When does Clay get sent down? - Talksox

One Red Seat · 05-12-2008, 10:26 PM

No, this isn't a reactionary post due to his poor performance tonight. This isn't about a demotion. Given his expected workload coming into the season, he's going to have to go down at some point. In a perfect world, I think that time would be now as he's struggled with command, particularly of the FB, in the last two outings. Unfortunately, his probably replacement, Bartolo Colon, isn't stretched out to come up right now.

They play 2, have a day off, then play 14 straight. Bart pitched 3 IP (49 pitches) on Saturday, 5/10. Clay's rotation spot will come up again on 5/18 at home against MIL. Not enough time to pitch Bart again on Thursday 5/15 and then replace Clay. His next start would be 5/23 in Oakland. Bart should be stretched out after his 5/20 start, so I suggest they make the move after the 23rd (provided there are no setbacks - regardless of Clay's performance in those two games).

Jayhawk Bill · 05-12-2008, 10:38 PM

Check the Game Thread. Almost half (40%) of his pitches that should've been called strikes were called balls instead, and no pitch just outside the strike zone was a called strike.

I say that we keep Buchholz up for a while.

One Red Seat · 05-12-2008, 10:43 PM

What's in the gamethread matches what I saw in the game. That said, while he did get royally screwed on the call vs. the location, he wasn't hitting his spots. The catcher's glove moved often and by more than a little. Combine that with a need to limit his workload as part of his development, and I still think the time will be after the 23rd, provided Colon has no setbacks.

ksushi · 05-12-2008, 11:15 PM

If he is going to be successful at the major league level he is going to have to have better fastball command than what he has now. Thats usually the story guys fresh out of the minor leagues. You get away with it in AAA, you don't in the majors. At least not for any extended stretch of time. Regardless of whether he was screwed, or the balls had eyes, giving up 10 & 8 hits in back to back starts is not a good sign. Giving up 5+ ER in back to back starts is also not a good sign. There are about 101 reasons to be optimistic about clay for the future, and the future could be this season. The future could be an august call up, but I agree with ORS, it makes sense regardless of his success - or lack thereof - to make the move after the 23rd.

Thumper · 05-13-2008, 12:12 AM

I think once Colon is ready, and activated, that will be when Buchholz is sent down.

Jayhawk Bill · 05-13-2008, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ksushi

If he is going to be successful at the major league level he is going to have to have better fastball command than what he has now. Thats usually the story guys fresh out of the minor leagues. You get away with it in AAA, you don't in the majors. At least not for any extended stretch of time. Regardless of whether he was screwed, or the balls had eyes, giving up 10 & 8 hits in back to back starts is not a good sign. Giving up 5+ ER in back to back starts is also not a good sign. There are about 101 reasons to be optimistic about clay for the future, and the future could be this season. The future could be an august call up, but I agree with ORS, it makes sense regardless of his success - or lack thereof - to make the move after the 23rd.

Keep in mind that he gave up hits last night largely because he only got strikes called on pitches through the dead center of the zone. MLB hitters do pretty well if they know that they own the corners.

Mr Crunchy · 05-13-2008, 08:47 AM

hes ok
his era is 5.5 and this is with him not getting out of the 5th in his last 2 starts
patience,give him a chance to get some confidence..

ksushi · 05-13-2008, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jayhawk Bill

Keep in mind that he gave up hits last night largely because he only got strikes called on pitches through the dead center of the zone. MLB hitters do pretty well if they know that they own the corners.

I know. I get that. When you're strike zone is the size of a quarter in the middle of the zone its tough. Do you think it is a coincidence though that from start to start his zone is squeezed? It's because umpires notice he has no fastball command so they make him work for his strikes. That's baseball.

Jayhawk Bill · 05-13-2008, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ksushi

I know. I get that. When you're strike zone is the size of a quarter in the middle of the zone its tough. Do you think it is a coincidence though that from start to start his zone is squeezed? It's because umpires notice he has no fastball command so they make him work for his strikes. That's baseball.

Those aren't the official rules of baseball. Do fast runners get the benefit of the doubt at first base? Do Gold Glovers get one bounce on fly balls? Would we accept that?

I know how the game is called...heck, I've been a player or a fan for twice as long as you've been alive. I even know the tendency of ball calls to increase with wildness in MLB in 2007: it's a difference of an extra 0.15 runs per game for pitchers averaging over 42% balls in the first two innings, and 0.15 runs is roughly equal to one extra ball call.* Why so low? Because most top-notch professional umpires DO NOT call balls and strikes that way: they call the defined strike zone. It's their job.

What we've come to expect from lower-level umpires or pre-QuesTec/Pitch f/x MLB umpires need not continue and should not be tolerated. Most umpires have "seen the writing on the wall" and have adjusted their game calling to make it as accurate as possible. Derryl Cousins called a different strike zone for Clay Buchholz than for any other pitcher last night. I don't accept that bias, and I'm surprised that you would.

* Research by Dan Turkenkopf

ksushi · 05-13-2008, 01:58 PM

My brother is an umpire in the minors, my best friends dad is an umpire in the major leagues. Anecdotally, I know how they operate. They aren't the official rules, but rookies have to earn the corners. They have to develop a reputation in the bigs before they get the calls. Especially when someone consistently has trouble spotting their fastball, they don't get the benefit of the doubt. Umps rep partly based on reputation. Regardless of how much research you and your buddy dan wanna do, its what happens.

edited post to make people happy:

I don't accept the bias, there just isn't really much a way to change it. Some umpires feel like baseball gate keepers and you have to earn their strike calls. It sucks, sure, but the reason it doesn't bother me very much is that a lot of my love of the game comes from the human error involved in it. Umpires aren't perfect. Bias and blown calls come with the territory of giving umpires total control of the judgement of the game. I just accept it as part of the game.

TheKilo · 05-13-2008, 03:44 PM

Clay's peripheral numbers are actually pretty good. He's been the unlucky to DiceK's lucky this season.

That said, he is on an innings limit. Send him down when Colon is ready. That way, you see what you have in Colon and can make a move when necessary. Hopefully he and Masterson are up by August to help out and Timlin and Lopez are gone by then.

ksushi · 05-13-2008, 03:56 PM

Bert Blyleven was the twins broadcaster last night, I don't know if he always is, but I happened to watch on mlb.tv last night cause I was at work, and he was very impressed with Buchholz all night. He has sone fine tuning. I think that structured innings in the minor leagues to work on keeping his weight back and finishing his pitches will make him a huge addition to the staff come august. No numbers or research or other crap will convince me otherwise. Just like every minor league pitcher to come, I am the first to don the pom poms and start cheerleading for them, and Buchholz is no different. Loved him when we drafted him, had incredible numbers in college - so none of this is to say I don't think he is doing well, he has been unlucky, but he needs a send down as soon as it makes sense. Right now, if he can learn to finish his pitches and put his fastball in better spots, he could be dominant this season.

One Red Seat · 05-13-2008, 04:04 PM

I'm confused, ksushi. Are you actually advocating a preferential strikezone? JHB has acknowledged that one exists, but suggests it shouldn't. Your counterpoint is that's just the way it is. He, I, and others realize that is the current way things work. We just happen to disagree with it in practice. For you to counterpoint further, you would need to advocate such a situation. Do you?

ksushi · 05-13-2008, 04:17 PM

I didn't read his entire post. You just exist to point out that I'm a lazy reader don't you. honestly, I read one sentence of JHBs posts, scan for numbers, find them, don't bother to read, and post. my post is edited at the bottom if you care to read it, now that you know I've actually done my homework you probably don't. Which is fine too. Basically I just accept umpires miscalls and bias as part of the game.

I'm not advocating for a preferential strike zone, I just realize there isn't anything to be done about it and don't really care either way. It is the way it is, and probably won't ever change unless the game is umpired by computers or something. Its part of human error, which is a big part of baseball.

Jayhawk Bill · 05-13-2008, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ksushi

I didn't read his entire post...honestly, I read one sentence of JHBs posts, scan for numbers, find them, don't bother to read, and post.

Kudos for honesty.

Quote:

I'm not advocating for a preferential strike zone, I just realize there isn't anything to be done about it and don't really care either way. It is the way it is, and probably won't ever change unless the game is umpired by computers or something. Its part of human error, which is a big part of baseball.

Human error differs from bias.