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Thread: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

  1. #16

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial59;517991;
    Anything's possible. It's possible they could score 2,000 runs next year. But I think it's highly improbable that they see improvement from 7 spots in the lineup.
    I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. I think there's a decent chance they see improvement from the number seven spot and the number nine spot in the lineup, not seven of the spots in the lineup.

  2. #17
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    I still think the Yanks will sign Damon. They are looking to get him on the cheap, and they might get him at a very reasonable rate.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

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  3. #18

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Adding Damon back to this lineup would make this one of the best lineups ever IMO
    Hal sucks

  4. #19

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by yankees228;517996;
    I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. I think there's a decent chance they see improvement from the number seven spot and the number nine spot in the lineup, not seven of the spots in the lineup.
    You had Cano in the 7th spot. You think there's a decent chance he improves on last year, even though it was a career best OPS+ for him?
    "I don't know what to throw to you." - Joe Mauer
    "Neither does the rest of the league." - Dustin Pedroia

  5. #20

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch;518030;
    Adding Damon back to this lineup would make this one of the best lineups ever IMO
    I just don't know how the Yankees will overcome such a "massive dropoff" in offense going from Matsui to Granderson
    "I don't know what to throw to you." - Joe Mauer
    "Neither does the rest of the league." - Dustin Pedroia

  6. #21

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial59;518106;
    You had Cano in the 7th spot. You think there's a decent chance he improves on last year, even though it was a career best OPS+ for him?
    Certainly a better chance than them scoring 2,000 runs.

    In all seriousness, yes, I do think there's a decent chance. There are a couple things to consider. Cano has a ton of potential talent, and he's entering his prime, so it's not unrealistic to think that his numbers will improve. Also, if his RISP splits just even out, he will help the Yankees more in 2010 than he did in 2009.

  7. #22

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by yankees228;518113;
    Certainly a better chance than them scoring 2,000 runs.

    In all seriousness, yes, I do think there's a decent chance. There are a couple things to consider. Cano has a ton of potential talent, and he's entering his prime, so it's not unrealistic to think that his numbers will improve. Also, if his RISP splits just even out, he will help the Yankees more in 2010 than he did in 2009.
    Certainly a better chance than scoring 2,000 runs, I'll give you that

    Cano will be 27 next year, which is the typical prime of a player's career. But most players don't put up back-to-back career years. Statistically, whenever someone has a career year, they're a pretty safe bet for regression. Cano had a .326 BABIP last year as well. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see any statistical reason to expect improvement next year.

    As for his RISP splits evening out, it's probably more likely that his .376/.407/.609 line without runners on base evens out, considering that's a much larger outlier from his career averages. I don't buy the "their splits will even out" arguments about Cano and Swisher. A full season is the greatest sample size possible and it's not like these guys were hitting in an extreme pitcher's park. Maybe the splits won't be so dramatic, or they'll reverse. But just because a guy hit really badly with RISP or at home, doesn't mean their overall batting performance is going to improve the next year.
    "I don't know what to throw to you." - Joe Mauer
    "Neither does the rest of the league." - Dustin Pedroia

  8. #23

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial59;518114;
    Certainly a better chance than scoring 2,000 runs, I'll give you that

    Cano will be 27 next year, which is the typical prime of a player's career. But most players don't put up back-to-back career years. Statistically, whenever someone has a career year, they're a pretty safe bet for regression. Cano had a .326 BABIP last year, I don't see any statistical reason to expect improvement next year.

    As for his RISP splits evening out, it's probably more likely that his .376/.407/.609 line without runners on base evens out, considering that's a much larger outlier from his career averages. I don't buy the "their splits will even out" arguments about Cano and Swisher. A full season is the greatest sample size possible and it's not like these guys were hitting in an extreme pitcher's park. Maybe the splits won't be so dramatic, or they'll reverse. But just because a guy hit really badly with RISP or at home, doesn't mean their overall batting performance is going to improve the next year.
    It would simply be Cano's natural progression as a hitter. If he learns to be more patience, I believe his overall numbers (especially his power numbers) can improve. From a statistical, I would agree, there isn't reason to expect an improvement.

    As for splits evening out I think his fantastic numbers without runners on base will regress, while his awful numbers with RISP will improve (especially if he develops that patience I alluded to).

    In Swisher's case, for all the reasons Dipre mentioned on the first page, I believe his splits will normalize. However, I admitted that we'll likely see an overall regression from Swisher offensively.

  9. #24

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by yankees228;518115;
    It would simply be Cano's natural progression as a hitter. If he learns to be more patience, I believe his overall numbers (especially his power numbers) can improve. From a statistical, I would agree, there isn't reason to expect an improvement.
    There's no prototype for a natural progression for a hitter. Typically, they go up and down but their average effectiveness improves from ages 27-33. Can is coming off a career year though so the two probably average out. And Cano also broke into the majors earlier than most position players so I don't think added experience is as much as a factor as it is for most player.
    "I don't know what to throw to you." - Joe Mauer
    "Neither does the rest of the league." - Dustin Pedroia

  10. #25

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial59;518116;
    There's no prototype for a natural progression for a hitter. Typically, they go up and down but their average effectiveness improves from ages 27-33. Can is coming off a career year though so the two probably average out. And Cano also broke into the majors earlier than most position players so I don't think added experience is as much as a factor as it is for most player.
    I realize that him improving due to natural progression isn't a statistically supported argument, and it's based in nothing more than theory.

    When I look at Cano, I see an extremely talented hitter, who is already effective, yet still struggles at various important things. With an increased work ethic and some maturity (both of which I'm just hoping for), his patience might increase, possibly making him into an even more effective hitter. We'll see how it goes.

  11. #26

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Also, as I noted in the initial post, with Cano, anything is possible (meaning he could also regress).

  12. #27

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by yankees228;518117;
    I realize that him improving due to natural progression isn't a statistically supported argument, and it's based in nothing more than theory.

    When I look at Cano, I see an extremely talented hitter, who is already effective, yet still struggles at various important things. With an increased work ethic and some maturity (both of which I'm just hoping for), his patience might increase, possibly making him into an even more effective hitter. We'll see how it goes.
    Yeah, but couldn't the same thing be said about any young, talented player? Ellsbury had a .389 OBP in the minors which he's never lived up to in the majors. He's even younger than Cano and he isn't coming off a career year. Wouldn't be a better bet to improve?

    Pedroia will be nearing his prime years and he's coming off a down year by his standards, Would you say that he's a likely candidate to improve offensively?

    I try to keep it objective. If I wouldn't say one thing about a Red Sox player (notice I've never said that Ellsbury or Pedroia have a good chance of improving) then I wouldn't say it about a similar Yankees player like Cano. What's fair is fair.
    "I don't know what to throw to you." - Joe Mauer
    "Neither does the rest of the league." - Dustin Pedroia

  13. #28

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial59;518119;
    Yeah, but couldn't the same thing be said about any young, talented player? Ellsbury had a .389 OBP in the minors which he's never lived up to in the majors. He's even younger than Cano and he isn't coming off a career year. Wouldn't be a better bet to improve?

    Pedroia will be nearing his prime years and he's coming off a down year by his standards, Would you say that he's a likely candidate to improve offensively?

    I try to keep it objective. If I wouldn't say one thing about a Red Sox player (notice I've never said that Ellsbury or Pedroia have a good chance of improving) then I wouldn't say it about a similar Yankees player like Cano. What's fair is fair.
    Maybe I overstated the possibility when I said, "decent chance". I'll go back to what I said in my initial post, that his production should be relatively similar, but if he begins to hit with RISP, he might be elevated to the fifth spot in the lineup.

  14. #29

    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Cano has unrealized potential. He is definitely capable of having a better season, especially now that he's entering his prime.
    And who are you, the proud lord said, that I must bow so low?
    Only a cat of a different coat, that's all the truth I know. In a coat of gold or a coat of red, a lion still has claws, And mine are long and sharp, my lord, as long and sharp as yours.

  15. #30
    CEO of the Casas Fan Club Dipre's Avatar
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    Re: The Yankees 2009 lineup vs. the 2010 lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Keeper;518164;
    Cano has unrealized potential. He is definitely capable of having a better season, especially now that he's entering his prime.
    The problem is that he's also capable of getting distracted by nearby butterflies and sucking ass. You never know what to expect of him. Million-dollar body, ten-cent head.
    WAR is good for something.

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