Will Beckett be in Boston past 2010?

[redsoxrules]

Originally Posted by Lester82

15 days

(but players can officialy file for their free agency the day after the world series concludes.)

its gona be a long 15 days ....

[example1]

Originally Posted by BSN07

Here's what I would offer,

2010- 11M,2011- 13M, 2012- 15.5M, 2013- 16.5M, 2014- 18.5M, Vesting option for 19.5M for 2015.

So it comes out to a 1M more on top of his original raise for 2010. Then 4 yrs 74.5M in extension money, with an obtainable option(or just guarantee it) of 19.5M, making the whole deal 5 years 94M, which is a fair deal IMO.

I think the deal you are proposing is actually 94m/6 years, or 15.6m/year, isn't it? I don't see 5 years 94m, or an AAV of $18.8m when only one of the 5 salaries is above 18.8. That's not how averages work.

As far as I see the math above, this would be a total of 4 yrs/63m, or 5 yrs/83m (with the option). It would assume Beckett makes no real money by signing a season early, and then basically takes a hometown discount. No wonder everyone likes it so much. That's either $15.75m/yr for 4 FA years, or $16.6m/yr for 5 FA years.


A few other points:

1) I think Beckett is at the point in his career where he will be striking it rich immediately and if anything his cost will decrease in the 5th/6th years.
2) I can imagine a contract where 19.5 is the peak price, but I think it would be more like:

2010: 19.5
2011: 19.5
2012: 19.5
2013: 17.5 (w/ bonuses from '11, '12 performances increasing it to)
2014: 17.5 (w/ bonuses)
2015: 18.0 (team and vesting option from 2014 performance)

That's a $112m/6 year deal, or $18.58 per-season.

3) Don't underestimate Beckett's value. The last three years Fangraphs has Beckett as worth $23.9, 22.6, and $26.5 based on his performance. They can afford a $19m deal to bring back one of the game's best pitchers, even if it seems expensive to some. Like I said elsewhere, he is one of only 4 pitchers to be in the top 15 in WAR each year, with Halladay, Sabathia, and Haren.

[example1]

Originally Posted by Dojji

There is no need to panic about Beckett. If this team doesn't tender him a very generous offer to stay in Boston I would be very much surprised. He hasn't been Pedro, but he's a legitimate franchise rotation leader and #1 pitcher.

Especially when that franchise has Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka signed longterm. If they can sign Beckett longterm then they can consider moving Buchholz, which opens up a whole lot of possibilities. Keeping him is obviously a possibility to seriously consider too, but there is no way he should be traded unless they know the plan for Beckett or his top-of-rotation replacement.

[BSN07]

Originally Posted by example1

I think the deal you are proposing is actually 94m/6 years, or 15.6m/year, isn't it? I don't see 5 years 94m, or an AAV of $18.8m when only one of the 5 salaries is above 18.8. That's not how averages work.

As far as I see the math above, this would be a total of 4 yrs/63m, or 5 yrs/83m (with the option). It would assume Beckett makes no real money by signing a season early, and then basically takes a hometown discount. No wonder everyone likes it so much. That's either $15.75m/yr for 4 FA years, or $16.6m/yr for 5 FA years.


A few other points:

1) I think Beckett is at the point in his career where he will be striking it rich immediately and if anything his cost will decrease in the 5th/6th years.
2) I can imagine a contract where 19.5 is the peak price, but I think it would be more like:

2010: 19.5
2011: 19.5
2012: 19.5
2013: 17.5 (w/ bonuses from '11, '12 performances increasing it to)
2014: 17.5 (w/ bonuses)
2015: 18.0 (team and vesting option from 2014 performance)

That's a $112m/6 year deal, or $18.58 per-season.

3) Don't underestimate Beckett's value. The last three years Fangraphs has Beckett as worth $23.9, 22.6, and $26.5 based on his performance. They can afford a $19m deal to bring back one of the game's best pitchers, even if it seems expensive to some. Like I said elsewhere, he is one of only 4 pitchers to be in the top 15 in WAR each year, with Halladay, Sabathia, and Haren.

First off sorry. I screwed up. The 1st thing I did wrong was think Beckett's option was 10M, when it actually is 12M. Why don't I try again

Listen I think he should get an "AJ" type deal. Maybe a little more since he is signing early. As far as I concerned(and maybe I'm wrong) but Beckett and Burnett are great comparisons when it comes to the stats. Beckett having more playoff experience. AJ starting in 1999, Beckett in 2001.

So with that I think Beckett should get a deal for 5 years, @ 16.5 AAV. Maybe add a million more then AJ's AAV(16.5M I believe) for signing early. And Spread it out however. But I think that's a reasonable offer.

[example1]

Originally Posted by BSN07

First off sorry. I screwed up. The 1st thing I did wrong was think Beckett's option was 10M, when it actually is 12M. Why don't I try again

Listen I think he should get an "AJ" type deal. Maybe a little more since he is signing early. As far as I concerned(and maybe I'm wrong) but Beckett and Burnett are great comparisons when it comes to the stats. Beckett having more playoff experience. AJ starting in 1999, Beckett in 2001.

So with that I think Beckett should get a deal for 5 years, @ 16.5 AAV. Maybe add a million more then AJ's AAV(16.5M I believe) for signing early. And Spread it out however. But I think that's a reasonable offer.

Last 3 years WAR:
Burnett: 2.6, 5.5, 3.1: 11.2 WAR (3.73 WAR/Yr)
Beckett: 6.5, 5.0, 5.3: 16.8 WAR (5.60 WAR/Yr)

Beckett has been almost 2 wins better per-season than Burnett has been over the past 3 seasons.

Again, he's one of four pitchers to be in the top 15 each of the past 3 years. The difference between his great years and decent years (2007 and 2009, say) still has him as one of the game's very best pitchers.

If Burnett is worth $16.5m/yr to the Yankees, then they're paying him $4.42m per-Win Above Replacement. By the same cost-per-win, Beckett would have been worth $24.75m to a team like the Yankees.

Even if we dial their value down a few points, he's worth a lot more than Burnett.

If Burnett's value is more accurately assumed to be like $13.5m/yr, then each win would cost $3.62m.

At that price, Beckett would be able to demand $20.72m based on his last 3 seasons.


I think Burnett is a bad comparison both in terms of on-field performance and his current deal, which doesn't really seem like it is actually based on his past performance.

[BSN07]

Originally Posted by example1

Last 3 years WAR:
Burnett: 2.6, 5.5, 3.1: 11.2 WAR (3.73 WAR/Yr)
Beckett: 6.5, 5.0, 5.3: 16.8 WAR (5.60 WAR/Yr)

Beckett has been almost 2 wins better per-season than Burnett has been over the past 3 seasons.

Again, he's one of four pitchers to be in the top 15 each of the past 3 years. The difference between his great years and decent years (2007 and 2009, say) still has him as one of the game's very best pitchers.

If Burnett is worth $16.5m/yr to the Yankees, then they're paying him $4.42m per-Win Above Replacement. By the same cost-per-win, Beckett would have been worth $24.75m to a team like the Yankees.

Even if we dial their value down a few points, he's worth a lot more than Burnett.

If Burnett's value is more accurately assumed to be like $13.5m/yr, then each win would cost $3.62m.

At that price, Beckett would be able to demand $20.72m based on his last 3 seasons.


I think Burnett is a bad comparison both in terms of on-field performance and his current deal, which doesn't really seem like it is actually based on his past performance.

Ok white flag lol. I'll be honest, I only looked at there stat lines that mlb.com have. I didn't go looking into WAR or Vorp(I believe it's actually best left to posters such as your self). You make a fair argument. But in most extensions the player does give up a little money for the long term commitment. Is a 18.5 AAV be a decent deal for both parties?

[example1]

Originally Posted by BSN07

Ok white flag lol. I'll be honest, I only looked at there stat lines that mlb.com have. I didn't go looking into WAR or Vorp(I believe it's actually best left to posters such as your self).

*They are very easy to find
*They boil down to easy numbers
*They are internally consistent
*The lists of best players usually intuitively seems right

I wish more people would use them once in awhile.

Counting and rate stats are nice, but they don't account for so many factors. I would rather have a system that accounts for too many factors rather than ones that account for too few and hope the difference comes out in the wash.

You make a fair argument. But in most extensions the player does give up a little money for the long term commitment. Is a 18.5 AAV be a decent deal for both parties?

He's already done the "extend for less" thing. That's the contract that's ending. I imagine he will want his maximum payday, and he will probably deserve it as much as just about any other player recently.

Think about it this way: if he were coming off of the Mariners or D-Backs right now would you want him? I bet you would, pretty badly. I would too. He would be much more coveted than Jon Lackey is around here, and a lot of us wouldn't be angry to see them spend $16-18m/yr on Lackey.

If the Sox sign him to any longterm deals they will be confident that he's healthy enough to maintain his health throughout. That would be my main concern.

[BSN07]

Originally Posted by example1

*They are very easy to find
*They boil down to easy numbers
*They are internally consistent
*The lists of best players usually intuitively seems right

I wish more people would use them once in awhile.

Counting and rate stats are nice, but they don't account for so many factors. I would rather have a system that accounts for too many factors rather than ones that account for too few and hope the difference comes out in the wash.




He's already done the "extend for less" thing. That's the contract that's ending. I imagine he will want his maximum payday, and he will probably deserve it as much as just about any other player recently.

Think about it this way: if he were coming off of the Mariners or D-Backs right now would you want him? I bet you would, pretty badly. I would too. He would be much more coveted than Jon Lackey is around here, and a lot of us wouldn't be angry to see them spend $16-18m/yr on Lackey.

If the Sox sign him to any longterm deals they will be confident that he's healthy enough to maintain his health throughout. That would be my main concern.

I would be horrified if the Sox spent 16-18M on Lackey. I am not a Lackey guy. I don't see him aging well. I don't see him as the power pitcher most claim him to be.


But besides that I agree with you. I would want Beckett if he's was coming from elsewhere. And probably wouldn't mind him getting a big contract.