that Holliday is a great hitter, and that it actually makes a pretty big difference if we assume it is actually reflective of their actual talents rather than something based on sample size. We saw with Victor Martinez what it can mean to get someone with a good OBP and a good AVG, he hits the ball more often and was more aggressive than other players with lower AVGs.

All things being equal, I'll take the guy who has only had one season under .300.

Originally Posted by TheKilo

I have to ask, if we can discredit Holliday's two+ months in Oakland, can wedo the same for Bay's time in Pittsburgh, which is a incredibly difficult place for RHH to hit? If Bay got to hit in Coors, methinks he'd come out on top of this offensive comparison.

I want to be very clear about this: I, for one, am not discrediting Hollidays time in Oakland. I'm actually imploring people to notice: in Oakland he had a .378 OBP and a .831 OPS. By comparison Dustin Pedroia had a .371/.819 line for the whole season.

If when Holliday struggles he is a .378 OBP guy then sign me up. He switched teams and leagues and his OBP held up. That's way more telling than a power dip in a bigger pitcher-friendly ballpark during the first few months of the season.

I'm not advocating Holliday because I don't like Bay. I'm advocating Holliday because looking at his numbers I see a better player. I see someone who, if signed to a big deal and put in Fenway Park, could settle in really well and ultimately mash like he did in Colorado. He will probably take a contract somewhere between what Bay will get and what Teixeira got, but I think he'll be worth it.

[Dipre]

Originally Posted by example1

I'm not advocating Holliday because I don't like Bay. I'm advocating Holliday because looking at his numbers I see a better player. I see someone who, if signed to a big deal and put in Fenway Park, could settle in really well and ultimately mash like he did in Colorado. He will probably take a contract somewhere between what Bay will get and what Teixeira got, but I think he'll be worth it.

This is what i've been trying to say all along.

[Dojji]

Originally Posted by example1

That's quite a list of careers. Again though, what does it mean? What difference does it make?

I think it means that Holliday is a great hitter, and that it actually makes a pretty big difference if we assume it is actually reflective of their actual talents rather than something based on sample size. We saw with Victor Martinez what it can mean to get someone with a good OBP and a good AVG, he hits the ball more often and was more aggressive than other players with lower AVGs.

All things being equal, I'll take the guy who has only had one season under .300.

That's too deep for me. But what it comes down to IMHO is how far you're prepared to go to apologize for batting average and where you start making the call that OBP is the number that's important -- and that the important facets of AVG are reflected in OPS, at which Holliday excels (and where Bay is a fair bit closer)

I'll take a guy who doesn't make a lot of outs and hits for great power. As near as I can see, that's either Bay or Holliday, and while Holliday's a little better, both players are going to earn their large paychecks over at least the next 3 years.

If we can sign one of them, whichever one it is, we probably won't regret it. Me I'm a conservative -- I prefer the familiar, especially since Bay has proven he can perform in Boston and Holliday really hasn't. Bay's consistency as a home run hitter is an asset I'm prepared to give up a bit of OPS for. But if Holliday agrees to sign with us while Bay goes elsewhere, I'm certainly not going to complain.

I want to be very clear about this: I, for one, am not discrediting Hollidays time in Oakland. I'm actually imploring people to notice: in Oakland he had a .378 OBP and a .831 OPS. By comparison Dustin Pedroia had a .371/.819 line for the whole season.

If when Holliday struggles he is a .378 OBP guy then sign me up. He switched teams and leagues and his OBP held up. That's way more telling than a power dip in a bigger pitcher-friendly ballpark during the first few months of the season.

I'm not advocating Holliday because I don't like Bay. I'm advocating Holliday because looking at his numbers I see a better player. I see someone who, if signed to a big deal and put in Fenway Park, could settle in really well and ultimately mash like he did in Colorado. He will probably take a contract somewhere between what Bay will get and what Teixeira got, but I think he'll be worth it.

I don't relaly care that much which one we get. What I don't want to see is people getting so fixated on Holliday that a perfectly good Plan A-2 quietly signs somewhere else because we're too busy going after a "better" player that NYY has a leg up on.

We need to be in on both Bay and Holliday right up to the elbows and sign the first one that agrees. The chance of getting neither is the big thing to guard against, not winding up with the lesser player among two great players..

[Dipre]

I have a question for you example.

Even though i did get quite a bit confrontational, did i not back my argument up with stats and analysis?

[Dojji]

I'll be the first to say that yes, Dipre certainly did back his argument up with facts and analysis.

Did someone say you didn't?

But you backed it up a lot more with personal insults, which made what would have otherwise been an interesting discussion tiresome and frustrating. I wasn't going to say anything, but since you're continuing to make an issue of this I might as well.

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by Dipre

I'll post it here again just for "Shut you up" sake.

I didn't argue my points?

So my proving that career-wise, Holliday having not only a .037 adavantage in OPS, but an advantage in both OBP (.011) and SLG% (.026), plus better defense in LF and out of all the seasons they've both produced, the top two best seasons among them?

Well it's true, then, i apologize.

That' not statistical analysis, that's calling names!

I apologize and promise i won't do it again.

Why can't you simply make these points without resorting to berating Dojji along the way? It's a simple question and it deserves a simple answer.

Citing career numbers does not address Dojji's overall point about consistency on a year to year basis, which was an argument I had not considered until he brought it up, amidst being accused of making "Dojji-type arguments" (whatever that means).

[example1]

Originally Posted by Dojji

That's too deep for me. But what it comes down to IMHO is how far you're prepared to go to apologize for batting average and where you start making the call that OBP is the number that's important -- and that the important facets of AVG are reflected in OPS, at which Holliday excels (and where Bay is a fair bit closer).

Given that we know that OPS is important and that both Bay and Hollliday have similar SLG and OBP, I think it is important to note that :

1) Both players have had long enough careers where we have a good idea of what types of players they are.
2) We can see that there IS a difference between them in AVG, which is more than just a little. 40 pts of career AVG is significant IMO. It isn't necessarily a value judgment, it is just a difference.

If we can sign one of them, whichever one it is, we probably won't regret it. Me I'm a conservative -- I prefer the familiar, especially since Bay has proven he can perform in Boston and Holliday really hasn't. Bay's consistency as a home run hitter is an asset I'm prepared to give up a bit of OPS for. But if Holliday agrees to sign with us while Bay goes elsewhere, I'm certainly not going to complain.

What if the thing that we all agree about, that Holliday is better, is TRUE, and he signs in NY, and puts up .315/.405/.565 for them over the next few years? We will have signed the inferior player and the better player would have gone to our rivals, a team that is aleady better. Net loss. It could be based on erronious thinking that Bay and Holliday are basically interchangable. I bet the Yankees would be less enticed by the prospect of 5 years of Bay than of Holliday and I bet they are really, really hoping the Sox don't drive up the price for Holliday by being interested in him.

I'm frightened by the idea of Teixeira, A-Rod, Holliday for the next 6 years.

I don't relaly care that much which one we get. What I don't want to see is people getting so fixated on Holliday that a perfectly good Plan A-2 quietly signs somewhere else because we're too busy going after a "better" player that NYY has a leg up on.

My stance is that I don't believe that the Yankees will spend "whatever it takes" (my quotes, not yours) to get him. I think they will nonetheless make a competitive offer, but the Sox can hang in the competitive offer range.

The Sox will lose out on him if the Yankees make the "He's a special player" offer and the Sox make the "he's one of a few good players available" offer. In fact, other teams (mentioned by others, above) might make the "he's a special player" offer too, so the Sox will not just be competing with the Yankees.

If the Sox view him as just barely better than Bay, they'll end up with Bay. If they view him as just barely worse than Teixeira, they'll get him. I think there's reason to think he's closer to Teixeira than Bay and I fear that the Sox--if they take the conservative view you eespoused--will get creamed if they settle for Bay... even though Bay is an excellent player.

We need to be in on both Bay and Holliday right up to the elbows and sign the first one that agrees. The chance of getting neither is the big thing to guard against, not winding up with the lesser player among two great players..

I think that if the Yankees get Hollliday then they will win regardless of what the Sox do, unless the Sox make a bigger move for Gonzalez/Felix type player. It isn't about signing the first one that agrees, I think it is about making the one they want agree. Tell Holliday that he'll be the centerpiece of the Sox offense for most of the next decade, right there with Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis. Sell him on being a star in Boston and pay him huge sums of money to do it.

Originally Posted by Dipre

I have a question for you example.

Even though i did get quite a bit confrontational, did i not back my argument up with stats and analysis?

Yes Dipre, your analysis seemed sound to me.

[TheKilo]

No one is saying the analysis wasn't sound. The simple question is why did the constant berating have to accompany it.

I agree with e1 and Dipre in that Holliday is the superior player. The point I was trying to make with the post that got Dipre att upset was the fact that I though Dojji made a sound, solid argument, one that I had never considered before, while being insulted by Dipre. I know Dojji takes a bad rap on this board most of the time, and I'm sure from me a lot, which is why I wanted to commend him for his posts this afternoon.

Nothing more, nothing less.

[example1]

Originally Posted by TheKilo

No one is saying the analysis wasn't sound. The simple question is why did the constant berating have to accompany it.

I agree with e1 and Dipre in that Holliday is the superior player. The point I was trying to make with the post that got Dipre att upset was the fact that I though Dojji made a sound, solid argument, one that I had never considered before, while being insulted by Dipre. I know Dojji takes a bad rap on this board most of the time, and I'm sure from me a lot, which is why I wanted to commend him for his posts this afternoon.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Can you reiterate the argument here, so I can address it (or agree with it?), since I don't want to go back and find it/read through all of the bickering between you and Dipre?

I, for one, like Dojji and have since he got here. People rag on him way too much. He's one of the people that makes this board a good place, even if he's really overenthusiastic about prospects and sometimes says silly things. Overall, he's good in my book.

What do you think about my concerns re: the Yankees getting Holliday?

Do you think that your concerns about Bay (his need to move to DH in the next few years) coupled with the enormous contracts the Yankees gave to Teix and A-Rod, mean that they would be unlikely to pursue Bay as aggressively as Holliday, as they cannot risk tying up the DH position lest A-Rod or Teix need to move there eventually? It seems reasonable to me.

I could see the Yankees being very interested in Holliday if the Sox are stupid enough to just sign whichever signs first (my money is on the non-Boras client, Bay), and not being that interested in Bay at all. I can also see the Yankees getting Bay and ultimately ending up with a logjam of talented hitters trying to get the DH spot.