The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

[yankees228]

While a thread exists about an expected Yankees' offensive regression, it hasn't been posted in for awhile, and to spark some discussion in the middle of January, I figured I would start a separate thread. I hope none of the moderators have an issue with this, and if it's a big deal, feel free to merge it.

Now that I have a bit of time, lets take a look at how the 2010 lineup compares to the 2009 lineup, going spot by spot. While it's an impossibility, I'll assume that everyone stays relatively healthy, because we simply aren't able to accurately predict injuries. For example, one might say that you cannot expect Nick Johnson to stay healthy, but someone else could say that by he's prone to the freak injury, and only playing DH will dramatically decrease the odds of that occurring. Both are valid arguments, and we just don't know, so we'll look at the lineup from a healthy perspective...

1)

2009 - Derek Jeter
2010 - Derek Jeter

I think a regression here is quite likely. He's coming off an unexpected career year, and while he's likely to remain productive in 2010, I don't see him replicating a .334/.406/.465 slash line.

2)

2009 - Johnny Damon
2010 - Nick Johnson

If Johnson can stay healthy, I don't think they'll see a drop off from the number two spot in the lineup. NYS is likely to improve Johnson's power numbers, and even if they don't reach Damon's (which is likely), he'll make up for it by getting on base more often than Damon did. I think the production will be relatively similar, and I think Johnson has a shot to be even better than Damon was. Also, it should be noted that Johnson, unlike Damon, won't be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks.

3)

2009 - Mark Teixeira
2010 - Mark Teixeira

Anything is possible, but more than likely (and especially if he benefits from a full season of A-Rod behind him) we'll see similar production from out of the three spot.

4)

2009 - Alex Rodriguez (with a little Cody Ransom/Ramiro Pena thrown in)
2010 - Alex Rodriguez

If A-Rod stays healthy, the Yankees should get more production out of the cleanup spot in 2010 than they did in 2009, considering A-Rod missed the first 28 games last year and clearly wasn't healthy for awhile after coming back.

5)

2009 - Hideki Matsui
2010 - Curtis Granderson

The fifth spot in this lineup is really a mystery. Granderson will likely match Matsui's home run total from last year, but how much he gets on base is a mystery. It will probably be a bit worse, but if Granderson can rebound from last year, which isn't unrealistic, he could come fairly close. Granderson will also be able to play the nine games in NL ballparks and will never have to be removed for a pinch runner late in the game. Granderson will also be able to do much more once he gets on base than Matsui was able to do.

6)

2009 - Jorge Posada
2010 - Jorge Posada

Posada had one of the better years of his career last year, and he's getting up in age, which probably puts him in a similar boat as Jeter. He might regress some, but if he stays healthy, and the Yankees give him the appropriate amount of rest, I don't expect the drop off to be too severe.

7)

2009 - Robinson Cano
2010 - Robinson Cano

Like Granderson, Cano is a mystery. Coming off a bad 2008 season, he was very good last year, and his ridiculous splits with RISP should even out a bit this year. I don't expect him to regress much, and an improvement is possible. It wouldn't shock me if Cano is hitting fifth at some point in 2010.

8)

2009 - Nick Swisher
2010 - Nick Swisher

Coming off a career year, Swisher's overall numbers are likely to drop a bit, but while his road numbers are unsustainable, he should see a significant improvement in his home numbers. Again, a regression is probable, but with his splits evening out, it shouldn't be too severe.

9)

2009 - Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner
2010 - Brett Gardner/possible a RHH

I think they should see a slight improvement here. Gardner's numbers weren't that far behind Cabrera's last year, and with more playing time, he might be able to work his way closer to a 100 OPS+. Also, when you consider what Gardner does on the base paths, and the possibility that they'll have a lefty/righty platoon out of this spot, an improvement is probably likely. At the very least, the production should be similar.

So to recap...

1) Probably a regression.
2) Similar.
3) Similar.
4) Improvement.
5) Probably a regression in the on base department, but when you consider the difference between the two players on the bases, and Granderson's potential, similar production (or even an increase in production) is possible.
6) If used correctly, probably only a slight regression.
7) Anything is possible out of this spot, but a slight improvement wouldn't shock me.
8) Probably a regression.
9) Probably a slight improvement.

Overall, I would say this lineup is built to produce in a similar fashion as last year's lineup.

It should be noted that there are obvious factors that could change this. Among those are injuries and the return of Johnny Damon.

[Keeper]

Unbiased analysis and sound logic. Good breakdown.

[Dipre]

Only gripe i have with it is that i like Posada hitting 5th.

He's much more of a certainty than Granderson and has no real platoon weakness.

[yankees228]

Only gripe i have with it is that i like Posada hitting 5th.

He's much more of a certainty than Granderson and has no real platoon weakness.

That's fair, but I wasn't really suggesting a lineup, just laying out what I think the Yankees will do.

And Keeper, thanks, I appreciate it.

[Spudboy]

@Y228 Why are Swisher's road numbers unsustainable? I've seen this discussed before. I'd really like a better understanding of this. Also, why is there reason to expect an improvement at home?

[Spudboy]

Unbiased analysis and sound logic. Good breakdown.

Sorry for the double post. But I meant to say something like Keeper said!

[Dipre]

@Y228 Why are Swisher's road numbers unsustainable? I've seen this discussed before. I'd really like a better understanding of this. Also, why is there reason to expect an improvement at home?

Nick Swisher 2009 splits:

Home: .776 OPS.

Road: .945 OPS

When you take into context that:

A) A home-road split so defined is usually a fluke in itself.

B ) Unless the stadium is extremely hostile to hitters, home-road splits usually benefit home production.

C) Swisher was a Switchie who had the majority of his AB's lefty at Coors Field East.

D) His career home/road splits are basically even (.818/.817).

You can safely assume it's a fluke that will correct itself next year.

[Spudboy]

Nick Swisher 2009 splits:

Home: .776 OPS.

Road: .945 OPS

When you take into context that:

A) A home-road split so defined is usually a fluke in itself.

B ) Unless the stadium is extremely hostile to hitters, home-road splits usually benefit home production.

C) Swisher was a Switchie who had the majority of his AB's lefty at Coors Field East.

D) His career home/road splits are basically even (.818/.817).

You can safely assume it's a fluke that will correct itself next year.

Oh. Thank you.

[Emmz]

I think Nick Johnson's a downgrade personally, and he's played 140 games ones, and never broken the 150 barrier, while Johnny Damon has, essentially, never gone under 150 games in his career.

Johnson averages about 100, to Damon's 150, not to mention OPS+ says Damon's an upgrade even without health factors.

Matsui is substantially better in OPS+ than Granderson. Matsui's OPS+ has been around 130, while Granderson has been declining in each of the past few seasons. I don't expect him to continue to decline, but it's a trend nonetheless. I'd say he probably improves on last season, but will he improve to what Matsui did? Doubtful. He plays better defense though, and overall, I guess I'd say it's pretty even.

[Keeper]

Granderson has played 4 full seasons. In 2 of those seasons, he's had a better OPS+ than Matsui. He's also been more durable the last 4 seasons. Like I said before, hard to say he's an upgrade or a downgrade offensively. We'll have to see how it plays out.

[Imperial59]

Granderson has played 4 full seasons. In 2 of those seasons, he's had a better OPS+ than Matsui. He's also been more durable the last 4 seasons. Like I said before, hard to say he's an upgrade or a downgrade offensively. We'll have to see how it plays out.

This isn't a debate about which one is the better player. It's a debate about how Granderson's offense next year will compare to Matsui's last year. And the chances of Granderson, a career 113 OPS+ hitter, replacing Matsui's 131 OPS+ last year aren't very good. Granderson's only had one year of his career in which he produced at a 130+ OPS+ and I think it's safe to say that it was somewhat of a fluke considering he had a .362 BABIP and he's never had a similar season.

[Imperial59]

There's really only a major dropoff at the 5th spot, where the Yankees will lose 15-20 points of OPS+. But they'll gain some offense if A-Rod is healthier next year as well. They'll probably see some minor regression from a handful of other players (Jeter, Posada, Swisher) as well. Overall, they'll still be a great offense but probably not as good as they were last year.

[yankees228]

There's really only a major dropoff at the 5th spot, where the Yankees will lose 15-20 points of OPS+. But they'll gain some offense if A-Rod is healthier next year as well. They'll probably see some minor regression from a handful of other players (Jeter, Posada, Swisher) as well. Overall, they'll still be a great offense but probably not as good as they were last year.

They'll likely lose those OPS+ points, but Granderson will also be able to do more than Matsui on the base paths, and will never need to be taken out of the game late. Granted, as I mentioned in the initial post, I expect a regression out of that spot, but not a huge one.

Now, while they'll likely see minor regressions from the three players you listed, I think it's possible that we'll see minor improvements from the seven and nine spots in the lineup.

[yankees228]

I think Nick Johnson's a downgrade personally, and he's played 140 games ones, and never broken the 150 barrier, while Johnny Damon has, essentially, never gone under 150 games in his career.

Johnson averages about 100, to Damon's 150, not to mention OPS+ says Damon's an upgrade even without health factors.

Matsui is substantially better in OPS+ than Granderson. Matsui's OPS+ has been around 130, while Granderson has been declining in each of the past few seasons. I don't expect him to continue to decline, but it's a trend nonetheless. I'd say he probably improves on last season, but will he improve to what Matsui did? Doubtful. He plays better defense though, and overall, I guess I'd say it's pretty even.

Well, again, I mentioned that I'm not taking injuries into account, because they're impossible to predict. While Johnson has suffered an injury plagued career, you would have to admit that many of them are of a freakish nature, and the chances of that are significantly less when you consider the fact that he's not going to be playing the field this year.

As for their overall production, Johnson will probably have a better OBP in 2010 than Damon did in 2009, and while I don't expect Johnson's power numbers to be the same as Damon's, they should increase at NYS.

[Imperial59]

I think it's possible that we'll see minor improvements from the seven and nine spots in the lineup.

Anything's possible. It's possible they could score 2,000 runs next year. But I think it's highly improbable that they see improvement from 7 spots in the lineup.