While a thread exists about an expected Yankees' offensive regression, it hasn't been posted in for awhile, and to spark some discussion in the middle of January, I figured I would start a separate thread. I hope none of the moderators have an issue with this, and if it's a big deal, feel free to merge it.
Now that I have a bit of time, lets take a look at how the 2010 lineup compares to the 2009 lineup, going spot by spot. While it's an impossibility, I'll assume that everyone stays relatively healthy, because we simply aren't able to accurately predict injuries. For example, one might say that you cannot expect Nick Johnson to stay healthy, but someone else could say that by he's prone to the freak injury, and only playing DH will dramatically decrease the odds of that occurring. Both are valid arguments, and we just don't know, so we'll look at the lineup from a healthy perspective...
1)
2009 - Derek Jeter
2010 - Derek Jeter
I think a regression here is quite likely. He's coming off an unexpected career year, and while he's likely to remain productive in 2010, I don't see him replicating a .334/.406/.465 slash line.
2)
2009 - Johnny Damon
2010 - Nick Johnson
If Johnson can stay healthy, I don't think they'll see a drop off from the number two spot in the lineup. NYS is likely to improve Johnson's power numbers, and even if they don't reach Damon's (which is likely), he'll make up for it by getting on base more often than Damon did. I think the production will be relatively similar, and I think Johnson has a shot to be even better than Damon was. Also, it should be noted that Johnson, unlike Damon, won't be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks.
3)
2009 - Mark Teixeira
2010 - Mark Teixeira
Anything is possible, but more than likely (and especially if he benefits from a full season of A-Rod behind him) we'll see similar production from out of the three spot.
4)
2009 - Alex Rodriguez (with a little Cody Ransom/Ramiro Pena thrown in)
2010 - Alex Rodriguez
If A-Rod stays healthy, the Yankees should get more production out of the cleanup spot in 2010 than they did in 2009, considering A-Rod missed the first 28 games last year and clearly wasn't healthy for awhile after coming back.
5)
2009 - Hideki Matsui
2010 - Curtis Granderson
The fifth spot in this lineup is really a mystery. Granderson will likely match Matsui's home run total from last year, but how much he gets on base is a mystery. It will probably be a bit worse, but if Granderson can rebound from last year, which isn't unrealistic, he could come fairly close. Granderson will also be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks and will never have to be removed for a pinch runner late in the game. Granderson will also be able to do much more once he gets on base than Matsui was able to do.
6)
2009 - Jorge Posada
2010 - Jorge Posada
Posada had one of the better years of his career last year, and he's getting up in age, which probably puts him in a similar boat as Jeter. He might regress some, but if he stays healthy, and the Yankees give him the appropriate amount of rest, I don't expect the drop off to be too severe.
7)
2009 - Robinson Cano
2010 - Robinson Cano
Like Granderson, Cano is a mystery. Coming off a bad 2008 season, he was very good last year, and his ridiculous splits with RISP should even out a bit this year. I don't expect him to regress much, and an improvement is possible. It wouldn't shock me if Cano is hitting fifth at some point in 2010.
8)
2009 - Nick Swisher
2010 - Nick Swisher
Coming off a career year, Swisher's overall numbers are likely to drop a bit, but while his road numbers are unsustainable, he should see a significant improvement in his home numbers. Again, a regression is probable, but with his splits evening out, it shouldn't be too severe.
9)
2009 - Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner
2010 - Brett Gardner/possible a RHH
I think they should see a slight improvement here. Gardner's numbers weren't that far behind Cabrera's last year, and with more playing time, he might be able to work his way closer to a 100 OPS+. Also, when you consider what Gardner does on the base paths, and the possibility that they'll have a lefty/righty platoon out of this spot, an improvement is probably likely. At the very least, the production should be similar.
So to recap...
1) Probably a regression.
2) Similar.
3) Similar.
4) Improvement.
5) Probably a regression in the on base department, but when you consider the difference between the two players on the bases, and Granderson's potential, similar production (or even an increase in production) is possible.
6) If used correctly, probably only a slight regression.
7) Anything is possible out of this spot, but a slight improvement wouldn't shock me.
8) Probably a regression.
9) Probably a slight improvement.
Overall, I would say this lineup is built to produce in a similar fashion as last year's lineup.
It should be noted that there are obvious factors that could change this. Among those are injuries and the return of Johnny Damon.