Bullpen Concerns

[TheKilo]

I'm not concerned with the pen.

Oki, Paps, Aardsma, MDC, and to a lesser extent Lopez have all been good.

if our biggest concerns are the 6th and 7th guys out of the pen, I think we're in good shape. Especially when Hansen and Masterson come up and kick ass.

[Sweet Chin Music33]

Originally Posted by TheKilo

I'm not concerned with the pen.

How bout now?

Now were at 24 games into the season, and if you take Pap and Okis numbers out of there, its pretty disgusting.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Let's look at a few metrics. Others have posted relievers' ERAs, but ERAs are notorious for misrepresenting relief pitchers. Let's try a couple of other things.

First, traditional stats. Bullpens are supposed to save games. How does Boston, as a team, rank regarding saves? The team has nine, tied for third in MLB. That's no problem.

But that's Paps.

Let's check holds. Now, Boston is tied for 19th in MLB with nine. That sounds bad--but AL teams get fewer holds because of the DH rule. Boston is in a three-way tie for 7th place among AL teams, right at the middle of the league.

WXRL is a measure of how many wins a pitcher, or the bullpen, is worth over a AAA pitcher or pitchers. Boston's bullpen as a group is at 1.054 wins, 15th in MLB. Again, using a more-sophisticated metric reflecting the complete bullpen, Boston is average.

Here's what I'm seeing: Papelbon is doing a great job. Combining him with everybody else, or choosing a metric avoiding his contributions, brings the team to average or less. For a contending team, that's probably inadequate.

Why isn't the bullpen thriving?

1) Mike Timlin. His ERA is astronomical, but one can make excuses for an extraordinary BABIP allowed and a high HR/FB ratio. The trouble is, even accounting for those factors he's pitched as if he were a 5.68 ERA relief pitcher (xFIP). One can say "small sample size," but Timlin's 2005-2007 stats were "lucky:" his ERA has been less than his xFIP by a bit more than a run over that whole period. Frankly, Timlin was nearing the range of a AAA pitcher in 2006-2007; another slight decline with age and injury in 2008 has left him below that level.

Sadly, Mike Timlin needs to leave. Perhaps he could be enticed into a coaching job at the same salary of his MLB contract through 2008, and he could retire...but he's got to go.

2) Manny Delcarmen. Look, I don't think that MDC is doing any worse than he did in 2007, but he's getting average vice superlative support from his fielders and he's had bad luck with fly balls leaving the park. Furthermore, his mistakes have been ill-timed: his failure to hold leads has been as costly as the bullpen work of Timlin and Tavarez combined. I see this as a case of bad luck and unrealistic expectations for Delcarmen, not a reason to trade or release him. Still, his work has hurt the team.

3) Kyle Snyder. I hope that Snyder recovers in AAA Pawtucket. He's right where he needs to be.

Besides that, Boston has a good set-up/closer duo, two capable seventh-inning guys (Aardsma and Lopez), and a veteran swing man in Julian Tavarez. Ditching Timlin for something better--my vote for "something better" being the now-well-rested Craig Hansen--along with a return to career norms for MDC--should bring the bullpen back to playoff-caliber, albeit not domination.

[One Red Seat]

I agree, JHB. The first move that needs to happen to try and right the ship re: middle relief is getting Timlin to walk off in the sunset and replace him with Hansen. There's more than that move that needs to happen, though. I think the FO needs to convince Francona to treat the Hansen/Lopez/Aardsma/Tavarez combo with a very short leash. When these guys are effective, it is usually evident from the way they pitch to the first batter they see.

[Sweet Chin Music33]

Agree with most, disagree with Lopez. Hes awful, I dont care what his numbers say this season orwhatever.....h really is brutal.

I hope for the best with MDC, he grows increasingly frustrating to watch.

The things about the pen that bother me are:
1. Mike Timlin for your previous stated research.
2.Javier Lopez, because he does not deserve to have the role he has on a championship caliber team.
3. The mediocrity of MDC, who clearly possess all of the tools to dominate.


Tavarez is what he is....Aardsma has done well. The three above mentioned drive me crazy though.

[ACL BoSox]

Last year convinced me that tavarez needs to find a new line of work, and timlin needs to retire.

There, that's two bullpen headaches we can work on getting rid of.

Lopez is good for the occassional lefty-lefty matchup, but gets way overused.

I don't know what MDC's problem is, he's got the tools and yet he continues to get himself into trouble all the time. You can say the same about Hansen now after the other day's performance.

Aardsma I actually like, so long as he isn't overused. Bryan Corey is meh... wouldn't trust him in a big spot but he's serviceable.

The Sox need to add a power arm to the bullpen, ditch the first two guys I mentioned, and reduce the roles of everyone else is the bullpen sans Papelbon & Okajima.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Trivia factoids regarding Javier Lopez:

1) His career first-half ERA is 6.67, but his career second-half ERA is 1.99, over a sample of 118 IP and 63 IP, respectively.

2) His career ERA in Fenway Park is 3.15 in 40 IP.

[One Red Seat]

Originally Posted by Sweet Chin Music33

Agree with most, disagree with Lopez. Hes awful, I dont care what his numbers say this season orwhatever.....h really is brutal.

I hope for the best with MDC, he grows increasingly frustrating to watch.

The things about the pen that bother me are:
1. Mike Timlin for your previous stated research.
2.Javier Lopez, because he does not deserve to have the role he has on a championship caliber team.
3. The mediocrity of MDC, who clearly possess all of the tools to dominate.


Tavarez is what he is....Aardsma has done well. The three above mentioned drive me crazy though.

I disagree about Lopez. He's frustrating as hell because he's so inconsistent, but he does show flashes of effectiveness. He was very good late in the game Wednesday, which probably brought on his usage and the trust Francona had with him on Thursday. The problem as I see it concerning Lopez is that Francona seems to trust him more than his inconsistency should warrant.

If Francona is unable to overcome this tendancy he has with Lopez, then perhaps it would be best if the FO removes him as an option, like they need to do with Timlin.

[Sweet Chin Music33]

Originally Posted by One Red Seat

I disagree about Lopez. He's frustrating as hell because he's so inconsistent, but he does show flashes of effectiveness. He was very good late in the game Wednesday, which probably brought on his usage and the trust Francona had with him on Thursday. The problem as I see it concerning Lopez is that Francona seems to trust him more than his inconsistency should warrant.

If Francona is unable to overcome this tendancy he has with Lopez, then perhaps it would be best if the FO removes him as an option, like they need to do with Timlin.

I dont think that flashes of effectiveness serves the Redsox best. Flashes of excellence is good on a average to good team, but not a team with a roster full of guys who have a chance at the champioship. Hes good in non pressure situations, but a team with champioship dreams makes him replaceable. I wont speculate, but there has got to be options out there better than Lopez and Timlin.

EDIT: I agree with the second part of your post.

Either way, giving up a game in which your starter gives up 1 er in 6 innings is inexcusable....especially if your offense scored you 5.

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by Sweet Chin Music33

I dont think that flashes of effectiveness serves the Redsox best. Flashes of excellence is good on a average to good team, but not a team with a roster full of guys who have a chance at the champioship.

Funny, they won a championship with these guys last season.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Keith Foulke
Rudy Seanez
Lenny DiNardo
Kevin Jarvis
Jermaine Van Buren
Craig Breslow
David Riske
Joel Pinerio
Brendan Donnelly
JC Romero
Eric Gagne
Kyle Snyder
Matt Mantei
Alan Embree
Mike Myers
John Halama
Chad Bradford
Blaine Neal
Mike Remlinger

Just some names from our bullpen in the last few years....I think it's safe to say our bullpen will turn over this season. Consider in 2007 we started with Joel Pinerio, JC Romero, and Brendan Donnelly....finished with Eric Gagne, Javier Lopez, and Manny Delcarmen.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Have I mentioned to this forum yet that I believe that John Henry is Nosferatu?

I mean, it makes sense: he's tall, bony, and a whiter shade of pale; we never see him in the sunlight, only indoors or at night; he made his fortune by seemingly exerting an almost mystical control over the financial markets; and he's an associate of Larry Lucchino, whom we all know to be the spawn of Satan.

And now, it seems that John Henry has used his young apprentice, the oddly-charismatic Theo Epstein, to raise Bryan Corey from the dead.

A few Bryan Corey stats:

PECOTA-projected ERA: 4.64
Actual 2008 ERA: 10.50

Let me use insight I've gleaned from decades of sabermetric analysis to explain the subtleties and ramifications of these numbers:

1) He's not expected to be good.
2) He's doing worse than expected.

It's tough to blame Bryan Corey--heck, he's even starting to look a little bit pale, white, and undead.

It's easy, however, to blame Theo Epstein and the front office. There are choices that might work: they could bring up a hot prospect, gambling development to give them a current chance in the bullpen in low-leverage low-stress situations; they could bring up an older, career minor leaguer of unknown MLB value and see what he could do; they could try to trade with a team already falling from contention for bullpen help. Instead, they're choosing to use Bryan Corey, a guy who clearly demonstrated his mediocrity over a season in Pawtucket last year* and who is showing further decline with age this year.

Boston needs to use one of these other options. Returning a player claimed by nobody as he passed waivers to the MLB roster mere days later is futile--with time, he might "find himself," but he clearly hasn't done that.

***

Mike Timlin was on the DL earlier this season. I had thought that he was on the "Disabled List," but his performance since his return has demonstrated that he was probably on the "Dead List" instead.

A few Mike Timlin stats:

PECOTA-projected ERA: 4.36
Actual 2008 ERA: 13.50

Analysis:

1) He's not expected to be very good.
2) He's doing much worse than expected.

He's got to go.

***

Options: Lee Gronkiewicz is looking good at Pawtucket, and it's now or never for a pitcher his age; Hansen had moments of brilliance mixed with minutes of frustration in his recent appearance--and that's better than Corey or Timlin can do.

Plus, of course, Theo Epstein has a telephone, and there are already a half-dozen teams who might be looking to ditch reliable, more-or-less average relief pitchers for a "B" grade prospect, salary relief, and a roster spot for their youngsters. The Red Sox are contending, and Spring games count--we need to make a move.

***

One last thought...has anybody else noticed that JD Drew is looking pale, thin, and drawn, and that he's been sleeping in this weird chamber? Just sayin...






* If a 33-year-old cannot dominate AAA, where the younger minor leaguers are still learning, he's going to be hit badly in MLB.

[ksushi]

I'm curious what you guys think of hansen after a peak this season. I thought his stuff looked worlds better than in any previous call up. The home run, IMO, was a better example of good hitting than it was of bad pitching. Either way, its not what you like to see from a guy who needs to bounce back and get his career in the majors back on track. I loved the way he was using his slider and that velocity is very impressive still. I think Hansen might be ready for a more lengthy cup of coffee.

[TheKilo]

Originally Posted by ksushi

I'm curious what you guys think of hansen after a peak this season. I thought his stuff looked worlds better than in any previous call up. The home run, IMO, was a better example of good hitting than it was of bad pitching. Either way, its not what you like to see from a guy who needs to bounce back and get his career in the majors back on track. I loved the way he was using his slider and that velocity is very impressive still. I think Hansen might be ready for a more lengthy cup of coffee.

Loved what I saw from Hansen the other night....that slider looked unhittable.

When can we have Timlin go the way of Old Yeller?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by TheKilo

Loved what I saw from Hansen the other night....that slider looked unhittable.

I checked the Pitch f/x log. You're right: Hansen used two pitches, his slider and his fastball. The slider was never hit into fair territory, and it was the out pitch for the recorded strikeouts.