Bullpen Concerns

[Jayhawk Bill]

Originally Posted by CrespoBlows

Khali Greene.

You know, though, maybe he could pitch better than Bryan Corey...

[RobZombie]

In all seriousness the Red Sox have traded prospects for a reliever three times in the Theo era. Its kinda worked out once (Williamson). As we've seen veteran relievers can fall off the cliff pretty quickly even late in the season. It may happen even more this year with decreased steroid use.

Gammons on the radio has said that the Sox would be hard pressed to get someone on the open market with better stuff than MDC and Hansen.

They have the solutions on the team. They just have to wait to see them work themselves out as opposed to making a desperate move. My bet is that by the end of the season, both guys are very good options at the back end of games.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Who's our best relief pitcher so far this season?

Javier Lopez.



Yup, Javier Lopez.

How do I reach this conclusion? By checking WXRL. WXRL is a measure of the change in Win Expectation during a pitcher's outings above that expected from a Replacement-level pitcher, adjusted for strength of opposing lineups. Note that this metric gives great credit for holding tight late-inning leads and and even greater penalty for blowing those leads, even if runners left by other pitchers score the actual game-changing runs. It's who's on the mound that counts.

Here are the stats thus far for 2008:

NAME	WXRL (Wins)	LEV
Javier Lopez	0.77	1.15
Hideki Okajima	0.54	1.68
Jonathan Papelbon	0.50	1.77
David Aardsma	0.49	0.80
Bryan Corey	0.08	0.86
Julian Tavarez	-0.28	0.34
Kyle Snyder	-0.29	1.26
Mike Timlin	-0.53	1.16
Craig Hansen	-0.54	1.13
Manny Delcarmen	-0.59	0.91
Total	0.15	1.00*

The entire Boston bullpen, as a group, has been 0.15 wins better than a bunch of ten AAA call-ups thus far in 2008.

That's terrible. It's also probably not indicative of the bullpen's talent. Disregarding the stats of Corey, Tavarez and Snyder, all of whom are gone, raises the sum WXRL to 0.65, half a win better. We also know that we're taking a snapshot of Jon Papelbon at his worst moment: he would've been closer to 2.50 WXRL if not for those two fluke blown saves.

But flukes count in the stats.

Let's face it, relief pitching has been a problem for Boston in 2008. Let's also take heart in realizing that this is an area where we can expect to do much, much better the rest of the way, even without the Front Office's making a trade. Last year Papelbon, Okajima, Lopez, Delcarmen and Timlin were worth 13.3 WXRL over the course of the year. Expecting a third that much from the bullpen from now through September would mean a Boston team winning 99 games instead of the 95 games one might project from our current standings. Expecting just two-thirds of last year's production--expecting our relief pitchers to match, not to exceed, what they did last year--would result in 103 wins for Boston, all other factors held constant.

***

Our bullpen has sucked thus far. They're still good pitchers, though, and we're still a very good team.




* a leverage index of 1.00 defines the beginning of a game; the mean of Boston relief pitchers' LEV is different and less relevant.

[dowling25]

I think you stick with MDC and Hansen this year. I feel they will be able to do something as the year progresses......Hopefully.

[yeszir]

Timlin and his near 7 ERA need to go.

It might be a good way to get Bucholz back in the swing of things, pitching some innings of relief

[ksushi]

Originally Posted by dowling25

I think you stick with MDC and Hansen this year. I feel they will be able to do something as the year progresses......Hopefully.

I think we need a third solid reliever. It could be one of those two, but I don't know if it is MDC or bust and if we're looking down the barrell of Hansen or Bust, I don't think we're a playoff team. Wake and Masterson can both be put in the bullpen. Initially, Masterson projected as a reliever, a short-term conversion to that role wouldn't keep him from starting in the future. They did it with Pap with all intentions originally of having him be a starter, it gave him experience in the bigs (and playoffs), which helped his development for sure. It also gave the club a major boost. Masterson could be similar.

This is a long shot to say the least, but, if Daniel Bard toys with AA hitters like he did in A, a swift promotion to AAA could be in order. A 100mph fastball, when spotted, is effective at any level. But, like I said, serious long shot. I like Hansen and MDC to turn it around way more than I like Bard to make it to the bigs, but I wouldn't say its 100% out of the question yet. MDC was nice last night, so all this might be moot.

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now, Masterson may end up being in your rotation for a bit, so converting him to the pen is likely a poor idea. Until you know when DiceK is coming back for sure, you dont convert him. Also, you guys have a guy in Colon occupying a spot in the rotation who has had problems with endurance as the season wears along, so having an emergency starter like Masterson is a boon. Also, Schill is actually throwing so if he can fill in as the emergency starter then moving Masterson to the pen potentially can help. I do think Masterson will be in your pen for the playoffs though. His sinker-slurve (looked like a slurve on TV) is solid.

[ksushi]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

Right now, Masterson may end up being in your rotation for a bit, so converting him to the pen is likely a poor idea. Until you know when DiceK is coming back for sure, you dont convert him. Also, you guys have a guy in Colon occupying a spot in the rotation who has had problems with endurance as the season wears along, so having an emergency starter like Masterson is a boon. Also, Schill is actually throwing so if he can fill in as the emergency starter then moving Masterson to the pen potentially can help. I do think Masterson will be in your pen for the playoffs though. His sinker-slurve (looked like a slurve on TV) is solid.

I don't think anyone should be concerned about our rotation. Right now, we have seven starters including Masterson, and eight if you include Curt Schilling who might possibly come back. We can get by if Dice-K needs to miss time, Masterson won't be the first guy we would turn to either. Right now, there is a pressing need in our bullpen, I don't think it will happen today or tomorrow, but this regular season Masterson will be in our pen.

[TheKilo]

Regarding Bard - I'd like to see him have some sustained success against AA batters first...but who knows, Joba redux?

[ksushi]

Right, obviously, he hasn't been in AA for long but the early results are good and his fastball is crazy. Hit 101 earlier this year. Freak.

[jacksonianmarch]

Originally Posted by ksushi

I don't think anyone should be concerned about our rotation. Right now, we have seven starters including Masterson, and eight if you include Curt Schilling who might possibly come back. We can get by if Dice-K needs to miss time, Masterson won't be the first guy we would turn to either. Right now, there is a pressing need in our bullpen, I don't think it will happen today or tomorrow, but this regular season Masterson will be in our pen.

I wouldnt be so sure...

Lets say DiceK is out for an extended period of time, which when making contingency plans, you must assume the worst.

That leaves you with...

Beckett
Colon
Wakefield
Lester
....

Right now, the sox are actually moving Mastersons start back to get him right in line with DiceK's start, essentially meaning that right now, Masterson is considered the favorite for DiceK's start. Now lets assume that Masterson isnt in the sox plans as a starter for a long time this yr. Lets say that Buchholz eventually takes the spot the second time around. That leaves you with...

Beckett
Colon
Wake
Lester
Buchholz

and Masterson in the minors. Schilling is throwing, but is so far from a sure bet to make it from the majors that he cannot even be on the radar screen right now. So therefore, its those 5 with Masterson as the 6th starter sitting in AAA and DiceK out for an extended period of time with arm issues. Looking at the recent history, Colon's shoulder holds out for around 10 or so starts before it goes to crap. Therefore, Masterson in the starter's role is necessary in the event that Colon goes down.

As the season goes along, these contingency plans can get modified. If Colon continues to throw well and doesnt tire, then you have a spot secure. If DiceK's arm is solid and he comes back and is dominant again, then you have another spot secure. If Schill beats the odds and comes back as a reliable 6th starter then the contingency spot is secure. THAT is when you move Masterson to the pen. But for right now, there is a chance that JMast sees a lot of time in your rotation, and that chance will keep him from getting transitioned for awhile.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I wouldnt be so sure...

Lets say DiceK is out for an extended period of time, which when making contingency plans, you must assume the worst.

That leaves you with...

Beckett
Colon
Wakefield
Lester
....

Right now, the sox are actually moving Mastersons start back to get him right in line with DiceK's start, essentially meaning that right now, Masterson is considered the favorite for DiceK's start. Now lets assume that Masterson isnt in the sox plans as a starter for a long time this yr. Lets say that Buchholz eventually takes the spot the second time around. That leaves you with...

Beckett
Colon
Wake
Lester
Buchholz

and Masterson in the minors. Schilling is throwing, but is so far from a sure bet to make it from the majors that he cannot even be on the radar screen right now. So therefore, its those 5 with Masterson as the 6th starter sitting in AAA and DiceK out for an extended period of time with arm issues. Looking at the recent history, Colon's shoulder holds out for around 10 or so starts before it goes to crap. Therefore, Masterson in the starter's role is necessary in the event that Colon goes down.

As the season goes along, these contingency plans can get modified. If Colon continues to throw well and doesnt tire, then you have a spot secure. If DiceK's arm is solid and he comes back and is dominant again, then you have another spot secure. If Schill beats the odds and comes back as a reliable 6th starter then the contingency spot is secure. THAT is when you move Masterson to the pen. But for right now, there is a chance that JMast sees a lot of time in your rotation, and that chance will keep him from getting transitioned for awhile.

Based on the Red Sox depth in the rotation and the amount of quality arms...I don't see the Red Sox abusing any of them. Clay Buchholz has a finger nail problem and he goes right on the DL. Dice K has a tired arm (which I promise he can still pitch if they asked him) is going to miss a start or two. Bartolo Colon was able to take off over a month before we decided to get him involved...any setbacks and they won't hestitate to give him a DL stint. Thats the beauty of depth...you don't need to push any of them.

[ksushi]

Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch

I wouldnt be so sure...

Lets say DiceK is out for an extended period of time, which when making contingency plans, you must assume the worst.

That leaves you with...

Beckett
Colon
Wakefield
Lester
....

If DiceK is out for an extended period of time right now that leaves us with : Beckett, Colon, Lester, Wakefield and Buchholz all at the major league level and I feel 100% comfortable with that rotation. All major league quality arms, all capable of giving us a chance to win night in and night out, and until we are told otherwise, all are healthy. If you're going to argue about Clays fingernail.... well, I'll just assume you won't and give you the benefit of the doubt.

Right now, the sox are actually moving Mastersons start back to get him right in line with DiceK's start, essentially meaning that right now, Masterson is considered the favorite for DiceK's start. Now lets assume that Masterson isnt in the sox plans as a starter for a long time this yr. Lets say that Buchholz eventually takes the spot the second time around. That leaves you with...

Beckett
Colon
Wake
Lester
Buchholz

and Masterson in the minors. Schilling is throwing, but is so far from a sure bet to make it from the majors that he cannot even be on the radar screen right now. So therefore, its those 5 with Masterson as the 6th starter sitting in AAA and DiceK out for an extended period of time with arm issues. Looking at the recent history, Colon's shoulder holds out for around 10 or so starts before it goes to crap. Therefore, Masterson in the starter's role is necessary in the event that Colon goes down.

As the season goes along, these contingency plans can get modified. If Colon continues to throw well and doesnt tire, then you have a spot secure. If DiceK's arm is solid and he comes back and is dominant again, then you have another spot secure. If Schill beats the odds and comes back as a reliable 6th starter then the contingency spot is secure. THAT is when you move Masterson to the pen. But for right now, there is a chance that JMast sees a lot of time in your rotation, and that chance will keep him from getting transitioned for awhile.

I guess I just don't see eye to eye with you here. I think given the depth of our farm system and that of our current roster, we can easily afford to put Masterson in the bullpen. All of your speculation is under the assumption that DiceK is out for a long time when we don't know that is the case, but even if he is we have 5 major league quality arms to fill the rotation not counting masterson and the potential return of schilling. It is a move we can afford to make and most likely will. I'll take you're skepticism as a sign of fear that the sox can right their bullpen.

My biggest concern about the sox as currently constituted is the offense.

[Sweet Chin Music33]

My concern is still the pen.

We have enough arms in the rotation, but the pen has sucked ass.

The lineup is going through a funk, they will pull out of it.....the pen however, just has too many question marks besides the 8th and 9th innings.

[rician blast]

SCM, I would tend to agree with the assessment regarding the offense. I think they're too good not to break out in the heat of June, July, and August...that's my gut talking anyway.