Is Clay Buchholz on the verge of being a #1? - Talksox

Lord Snow · 12-01-2012, 02:24 PM

Clay Buchholz has certainly had his struggles in a Red Sox uniform. But last year he was arguably a #1 after he got through the first two months of the season (and if you forget his October start).

June: 4 starts, 30 IP, 25K, 5 BB, 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
July: 4 starts, 29.1 IP, 19K, 7 BB, 2.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP
August: 5 starts, 36.1 IP, 24K, 8 BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP (tattooed for 7 ER in 5 innings on Aug 22)
September: 5 starts, 35.2 IP, 26 K, 13 BB, 3.03 ERA 1.18 WHIP

In all 4 of those months Buchholz averaged over 7 innings pitched per game. His ERA and WHIP were highly respectable.

If he can stay healthy and do that for a whole season he will have a Cy Young award at the end of it.

BSN07 · 12-01-2012, 02:28 PM

He has the potential. I'd be happy if he established himself as a definitive #2.

Behindenemylines · 12-01-2012, 02:35 PM

We need a healthy productive season from Buchholtz. When he is on his game he is very good. He needs to be consistent, and he hasn't proven that he can be yet. Until he does he is a good middle of the rotation pitcher. To climb up to a #1 or #2 spot he has to win 15 to 20 games and consistently go deep into games. Your #1 or# 2 starters you have to be able to pencil them in at the beginning of the season for at least 15 wins and 200 innings. I don't know if we can do that with Buchholtz.

User Name? · 12-01-2012, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Behindenemylines

We need a healthy productive season from Buchholtz. When he is on his game he is very good. He needs to be consistent, and he hasn't proven that he can be yet. Until he does he is a good middle of the rotation pitcher. To climb up to a #1 or #2 spot he has to win 15 to 20 games and consistently go deep into games. Your #1 or# 2 starters you have to be able to pencil them in at the beginning of the season for at least 15 wins and 200 innings. I don't know if we can do that with Buchholtz.

You can't "pencil guys in" for wins, because they're too team dependent, and not a lot of teams have a #2 that can go 200 innings. There's simply not that many 200 IP pitchers in MLB.

What you can and should expect out of a #2 is over 180 IP and decent ERA and peripherals.

Behindenemylines · 12-01-2012, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by User Name?

You can't "pencil guys in" for wins, because they're too team dependent, and not a lot of teams have a #2 that can go 200 innings. There's simply not that many 200 IP pitchers in MLB.

What you can and should expect out of a #2 is over 180 IP and decent ERA and peripherals.

Teams that win and go deep in the playoffs have #1 and #2 that get you around 200 innings. The four teams that made league championship series in 2012:

Tigers: Verlander 238 Sanchez 195
Yanks: CC 200 Kuroda 219
Cards: Lohse 211 Wainright 198
Giants: Cain 219 Bumgarner 208

Until the Sox have that then their SP will be a weak spot.

User Name? · 12-01-2012, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Behindenemylines

Teams that win and go deep in the playoffs have #1 and #2 that get you around 200 innings. The four teams that made league championship series in 2012:

Tigers: Verlander 238 Sanchez 195
Yanks: CC 200 Kuroda 219
Cards: Lohse 211 Wainright 198
Giants: Cain 219 Bumgarner 208

Until the Sox have that then their SP will be a weak spot.

"Around" 200 innings is not 200+ innings.

Also, using one year to validate such a leap-of-faith statement is not valid.

Let's just agree that teams need effective pitching to make it deep into the playoffs.

Dojji · 12-01-2012, 03:29 PM

We've had this thread before, almost word for word, for each of the last 3 years.

My answer now is what it was then. I'll believe it with Buchholz, when I see it. I got screamed down last year when I said Buchholz was an area of concern -- that turned out to be prophetic. I just don't feel it with this guy, no rational reason other than his tendency to become injured, but I've never gotten the sense that he's on the verge of becoming any more than he already is -- a talented but very inconsistent starter that you shouldn't build your franchise around.

jung · 12-01-2012, 03:54 PM

We had a recent thread were we were talking about somebody...Beckectt and Lester and Buch I think. You could argue that those two guys as the guys at the top of the rotation left about 50-60 innings between them for the pen to pitch...that is just between them. You expect your 4 and 5 to leave innings out there. When the guys at the top are leaving innings out there, you are doomed as a bullpen.

Station 13 · 12-01-2012, 04:23 PM

Not even close. First he need to settle at #2 first. He hasn't come close to being a dependable #2.

mvp 78 · 12-01-2012, 09:03 PM

What Dojji said. The thing is, you can't just ignore two months of the season like they're meaningless.

Emmz · 12-01-2012, 09:26 PM

He needs to be more reliable.

Palodios · 12-01-2012, 09:28 PM

*whistles*

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-so...cholz-ace.html

Same exact thread, except with a poll.

Maybe we can merge threads? Mods have been quiet lately.

jung · 12-01-2012, 10:12 PM

I just don't see Buch suddenly emerges as a 200-220 innings pitcher in the ML's. Without being able to draw down those kinds of innings....he is not a 1 anywhere. Either he needs a little vacation in the middle of the season or he breaks down or his stretches of less than solid pitching are just to long or just to numerous through the course of a season. Give it up....ain't gonna' happen.

Lord Snow · 12-02-2012, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Behindenemylines

Teams that win and go deep in the playoffs have #1 and #2 that get you around 200 innings. The four teams that made league championship series in 2012:

Tigers: Verlander 238 Sanchez 195
Yanks: CC 200 Kuroda 219
Cards: Lohse 211 Wainright 198
Giants: Cain 219 Bumgarner 208

Until the Sox have that then their SP will be a weak spot.

Excellent point.

Something that will keep the Red Sox from being an elite team in baseball is their lack of a true ace.

They need to find a young, available, ace and sell the farm to get him. Then lock him up long-term and pray he stays healthy. Felix Hernandez seems to fit the bill as the only "ace" that comes to mind who is not on a top team. David Price is also fits the description but I don't see the Rays shipping him to a division rival so he can beat them 5 times a year.

reYoukalis · 12-02-2012, 01:12 AM

I dont think getting a young, big name is going to happen because there isnt much in the free agent market, and we dont have much to trade except money.

Having said that, is it a coincidence that the starting pitching went to hell after Varitek left, and will that be rectified with Ross?