None.Originally Posted by Dipre;609166;
None.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
How Torre squeezed 70 wins out of his starters in 2004 is beyond me. The SP posted a 4.84 ERA, and was good for 70 wins.
Right now, the AL East is just way too good for your SP to post a 4.8+ ERA and be good for more than 60 wins.
Look at the 2004 standings. You had NY with 101 wins, BOS with 98, and then 3rd place was BAL with 78 wins.
The Jays are getting much better (they were closer to the Sox last year than the Sox were to the Yanks), the Orioles made some nice off season acquisitions, and the Rays pitching staff is going to at least keep them in a lot of games through 7 innings.
I'm not saying I expect equal success. My point is that the two teams seem to be constructed similarly.
Pythag had them at 89-73. A good BP can sometimes help you beat your Pythag, but I wouldn't count on being 12 wins better.
EDIT: Nevermind, apparently, by your last post, the point you appeared to be making was not what you were trying to say.
Hopefully we can nail down Andruw Jones soon. He'll be a nice fourth outfielder I think, shouldn't cost a ton either.
Yeah my fault, I should have made that clearer in my initial post. The 2004 team over-performed by a tremendous amount, and it would be foolish to expect similar success this year. It's just that, on paper, the teams seem to be similar. I do think this team can win in the low 90s, especially if they replace Mitre in the rotation.
I think the Yanks are about a 92 win team. I think with an improvement from Jeter and ARod, we'll have a better offense. Our rotation will be weaker without Pettitte and the degree of that weakness will depend on Burnett and whoever we have fill out the #4 spot. And I think our pen is obviously stronger. And right now, I think the sox are about a 95-98 win team
A full season of Granderson. Russel Martin over Cervelli and our lockdown pen. Makes this team better than last year. They still need that starter. I'd like them to get Wandy Rodriguez.
I'd like them to get someone like Wandy Rodriguez or Gavin Floyd as well, but I'm also concerned about what it would cost them. The Yankees shouldn't get desperate and part with Montero in exchange for a pitcher of that caliber. I know you're not suggesting that, but with the Yankees needing rotation help (and with the other teams knowing they need rotation help), I could see it happening.
If they can get a 5+ WAR pitcher for the next 5 years (or so), then they should consider trading Montero, but not for less.
I don't think there's a pitcher like that in the trade market right now. Everyone's locked and signed. Even Floyd won't be traded now, unless Peavy is healthy or the ChiSox decide to put Chris Sale in the rotation.
I tend to agree, but I don't think that means they should settle for less in a deal for Montero.
Cervelli hit .271 with a .359 OBP last year. No power, obviously, though. I agree that Martin will be better in the future than Cervelli will be in the future, but if Martin hits .271/359 this year, he'll be doing well.
I just don't see how Granderson playing 24 more games and Martin replacing Cervelli makes the Yankees better than last year. :dunno:
I'm not saying they'll be better than last year, but I expect Granderson to have a better season than he did in 2010 (in addition to playing more games), and Martin should provide better defense than Cervelli.
Granderson made adjustments in the 2nd half, and he can implement that over the course of a full season. He'll definitely hit 35 bombs and OPS .900. Martin is an upgrade offensively and defensively than Cervelli. Cervelli's numbers are inflated by a monster April and September, don't be fooled.
It's way too optimistic to say Granderson will definitely produce those numbers. I expect his 2011 offensive numbers to be much closer to what he did in the second half last year, as opposed to the first. But I think expecting a .900 OPS is going overboard.
At the same time, I think Granderson is capable of producing a 5+ WAR this year.
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